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RandySF

(58,511 posts)
Sun Feb 10, 2019, 02:40 PM Feb 2019

58% of Virginia African Americans was Northam to stay in office.





Larry Sabato

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Some seem fascinated by the fact that WaPo poll shows 58% of African-Americans don’t want Northam to resign. But Northam got 87% of the black vote in Nov. 2017. You could argue this is a drop in support of 29%. #CommonwealthofChaos
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58% of Virginia African Americans was Northam to stay in office. (Original Post) RandySF Feb 2019 OP
But a majority is still a majority. Igel Feb 2019 #1

Igel

(35,274 posts)
1. But a majority is still a majority.
Sun Feb 10, 2019, 03:44 PM
Feb 2019

It may have been 60% the day before the picture controversy first broke. In which case only 2% is because of that news. Maybe his abortion-bill comments are responsible.

I think it highly unlikely, but it may be that it was lower than 58% the week before the story broke and rose in response to perceptions that Northam, who received 87% of the black vote, was being attacked by Republicans.

It may increase or already have increased. It may plummet as the news percolates, and might already have dropped. That's the problem with snapshots--you can't tell what else is going on. All you see is the snapshot and whatever others tell you you're supposed to see. Or maybe the WaPo poll was wrong--after all, every poll has calculated error, but that just means the actual value is between the error bars, not that the actual value *must* be between the error bars. (And what, exactly, *was* the calculated uncertainty for this poll? 0.00001%? 3%?)

Even worse, the snapshot only matters if it confirms what you already knew to be true or supports actions you want taken. Or can be made to mean what you think it should mean.

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