Will the Democratic party have a brokered convention?

[still_one]

7 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	Yes
	2 (29%)
	No
	4 (57%)
	Don't Know
	1 (14%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[Garrett78]

1. More than likely. With so many candidates, getting to 2383 on the first ballot is unlikely.

There may be 15+ candidates on the Iowa ballot and we could still have half a dozen candidates after Super Tuesday.

Or we may see 1 candidate dominate. Hard to say.

Ironically, the DNC's superdelegate change may actually result in superdelegates having more power than ever before.

[still_one]

2. If that happens I think things might get quite ugly

[Amishman]

3. I think the specter of Trump will keep us from excessive infighting

A brokered convention doesn't worry me. I expect a vigorous primary slate to expand voter familiarity with our rising Stars and build our bench for decades to come.

[Garrett78]

4. Hopefully 1 candidate will have a substantial lead in pledged delegates.

After Super Tuesday, I'm hoping it's pretty clear who our nominee will be, even if there are still a handful of candidates. If Harris were to do really well in Iowa and New Hampshire, the race will be over quickly. If those who are expected to do best in IA and NH are, in fact, the ones who do best, the media narrative - at the very least - will extend the race.

The entry window is closing for those not named Biden and Sanders. The likes of Inslee and Brown had better make the leap if they're going to do so.

[still_one]

5. Harris has an advantage in California, and California moved up its primary to a few days after Super

Tuesday. Iowa and NH are given too much importance. Especially in Iowa, since it is a caucus state.

Super Tuesday, and California this year could determine it quickly.

I also disagree with your assessment that the entry window is closing for Biden and Sanders

If Biden were to announce within the next two weeks, I think that woud change the entire dynamic. Even without announcing he leads in all the polls that assume he is running significantly, and I think it is more than just name recognition.

I would be surprised if Biden didn't announce that he is running.

and I definitely agree with your statement:

"Hopefully 1 candidate will have a substantial lead in pledged delegates."

[Garrett78]

8. CA is *on* Super Tuesday. And that's not what I said about Biden and Sanders.

I said Biden and Sanders (and O'Rourke to a lesser extent) can take their time, but the window is closing for lesser-known candidates. The likes of Inslee and Brown need to start raising money if they're going to run.

It's absurd that IA and NH are the 2 states that kick things off. They don't reflect our electorate. It'd be much better if Illinois and Arizona or Maryland and Florida were the states that get the ball rolling. Anyway, Harris doing well in IA and NH would set her up very nicely for NV, SC and Super Tuesday. I look forward to voting for my Senator on Super Tuesday.

Sanders doesn't have a chance, but if he runs, he'll impact the chances of Warren, Brown, Inslee, etc. If you're Warren, you're really hoping that Biden, Sanders and Brown stay out of the race.

Biden is the big wild card, though I expect people will be reminded of why he's fallen well short in his previous attempts (plural) to get the nomination. In the Me Too era and with his history of gaffes, I don't think he'll perform as well as some think he will--and polls right now reflect little more than name recognition. That said, Biden would certainly suck a lot of air out of the room--at least initially.

[still_one]

10. I'm from California, and I messed up, it is on super Tuesday, not a few days after, thanks. Biden

hasn't been making his not so subtle comments after the 2016 election how "he could have won", and other such references if he had no intent of running in my view.

I think Sanders will run also, not to my liking though, but that would impact Warren much more than Brown in my view.

I think it is more than name recognition for Biden. I think both Biden and Brown can appeal to a more diversified group of the populace than the other candidates, especially in regard to labor.

While I hope your assessment is correct that after Super Tuesday it will be essentially over, I don't think so, especially if Biden, Sanders, and Brown run.

[Garrett78]

15. The polls this far out are almost entirely a reflection of name recognition.

If I had to guess, I would guess that Biden will run. I'm sure he's lured by the (bogus) narrative that says the Democratic Party must nominate a white male in order to win battleground states and defeat Trump. His history of gaffes, his history with the Thomas-Hill hearing and the fact that he would shatter the record for oldest president in US history (while our electorate is getting younger and more diverse) are reasons why I don't think he'll be our nominee. And I don't think he would perform as well in the general election as a few of our other options. Contrary to what some seem to believe, winning over white male Trump voters is not going to be the key to taking back the White House. Our base is the key. What led to success in 2018 is what will lead to success in 2020.

Brown, Warren, Inslee and Sanders (and maybe Klobuchar and maybe O'Rourke) would all appeal to, more or less, the same subgroup of our electorate. They'll split the vote in Iowa and New Hampshire. And they would take votes from Biden in both of those states. I'm not sure what role Gillibrand will play, but I suspect she will drop out fairly early.

I only said that it would essentially be over after Super Tuesday if, say, Harris or Booker or Castro or O'Rourke were to do really well in Iowa and New Hampshire (such as winning one and finishing second in the other). Because the momentum and media narrative would give that person a big boost heading into Nevada and South Carolina. If any of them have a substantial delegate lead heading into Super Tuesday, the rest of the field is in trouble. Depending on how those first four contests go, California could either save Harris or propel her to victory.

Biden (or Brown or Warren) doing really well in both Iowa and New Hampshire would certainly be big, but I wouldn't count out the rest of the field, especially if Harris or Booker or Castro or O'Rourke has a strong finish in those states. Because NV, SC and the Super Tuesday states (especially CA and TX) will favor whichever of those non-Biden candidates does well enough in IA and NH to remain a contender in the eyes of the electorate and media.

[denbot]

6. Nope.

[still_one]

7. I hope you are right

[Garrett78]

9. Who do you think will get to 2383 on the first ballot?

[backscatter712]

11. No, I think this one will end far better than previous ones.

Let the best Democrat win!

[Garrett78]

17. 2383 delegates on the first ballot is a tall order.

[tinrobot]

12. Definitely maybe

[brooklynite]

13. WHY does this question come up every four years?

We haven't had a brokered Convention since 1952. More specifically, we haven't EVER had a brokered Convention since we opened the Primary process up to the national electorate.

[Garrett78]

16. The superdelegate rule change and the size of the field makes a brokered convention more likely.

2383 delegates on the first ballot is a tall order. We'll more than likely have a second ballot, and that alone will be called by some a brokered convention if there's any indication that wheeling and dealing is taking place among the superdelegates.

[brooklynite]

18. We had six major candidates in 2008...I don't recall a problem

A brokered convention assumes that everyone holds onto their delegates until the last minute. That's never been the pattern of behavior.

[Garrett78]

19. Again, there's a significant new rule in place for 2020.

Superdelegates can't vote on the first ballot. That wasn't true in 2016, 2008 or any year prior.

And we're going to have a lot more than 6 major candidates this time around. Klobuchar makes 6, and it's a year until Iowa.

[MineralMan]

14. The question is premature. Ask again in 2020.