Josh Marshall: A Few Takeaways From Tonight’s Result

[cthulu2016]

A Few Takeaways From Tonight’s Result
Marshall- January 4, 2012, 12:13 AM 5725

In no particular order, my takeaways from tonight’s results.

1. Going into tonight the idea was that Romney could come in first, second or maybe even third and still ‘win’. There was a decent logic to that. But as I hear the conventional wisdom taking shape, the result in practice (which could still quite likely be a numerical victory for Romney) seems considerably worse for Romney than one might have expected. It feels like a significant setback. In the big picture, still very hard to see how someone else gets the nomination. But a tie for first, which seemed like it would be still pretty good for Romney, doesn’t look so good in the event.

2. Given the above, the entire Republican establishment is going to be coming out in the next couple days to shut this down and say it’s Romney. We already have news that John McCain will travel to New Hampshire tomorrow to endorse Romney. The avalanche of attempted GOP establishment coronation will be one of the big things to watch over the coming days. Can they pull it off? Probably so. But now it’s from a footing of relative weakness.

3. Newt Gingrich. Newt looked tired tonight. He looked all of his 68 years. But through that he’s mad. And Newt Gingrich has a great capacity for anger. He says he’s going to keep fighting for the nomination. And at some level I buy that. But what seemed much more clear is that he has a new goal in this campaign, maybe in life: hurt Mitt Romney. That’s dangerous for Romney. There are more debates coming. Newt’s good at debates. And reporters love drama. That’s hazardous for Romney.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/01/a_few_takeaways_from_tonights_result.php?ref=fpblg

[Politicalboi]

1. Let the show begin

[SmittynMo]

25. More clown shows begin next week.

Be sure to tune in. NOT!!!!

[MADem]

2. JM has hit a few nails right on the head, here.

Romney has a problem--I can't put my finger on precisely what it is, but it is a "smarm" problem. People just don't like the guy. He's a dork who tries too hard. He has too much money, too much Brylcreme in his hair, and he comes off like the phony he is, even with an open collar and a "casual" shirt.

Newt IS an asshole. He is a petty, mean, bitter little jerk with an ego the size of his soft, enormous fishlike gut. His bobble-headed wife is NOT an asset (I can't look at her without picturing her under the Speeekah's desk, myself). He WILL go after Mittsy for shits-n-giggles. He likes to be the class bully. He used to try to do it to Clinton, but Clinton was way better than he was--Bill knew how to play Rope a Dope. I don't think Romney could do that, even if he took lessons from Clinton for a year or more.

Huntsman keeps running his ads in NH....he skipped Iowa and has been concentrating heavily on NH and he could surprise a lot of people. His daddy's PAC may well fire up a few more of these "Presidential" ads as things start heating up. If Newt and Romney start acting like a couple of carping kindergarteners, the one who will end up looking like the only adult in the room is ....The Other Mormon.

I'm waiting for Ron Paul to jump the shark. It's only a matter of time.

What a circus!

This could get interesting.

[RZM]

3. One difference from the 90s Newt

Is that back then he occupied a very powerful position and had a lot of Republicans behind him. Now he's just another candidate and has relatively little support among both the public and influential Republicans.

He will go after Mitt, but he can't sustain his campaign just on that. In order to be a real anti-Romney, you also have to have positive appeal to the anti-Romney crowd and he just doesn't have much of that. Plus Paul and Santorum will keep attacking him as well.

He's done. He'll be out well before Super Tuesday.

[MADem]

4. He knew where some bodies were buried, that's for sure.

Nowadays, there are survivors on the national scene who resent him for some of his highhanded conduct.

His only hope would be to piss Romney off and cause him to do something really dumb, like lose it and act idiotic in debate (entirely possible--Mittsy can get high strung). If he did that, he could flip Mittsy off the stage and no amount of money or endorsements could get him back on track.

We'll see how sustainable Paul is--the higher he climbs, the more his racist, bigoted crazy shit hits the news. The media are just now dusting off their Santorum files--I don't think any of them thought they'd be covering him as a candidate.

