I'm beginning to warm up to a Joe Biden run.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

He's not my first, second, or third choice but beating Trump is a moral imperative.


The rest is commentary...

[mainer]

1. Me too. He's the only Dem who out-polls Sanders

And I've come to distrust Sanders.

[Garrett78]

2. I know people love polls, but all of these polls, including the hypothetical matchup ones, are...

...meaningless at this juncture.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. The fact that Bernie is trailing Trump by 12 in NC and AZ

The fact that Bernie is trailing Trump by 12 in NC and AZ, states we should at least be competitive in, and he could be our nominee scares the shit out of me.

[mwooldri]

12. Any polling is very early.

From my interactions with sane R's in NC, Trump is viewed as keeping his promises (somewhat). That's why he has good support among his base.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. PA, WI, MI, and FL would flip before NC but we should be competitive there.

[mwooldri]

16. The ground is favourable for a D win in NC.

A senatorial election, Roy Cooper will probably run for a second term, the R's electoral shenanigans have been exposed in southern NC, Trump's negatives still outweigh his positives.... Forced redraw of the electoral map ... It should be a D season.

[onetexan]

30. Excellent point

If we can win in NC (ala Cooper) we can win nationally

[Garrett78]

14. Polls that give the impression that he could be our nominee are exhibit A of what I'm saying.

Sanders has no shot at becoming our nominee. As I posted yesterday:

Sanders won't be in a 1-on-1 race, and he won't be running against someone who millions had been conditioned to hate over a period of decades. 2016 was tailor-made for Sanders. He was the only option for the anti-Clinton crowd.

2nd in Iowa and 1st in New Hampshire propelled Sanders forward. I don't see him doing as well in those states in 2020, even as they remain 2 of the whitest and most rural states in the US (how wonderful that we give undue influence to a couple of states that don't remotely reflect our electorate). If he does relatively poorly in Iowa and doesn't win New Hampshire, it'll be quite embarrassing for him. So much so that I could see him dropping out before South Carolina, if not before Nevada.

And Super Tuesday, assuming he hasn't already dropped out, will be even worse for him than it was in 2016. He'll lose badly in nearly every contest that takes place on March 3, 2020. Not to mention South Carolina 3 days earlier.

Plus, there will be fewer caucuses.

Anyway, he'll find it much tougher to justify sticking around, and I suspect there will be quite a bit of pressure on him to leave the race (including pressure from within his camp).

That there are people who seriously think he's a contender, or even the favorite, is dumbfounding. Reality will provide a swift smack.

As for Biden, now 76, there are reasons why he has come up way short of becoming our nominee in his previous attempts (plural). Pre-Obama Biden was never all that popular with our electorate. It remains to be seen if he can do as well in the primary as some seem to think he can. He's gaffe-prone among other things.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. I hope your analysis is correct.

[Garrett78]

20. I see no reason to think Sanders will do better among POC than he did in 2016.

That means he's essentially done after New Hampshire. Seriously, that's basically the end of the line for Sanders. Vermont and its 16 delegates won't save him on Super Tuesday.

And he has continued to stick his foot in his mouth with regard to matters of racism and sexism. He just can't help himself.

[PTWB]

19. I question, but welcome, your analysis

I feel like Bernie has a large core of supporters. In a 2 person contest like 2016, his core wasn’t large enough to best Clinton.

But, if Bernie keeps most of his core, and the remaining primary voters are split between two or three other viable candidates, he could very will win with a plurality.

[Garrett78]

22. For starters, I don't think the field will remain large for very long.

Secondly, Sanders would have to do much, much better among POC and non-millennial women in order to have a chance. I don't see any reason to think that he will.

[PTWB]

24. I just feel like we will have several strong candidates split that vote

I could be wrong but I could easily see Bernie winning if he’s up against more than one other candidste. Even two would give him a great shot if he keeps most of his core. POCs and women splitting their vote between Kamala and Warren, while Bernie keeps his young / white core... I don’t know, it just seems way too early to write him off.

