Venezuela: Please explain

[yellowwoodII]

Before John Bolton and other hawks get us involved in a war with Venezuela, I would like to know why we are threatening to expend blood and treasure there.
This one sneaked up on me

[atreides1]

1. The standard lie

"To save the people of Venezuela and restore democracy!" Pretty much the same reason used each time the US wanted access to a resource or had decided that brown people weren't capable of fixing their own problems!

You weren't expecting something new or original were you?

[world wide wally]

2. Oil

Again

[GulfCoast66]

21. No. We already had all we wanted.

[world wide wally]

29. There is no limit to greed

[DetlefK]

3. Maduro is a dictator who's running VZ's economy into the ground while enriching himself.

* Maduro has dismantled democracy in Venezuela and stacked the courts with cronies.

* He employs militias, the "colectivos", who attack his opponents with legal impunity.

* Again and again circumstantial evidence pops up that his administration deals with criminal gangs at the colombian border.

* The infrastructure has collapsed due to lack of maintenance even back when Venezuela still had money, and Maduro variably blames Venezuela's infrastructure-problems on heat from the sun being too close to Earth, the CIA or iguanas.

* The economy is in freefall and Maduro's only idea is to nationalize companies. He also tried to run a cryptocurrency scam, but nobody was stupid enough to buy the "Petro".

* According to estimates, 2-4 million Venezuelans have already left the country. People with higher education are leaving in droves to look for better jobs in other countries.





So, tell me: Do you regard it as the moral duty of the US to help people in other countries?

[JonLP24]

7. Sanctions has impacted Venezuela's economies

No doubt Maduro is a Mafioso thug but we are pulling out of Syria (where Assad bombs his own people) or the House of Saud that regularly suppresses their Bahrain population or the Eastern Arabia population who tend to be Shia who the Wahabbi government doesn't recognize as Muslims.

I would go down the list starting with the worst human rights violators but the fact Republicans are strongly behind this is not a good sign. They are more concerned with privatizing countries than they are for human rights.

[DetlefK]

8. The same old mistake: The enemy of your enemy is NOT automatically your friend.

Just because Trump dislikes Maduro, that doesn't somehow make Maduro the good guy.

Just because the US dislikes Assad, that doesn't somehow make Assad the good guy.

Just because the US disliked Gaddafi, that doesn't somehow make Gaddafi the good guy.

Just because the US dislikes Julian Assange, that doesn't somehow make Julian Assange the good guy.

[JonLP24]

10. Wait a minute I want to replace Assad because he is a human rights violator

Trump is the one pulling out of there but our goal was also ISIS not really human rights or Assad. Of course there was a red line but how many times has that been broken.

Last thing I think is Assad as a good guy. I called Maduro a Mafioso thug. The Neocons interest is those private corporations that would love an oil contract.

Libya is a bad example. He nationalized oil production improved literacy rates he was an enemy of Reagan because he nationalized oil production. In recent years he was very quiet (so was Saddam for that matter who according to the CIA officer that interviewed him said he handed day to day operations to one of his sons and spending his time writing a novel.

The House of Saud is a far more brutal regime but they are capitalist and hate communists.

I don't think Assange is a good guy ever since he worked with the Russians and Roger Stone.

[DetlefK]

14. Read the Amnesty International report on Assad's torture-dungeons.

[JonLP24]

17. I want Assad replaced

I also want the House of Saud replaced.

I'll try to be clear. I support removing Assad because he bombs his own people (which I mentioned). I know well about his human rights violations. Trump is the one pulling us out while suddenly tough talking Maduro.

Read about Saudi Arabia's brutal suppression.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahraini_uprising_of_2011

Nimr Baqir al-Nimr (Arabic: نمر باقر النمر‎, translit. Nimr Bāqir an-Nimr;[1] 21 June 1959 – 2 January 2016; also Romanized Bakir al-Nimr,[4] al-Nemr,[5] al-Namr,[6] al-Nimer, al-Nemer, al-Namer), commonly referred to as Sheikh Nimr, was a Shia Sheikh in al-Awamiyah in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province whose arbitrary arrest and execution was widely condemned, including by governments and human rights organizations.[7]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nimr_al-Nimr

He was a non violent activist.