Hell, we could end up seeing some combination of a Huntsman and Santorum ticket...who would have ever thought such a thing a year ago?

[karynnj]

28. I think he already DID push Romney to something that will hurt him in a general election

That was Romney's clear statement that he will veto the Dream Act. You would think that when polling showed that even among Iowa Republicans, Gingrich's way of dealing with illegal immigrants played better than Romney's more right wing approach, he would not have gone after the most sympathetic group - the kids, who want to to join the military or go to college.

It would be something if Gingrich can get Romney to act like a fool. He actually did really over react to Perry in the debate where he offered a bet. He was clearly fuming - and it looks really bad on him.

I think he will be the candidate because I think Santorum will fade when he is vetted at all.

[MADem]

31. He's a "Say Anything" kinda guy. When he ran against Ted for Senate it was painful to see.

I expected him to go house-to-house offering to walk everyone's dog, he was so eager to do anything to win.

[JDPriestly]

5. Great analysis, MADem.

That Romney is a Mormon would not be a problem except that, as a Mormon, he is from a very different culture than are Midwestern or Southern evangelical Christians.

Romney, like George W. Bush is privilege incarnate, but unlike George W. Bush, he can't credibly imitate the down-home, country gait or speech of ordinary Americans.

The traits that make Romney second choice in Iowa might bring him in at the top of the list in the Northeast. He will probably win in New Hampshire. He could easily take Western states.

But clearly, he is not as popular as he might like in the Midwest. If Romney is the Republican candidate, Obama might benefit in the Midwest.

How Romney will do in the South is a good question.

Santorum isn't much like Midwesterns either even though he won. None of the Republican candidates are. Michelle Bachmann is just too kooky for Iowans. What a monkey cage!

I can't believe that the Republican Party will really settle for one of these characters. It's as if they all stepped out of a cartoon.

[MADem]

6. I agree. When Romney was MA governor, he spent hardly any time in

Belmont (er, his wife's home in Belmont, since sold!). He spent entire summers, long weekends, huge stretches of time, at Lake Winnipesaukee--and I'm not joking, either. It got to be absurd--there'd be floods (we had some nasty weather for awhile there), and he'd send his brain-dead LT GOV, who would style her hair, step out of the official vehicle, slap on a hard hat (carefully, so as not to muss the hair), have a few photos taken for HER campaign flyers, and LEAVE...without saying a word to the people crying in the streets, having been flooded out of their homes--it was beyond reprehensible! The Red Cross just looked, well, stunned!

If Shittsy doesn't win NH decisively, he will be in the hurt locker. He's been campaigning up there for the last eight years!

He was polling at around forty, forty three percent in the last week or so--he always seems to have trouble hanging on to his "high," though, doesn't he? He comes in with a decent number, and then, the minute people start REALLY paying attention to him, he starts to slide.

The only thing that might save him is loyalty--the idea that his connection to NH would garner the state some oddball "rewards" should he be elected. Best not tell the good citizens of NH that his crappy little lake house won't be the "summer White House" -- the bum bought an overblown mansion in California a while back.

That sneaky Huntsman has been all over NH, with his pretty wife and knockout daughters. They've been in every diner, Dunkin Donuts and downhome restaurant in the frigging state, chatting people up and being charming. Huntsman is a rich little shit, too, but he looks more comfortable in his lumberjack shirt and jeans...heck, he likes to ride a motorcycle, ergo, he's a "regular guy!" His daddy has a nice PAC full of money, and he's been doling it out carefully, on these clever little "serious" ads that make the guy look Presidential.

Every time I think "Ahh, so this is how it's gonna go," I find myself surprised. I never would have thought Santorum would have "surged" or "exploded" (although the verbiage was amusing given the context and history of the man's name). Now, I'm seeing those two 'younger' guys on the GOP ticket....



I think no matter who ends up on the GOP ticket, Obama will be able to make short work of them.

[JDPriestly]

13. no matter who ends up on the GOP ticket, Obama will be able to make short work of them.

Probably that is correct, but we should not be complacent or overconfident.