Personally I am most enthusiastic about Kamala. She seems to have whar I’m looking for in a serious candidate.

[Garrett78]

34. Warren is more likely to take votes from Sanders. Same with Brown if he runs.

And Biden would hurt both Sanders and Warren in New England.

[onetexan]

31. Agree, he pissed off a whole buncha ppl including myself

When he declared he wasnt a Dem after the general election. His base w not be as large.

[Garrett78]

35. Long before that, he did very poorly among POC and non-millennial women in the 2016 primary.

That's why we knew by Super Tuesday of 2016 that the race was essentially over.

[awesomerwb1]

3. Still early re: those polls but

I would like Joe to run and win with a female VP. Universe forbid any health issues or something, but then we'd have a female President.

Of course I'd prefer Mr Mueller to "run".

[handmade34]

4. Biden has

always been my 1st... he would be an excellent President

https://www.americanpossibilities.org/

[MoonRiver]

5. Whoever can run that POS out of office and, hopefully, into prison

works for me.

[maxsolomon]

7. I'm not.

But I'm in DU's horrible Ageist Faction.

[BlueStater]

32. Ditto.

Not real big on the idea of having an 80-year-old president. If that makes an ageist, then whatever.

[bluestarone]

9. Waiting here

I want to know the complete story. Whom they ALL chose for running mate! Gonna be a LONG two years!!!

[CrossingTheRubicon]

10. We live in a nation that for better or worse elects presidents via the Electoral College.

Joe Biden is the Democrat who is by far the ablest to defeat Trump in the EC.

Many potential nominees could win the popular vote. But that's not how we elect presidents in this country.

2020 is a great chance to elevate a young liberal Democrat to be Vice President, with a great liberal at the top of the ticket.

Let's be smart. Let's win!

(I caught the Rabbi Hillel reference, BTW)

[yortsed snacilbuper]

11. Plus he rides the train!

[Sugarcoated]

25. Nooo

you don't say?

Gooooo Joe!!!!!

[Maru Kitteh]

17. I would prefer to see one of our younger people like Harris catch fire, but I'm MORE

than fine with Joe.

[Kahuna7]

18. Emerson polling 2/16: Biden by 10%. Bernie by 2%

Link to tweet

2020 Ballot:

Trump 45% v. @JoeBiden 55%
Trump 47% v. @ewarren 53%
Trump 49% v. @SenSanders 51%
Trump 48% v. @KamalaHarris 52%
Trump 47% v. @BetoORourke 53%
Trump 49% v. @amyklobuchar 51%
Trump 49% v. @CoryBooker 51%
Trump 48% v. @SherrodBrown 52%

[peggysue2]

21. I have a warm spot for Joey Biden but . . .

he needs to make up his mind to commit or not. The ongoing flirtation--he will/he won't--is already getting old and he'll need the fund-raising base, donors and campaign people in place before those elements are tapped by other campaigns. Though all of this is happening way too early, it is happening. Joey needs to jump on the train. Or not.

That being said, Biden can beat Trump by cutting into his base and has the chops to get the country back on track while healing our international relations. With a young, up-and-coming VP candidate, this is a winning ticket.

[flamingdem]

23. Biden/Harris for the win

though I'd prefer Biden/Beto

[Sugarcoated]

27. Same!

All winners

[Vinca]

26. I think he's golden until he actually announces. Then the negative things on Joe

get dragged into the spotlight 24/7. They'll be the Clarence Thomas hearings, the foot-in-mouth disease, etc. Personally, I think the way Anita Hill was treated back then is a huge deal when it comes to a presidential run. At least it used to be a big deal. Everything is relative when you have an admitted "pussy grabber" sitting in the White House. Don't get me wrong. I like Joe and would have no problem voting for him, but he's not among my favorites in the race. I honestly wish both Joe and Bernie would sit this one out and give the younger generation a shot.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. Joe can quote Keynes

"When the facts change, my opinion changes. What do you do, sir?"

[elleng]

29. 'Beating Trump is a moral imperative.

[comradebillyboy]

33. I'm not crazy about Biden but ABBS will work for me