538: Trump Is Only Popular In Rural Areas

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

The 2018 midterm election confirmed America’s urban-rural divide; Democrats excelled in cities, Republicans dominated in the country and the suburbs were the tiebreaker that handed Democrats the House. Will the 2020 election play out the same way? This week, we got two polls of President Trump’s approval rating that suggest it might.

First, a Selzer & Co. (one of our favorite pollsters) national poll conducted Nov. 24-27 for Grinnell College found that Trump had a 43 percent approval rating and a 45 percent disapproval rating among all adults. However, his support isn’t distributed equally across different types of communities. He’s enormously popular among residents of rural areas, with a 61 percent approval rating and a 26 percent disapproval rating. In small towns, that breakdown is 44 percent approve vs. 42 percent disapprove. But in suburban areas, only 41 percent of residents approve of the job that Trump is doing as president, while 50 percent disapprove. Trump’s approval rating is lowest among urbanites — 31 percent approve of him while 59 percent disapprove.

We saw similar geographic trends in an Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP poll that was conducted from Nov. 26 to Dec. 2. Trump again got the highest marks from residents of rural areas — a 62 percent approval rating and a 35 percent disapproval rating. And yet again, his standing took a nosedive among suburbanites and urbanites. In suburban areas, Trump’s approval rating was 32 percent, and his disapproval rating was 60 percent. In urban areas, his approval rating was 27 percent, and his disapproval rating was 67 percent. (The IBD/TIPP poll didn’t include “small town” as an option for respondents.) Overall, Trump’s approval/disapproval spread was much lower in the IBD/TIPP poll (39 percent approve, 55 percent disapprove) than it was in the Selzer poll, which explains why the IBD/TIPP poll is worse for Trump in all three geographic categories as well.

Here are the results of the polls side by side:

-more-

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-really-popular-in-rural-areas-other-places-not-so-much/

[northoftheborder]

1. I cannot understand why more than 10 percent ANYWHERE would support him.

[Garrett78]

3. Racism is a potent drug.

[Grasswire2]

12. they simply live in an alternate reality

Really.

Nothing that we see and hear daily enters their perception.

[uponit7771]

23. +1, on the other hand the Russia Trump Tower thing is an emotional slap and could be a break. They..

... are running from it like roaches from Raid on mixed aisle forums.

[nycbos]

13. "If you can convince the lowest white man he is better than the best...

... colored man he won't notice you picking his pockets."

-LBJ

[Garrett78]

2. This is what makes taking and maintaining control of the US Senate so challenging for Democrats.

The concentration of liberals also makes it easier for Republicans to gerrymander effectively.

[EndGOPPropaganda]

4. This is because Fox and Limbaugh brainwash rural areas, who aren't exposed to real, national news

[allgood33]

11. This is exactly right. Driving thru the red states Rush is on at least 5 channels at the same time.

We need some of those millions being thrown at progressive candidates to be put behind buying ads and programming in those Rush-bot areas.

[blueinredohio]

14. Whatever idea someone comes up with to get rural voters to change from red to blue I'm all for it.

WE NEED ALOT OF HELP.

[FakeNoose]

19. Well, this is a failing of the Democratic Party IMHO

The Dems need to reach out to the rural areas, and show them that it's not all about racism.

Our Party needs to counter the hate-radio message with real facts and real programs to help THEM. If we did that it would make all the difference, because it's more than the Repukes are doing now. There's so much confusion and misinformation thanks to Faux News and Rush Limbaugh.

For example the rural low-information folks hate Obamacare, but they want the ACA. They hate welfare, but they depend on their monthly disability checks. They depend on migrant farm workers at harvest-time, but they want to build "the wall." A little outreach would go along way for these people.

[Liberty Belle]

20. Bingo. That is exactly right.

Many rural residents do not have access to a daily newspaper or most local TV stations.

[uponit7771]

24. +1, see my post about Trump Tower though ... that's an emotional kick for them

[SHRED]

5. A high concentration of racists live there

[More_Cowbell]

6. Unfortunately, rural areas have outsized political importance

Maybe someday we can change that.

[Garrett78]

8. Yep. See post #2.

[Wellstone ruled]

9. Lot of truth

in your observation. Couple of things to consider in Rural Polling. First,use of landlines and the selected Demographics used or not used. Secondly,which Voter Segment did they use.

Something about the polling in the last 2-3 years seems odd . Who and what is their methodology,caught something during the last election cycle,they were using voter lists from 2012 and 2014 of persons who voted only,and by party registration and not a mix of Parties.

[lostnfound]

22. We need ways to unify the culture, not divide it. Just diminishing rural's political power

Won’t solve the problem.

[struggle4progress]

7. Trump disapproval almost nonexistent now in ghost towns!

[Hermit-The-Prog]

10. there's a rat with a maga hat under that couch

[House of Roberts]

16. Is that the same rat Trump has in his pocket when he uses the word 'we'?

.

[Initech]

15. How do you explain my area then?

Went overwhelmingly for Trump in 2016 and we're a major metropolitan area. Lots of Fox bots and MAGAts here.

[TheBlackAdder]

17. WTF? There are a lot of crackers in NJ too.

[Initech]

18. I live in Orange County, CA.

This county went ultra hard right in the last few years. We've always been a major GOP stronghold (hell, I see the Nixon library driving to work every day) and I've never really understood it because we are California. Thankfully we've been seeing a turn around especially in this election with every district flipping blue.

[Wounded Bear]

21. Orange County is a major financial hub...

lots of banks and insurance co's with scads of money. Concentrated in Newport Beach and Irvine around the airport.

Was good to see this cycle how they came around to being blue.