Lots can happen between now and November. Obama is far better than any Republican, but he still needs to work hard to win re-election in my view.

[MADem]

15. Fair point--I intend to work my ass off like I did four years ago.

I feel a bit more confident this time around, but I'll try to always act like we're playing catch-up!

I have the added incentive of wanting Elizabeth Warren to "have a seat" in the Senate, too!

[JDPriestly]

46. Lucky you! Getting to vote for Elizabeth Warren!!!!

Imagine Kerry and Warren both representing you.

We have Boxer and Feinstein. I really like Boxer, but I think Feinstein should retire. She has done a good job, but I think she should make a spot for someone younger to succeed her.

[newspeak]

35. well the repugs will love romney, then if he spent a lot of time away from work

I mean they loved little boots who was a record breaker for the most time spent on vacation. That's why I just got to laugh at these hypocrites complaining about obama spending the holidays away. Nothing like getting the august PDB report on your vacation at the pig farm in texas and basically stating "okay, you gave it to me." And romney, like little boots, was born with a silver spoon in his mouth, and like little boots, made money off of "suckers", I mean other people--yeah, the hedge funders, insider traders and great business minds (only if you're making money for yourself). That's what we need is another business major to completely flush the country down the toilet-right now it's swirling the bowl.

[coalition_unwilling]

16. I can put my finger on Romney's "problem" (with props to, of all people, Mike

Huckabee) -- to wit, Romney reminds me of the guys who have laid me off.

As soon as Huckabee said that (or words to that effect), I thought to myself that Hucakabee nailed it in a single quip.

[MADem]

32. BINGO--or the guy who LIED to get the promotion instead of you!

It's all about HIM....and it is so close to the surface, no matter how hard he tries to fake the "caring" schtick.

Funny that Huckabee said that, because Romney did exactly that when he was breaking up and selling businesses for their salvage value at Bain.

[renate]

17. LOL--"a smarm problem"--that is AWESOME

I have nothing to add... that is PERFECT!

[Surya Gayatri]

18. Wow, MADem, your first

paragraph encapsulates perfectly the "ick" factor with Mitt:

"People just don't like the guy. He's a dork who tries too hard. He has too much money, too much Brylcreme in his hair, and he comes off like the phony he is, even with an open collar and a "casual" shirt."

His voice and body language make my skin crawl and the furtive, desperate look in his eyes makes me cringe. Singularly unattractive personality.
How he managed to get elected as governor in MA is still a mystery to me! SG

[catbyte]

21. Ick factor is right

I'm from Michigan and I remember way back when during the days his dad was governor. I'll admit I was really young, but I remember my folks talking about him. They were staunch Democrats, but occasionally agreed with ole George. Willard, though, is unbelievable. The creep factor with him is off the charts. I just refer to him as the Plastic Panderer.

Anishinaabe in MI

[Surya Gayatri]

22. I'm old enough to remember

'ole George', too. He was a Republican of my parents' generation.

A conservative yes, but with enough of a moral compass to keep him from flip-flopping like a hooked fish, unlike his failure of a son.

[Alcibiades]

27. I lived in Michigan for a while

I agree with you.

Oddly, the most important thing about your post is that you mention "Mitt's" actual given name: Willard. Why don't people know his name is Willard? Creepy Willard=a great campaign spot.

[MADem]

34. I can tell you how he managed it!

MA has an overwhelmingly Democratic legislature, that wields a lot of clout. We could elect Attila the Hun and manage to keep him in line. We have a "weak governor" system where the governor can't get much done without "getting along" with the legislature. During Mittsy's era, we had a somewhat overreaching legislature, with some loudmouths in local/state politics who sometimes got a bit rambunctious, and Mitt's opponent was someone I liked, personally, but she wasn't resonating with the public at large--unfortunately, MA is, despite some Blue credentials, a bit of a slow-to-adapt state in some regards, and one of them is women in top elective offices--the old saw about them having to be twice as good to get half the credit is unfortunately valid, here. Also, the primary losers didn't go out of their way to throw their support/machines her way--it was kind of shitty.

