Examining Exit Polls: How 2006 compared to 2018

[pecosbob]

Linking this story from DK as it has some interesting breakdowns on exit polls...

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/12/13/1817789/-Examining-Exit-Polls-How-2006-compared-to-2018?utm_campaign=spotlight

A section I found particularly interesting...

Religion in American Politics is really White Evangelical vs. Not

We use language to describe religion in politics casting those who are religious in broad terms as opposed to those who are not religious. However, these exit polls help to shed light on why we need to be more specific. While it was true in both 2006 and 2018 that those who attend religious services weekly are far more likely to vote Republican than those who never attend religious services, the most notable divide is white evangelical Christians versus everyone else. White evangelical Christians made up nearly the same amount of the electorate in both elections (24% vs 26%), yet the demographic got even more conservative. In 2006, this group voted for Republicans 70-28, while in 2018 it voted for Republicans 75-22, an eleven point shift in margin. Meanwhile, the category of “not white evangelical” got even bluer, from 60-38 D in 2006 to 66-32 D in 2018. Put next to each other, it might be the most clear way to define the country: one quarter of the country votes for Republicans 75-25 while the remaining three quarters of the country votes for Democrats 66-34. That result is enough to produce a healthy Dem win, but even in good GOP years, there is still a huge divide between these two groups, which is simply fascinating. Put more plainly, it’s a divide that doesn’t get talked about enough and it dwarfs all other religious divides in American politics.

White people got more Republican, but there’s also less of them

Young people are now even more Democratic leaning than they were in 2006

The electorate was more liberal- but also more conservative

Your views on the (current) President increasingly determined your vote for President

*my clarification

A lot of people were willing to ignore a good economy to punish the President’s party

Education is now a defining divide in American politics

The gender gap was bigger

Conclusion

The 2018 Midterm revealed many of the faultlines that our current politics are going to be fought along in the years going forward. Any of these trends can be interpreted as important but if I had to single out two as most important, I’d likely go with education and partisanship. Education is rather obvious because it has huge implications for the political map: urban/suburban communities and educated states/jurisdictions are moving towards Democrats, while rural areas and states/jurisdictions with low levels of education are moving towards Republicans. That vicious partition has real consequences for the way parties act both moving forward but also in the present, like how Wisconsin State House Speaker Robin Vos (R) seemed to believe that Milwaukee and Madison are not legitimate or meaningful communities since they overwhelmingly vote for Democrats in a recent comment. That type of rhetoric is likely to be amplified in the coming years as these divides continue to cement themselves. As for partisanship, it helps to explain what we’re seeing in the Senate and the House and helps to set expectations moving forward. Most notably, the days of Senate elections like 2008, where Democrats easily won races in South Dakota, Louisiana, and Arkansas despite losing decisively in those states at the presidential level, are long gone. Finally, I want to note that the point about the economy has important ramifications for 2020 and is not good news for President Trump, but that is a post for another day. For now, I hope I provided interesting enough data and analysis and I will see you again soon.

[JI7]

1. "white evangelical" is really white supremacist

[Voltaire2]

2. Not really. There is overlap of course.

But these are distinct sets.