He also had a ton of money, and he LIED, LIED, LIED on the incessant ads he put up. He used his "Olympics experience" and his company-destroying reputation at Bain to suggest that he had the management brains to bring jobs to the state. The best commercial (and by best, I mean most craven) was him, standing in front of a plainly "CHRISTIAN" church (and by that I mean the kind you see in Hollywood movies, in a grassy glen, white clapboards, big huge new England steeple with a cross on top), in impossibly bright sunlight under a technicolor blue sky with PIXAR-style fluffy white clouds, promising us all kinds of bullshit. Of course, he was "pro choice" back then, too! It must have cost him a frigging fortune, that ad alone! He certainly had money to burn--his ads ran every five minutes, and no, I'm not exaggerating--it was obnoxious.

So, short version: The undecided voters gave him a go and put him over the top because they didn't like Shannon O'Brien (she comes from a "machine" family that goes back generations) or were sexist, they may have believed some of Mittsy's bullshit about jobs and industry and experience (fool 'em once, won't git fooled agin, I'm betting!), and perhaps they wanted to rein in a rambunctious legislature--it was enough to give him the race, which he pretty much bought and paid for.

You see what I see in him. He sure is a furtive, desperate "skin crawling" kind of guy--I'd love it if someone would hook up one of those stress machines to a recording of his voice--he always, to me anyway, sounds like his blood pressure is in the dangerous range--even when he's just talking about something banal.

[Surya Gayatri]

48. Thanks, MADem, for taking the time

to give us this quick course on
MA politics. Fascinating!

I guess even the most liberal state in the Union has to elect a throw-back 'Republicant' once in a blue moon.
SG

[MADem]

49. Anytime--I find Mittsy fascinating, in that "car wreck you can't look away from" kind of way! nt

[Surya Gayatri]

50. Car wreck, for sure. Let's just hope the wreakage

doesn't spin out of control and destroy us all!

[yodermon]

42. "furtive, desperate look in his eyes"

wow you nailed it. His eyes have bothered me for some time, couldn't put my finger on it.

[Surya Gayatri]

47. "Shifty" comes to mind, too.

The guy sets off my "creep meter" even more than "man-on-dog" Rick. SG

[davidpdx]

23. I hate to say this

But I hope Newt reconsiders and goes full throttle after Romney. I'd love to see the two rip the *bleep* out of each other.

Bachmann, Gingrich and Perry are done. Huntsman will be done after South Carolina or Florida. We'll see how long Ricky Saintorum can hold on after his wild ride in Iowa.

[MADem]

39. It has already begun!

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-new-hampshire-newt-gingrich-takes-aim-at-mitt-romney-20120104,0,2697728.story?


Arriving in New Hampshire after his fourth-place finish in the Iowa Caucuses, Newt Gingrich came out swinging against Mitt Romney and the No. 1 finisher's allies, promising a tough campaign against “a Massachusetts moderate” whom he accused of carrying out a “relentlessly negative campaign of falsehoods.”

Mocking Tuesday night’s results in Iowa – where Mitt Romney defeated Rick Santorum by eight votes and Ron Paul finished third with 21.4% -- Gingrich said it was evident that Romney was only capable of winning over roughly a quarter of his own party.

Gingrich noted that Romney, “supposedly the front runner,” has run for president twice and spent millions of dollars yet only was able to add a small portion of votes to his tally in Iowa in 2008. “The fact is three out of four republicans rejected" his campaign, Gingrich said. “Governor Romney is a moderate Massachusetts Republican to the left of the vast majority of Republicans.”

“I find it amazing the news media continues to say he’s the most electable Republican when he can’t even break out in his own party.”

[rocktivity]

7. PLAGIARIST!

And with five minutes to spare!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=114756


rocktivity

[freshwest]

12. But great minds think alike, don't they?

[liberalmike27]

8. Romney to me is the big loser

Actually I think Paul might be the biggest winner. After all these years, he finally gets almost the same number of votes as the guy who spent a fortune. Big loser, definitely Romney, as he just can't seem to get more than one in four. People keep thinking he's going to win, but I'm still not sure. I guess I have to hand it to Sanitorum, as much as I hate to. He got the most votes per dollar spent. Perry, big, big loser, spent a fortune, got almost nothing. Michele Bachman still refuses to see the four horses of the apocalypse.

Hopefully they won't all drop out quickly like last time. It's like that Dallas and Giants game. They had to play all out, until the last minute, and beat each other up to get into the playoffs. The Giants got in, but they got roughed up too, had to win. The longer they attack, maraud and take swipes, and beat each other to a pulp, the better it'll be for Obama.

And I actually think Rmoney is going to be easiest to beat. He's insincere, has no feeling at all, and if you want a guy with Romney's policies, hell might as well vote for the guy who already has the last four years experience. And how many commercials can we make with Romney taking both positions--that's going to be great. Gingrich and Bachmann the most whacked moles.

[LiberalAndProud]

11. lol

[font size=1]Michele Bachman still refuses to see the four horses of the apocalypse. [/font]

[Surya Gayatri]

19. LOL! Well, she may have gotten

a glimpse of them, but refuses to admit that "the end times are near".

The whole team of four will have to drag her kicking and screaming from the primary stage. SG

[freshwest]

14. Only correction I'd make is that Perry didn't spend a fortune, it wasn't his.

Most outrageous thing he did was pass his security costs to Texas taxpayers while he gallivanted across the country for a non-state related tour to show himself off. It's a toss up who's a bigger crook, Perry or Gingrich.

The Huntsman guy seems sane, but Romney appears to have lost his cookies. He used to come off as having a little sense. I'm sure the media is going to make a fortune off this traveling circus.

[TomClash]

9. They can pay off Gingrich

Santorum and Paul? Not so likely.

[LiberalAndProud]

10. 'a great capacity for anger'

I don't know why, but that just made me

[4dsc]

20. Romney lost because over 75% of Iowans voted against him

I guess most people are missing the bigger picture here but the "anyone but Romney" vote was huge with over 75% of republicans voting against Romney.

[SmittynMo]

24. Which makes Obama the winner.

This isn't rocket science here folks. The GOP is toast. I was glad to hear the outcome today.

[WI_DEM]

26. Well, aren't many of these primaries proportional in terms of delegates?

so it could go on a while. I think Santorum will get a boost out of Iowa (after all he is in effect a co-winner), that's not to say he will be the nominee, but he could go a bit further. I think he has a shot at South Carolina.

[MADem]

40. South Carolina could be a problem for Santorum, because Perry is staying in.

Some say his sole role is to "spoil" for Santorum.

[ewagner]

29. Pass the popcorn! n/t

[DallasNE]

30. The Untold Story Of Iowa

Is turnout, or rather, lack of turnout. With a record amount of coverage and money spent the turnout was average at best. Republicans are lukewarm with this field of candidates. The winner in Iowa wasn't really "landslide" Romney but President Obama based on this tepid turnout.

[hifiguy]

33. Newty is gonna go after Mittens with a

rhetorical chain saw. An ego as big as Gingrinch's ain't gonna go quietly and he will do as much damage as he can to everyone else, especially Mittens, on his way down.

[MADem]

36. It has already begun--the morning news shows are giving us a look at a NASTY

print attack ad that Newtie took out in local NH papers. The gloves are off!

[hifiguy]

37. This could be lots of fun!

[MADem]

38. Tell me about it! And with this morning's surprise announcement by Perry

that he's staying in (to spoil Santorum in SC, is the thinking) it's going to get even MORE fun!

Wonder if Mittsy paid Perry to make that happen?

[yardwork]

41. I wonder if Gewt paid Perry to make it happen.

[MADem]

43. I don't know if Newtie has the spare cash--he was slow paying his Tiffany bills! nt

[yardwork]

44. It's been suggested elsewhere that Perry may have been promised a VP slot if he helps stop Santorum.

Perry is dumb enough to believe this.

[MADem]

45. Sounds like perfect bait -- could be the reason he changed his mind! nt

[uponit7771]

51. +1, the guys pissed, Mitt pissed the guy off for no reason at all and now he's going to nip at him