Not to mention they're among the worst countries for women's rights.

[Adrahil]

11. I see this so often here.

Both Trump AND Maduro are bad guys. Both can be, and are, true.

[JonLP24]

12. I called Maduro a Mafioso thug

Have you heard of Central Africa Republic or other places with brutal human rights violations and where is our involvement? The neo cons interest is about the oil not human rights.

[Adrahil]

19. 2 things....

First, I am making defense of Republican wingers. None. They are bad actors.

Two, That does not justify ignoring a failed state in our own back yard.

[JonLP24]

20. The CAR is "the most neglected crisis in the world"

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_in_the_Central_African_Republic

I just find this particularly target and sanctions harm countries economies and effect the poorest populations while leaders can absolve the brunt of those sanctions.

I definitely support the moral duty of the US to help people in other countries. In practice it is hypocritical and this particular country as a target has long been on a US enemies list before Maduro became head of state. Venezuela reminds me of Iraq especially with all the press attention while I have to dig deep to find human rights abuses in other countries that are either allies or ignored by the US.


Key findings are as follows:

Economic sanctions lead to an increase in the poverty gap and deprived sections of the population feel the most impact.
For the most part sanctions fail to achieve their aims and elites manage to negotiate the adverse effects to a far greater level than poorer citizens.
Sanctions have a damaging effect on income inequality and impact ordinary people more than the sanctioned country’s leaders.
Sanctions tend to harm rural and non-industrialised areas more, as resources are refocused in power and production centres.
Economic sanctions have a negative impact on the cost of reconstruction and economic growth following the lifting of the sanction(s) or regime change.
Sanctioned regimes often attempt to magnify the sanctions’ negative effect on the economy to prevent the population from revolting.

https://gsdrc.org/publications/impact-of-economic-sanctions-on-poverty-and-economic-growth/

[Adrahil]

24. I'm not disagreeing that CAR is in crisis.

But you don;t have to dig deep to find major human rights violations in Venezuela.

And I'm not saying the USA should a take a leading role. I am saying Maduro is a villain.

[JonLP24]

30. I agree with both points in your last paragraph

I have to dig deep because lack of media coverage of US allies or countries that are simply ignored. Like bring back our girls.

[CrossingTheRubicon]

15. I do regard it as the moral duty of the US to help people in other countries.

Your analysis is spot on.

The Democratic Socialist government in Venezuela has descended into a corrupt and illegitimate dictatorship where the people are suffering.

Meanwhile, the DSA (Democratic Socialist of America) is chanting "Long Live the Bolivarian Revolution!"

[Jake Stern]

22. So why haven't we invaded Sudan?

Or Zimbabwe? Or Turkmenistan?

They are all human rights violators on a grand scale, far worse than VZ.

[Oneironaut]

26. Honestly, I don't see any of those as a valid pretext for war.

Where is the threat to the US?

We wouldn’t be “helping” Venezuelans. We’d be killing them. We’d be asking Americans to die.

We have no valid pretext for war. Attacking would be an act of aggression against a sovereign country. To do so would be a tremendous, devastating mistake.

[malaise]

4. OIL

That is all

[Perrenial Voter]

5. As usual, it's not a very well thought out policy because

those who would benefit are not the ones who will have to pick up the pieces. However, there is at least one stakeholder that has not yet been heard from: China, which has displaced the World Bank as the predatory lender of choice in Venezuela. How this is resolved is very important because it will provide clues about whether China tries to act in a more benevolent manner than other lenders and whether their competition with other nations for resources is likely to lead to war.

[okaawhatever]

6. One the macro level, the US, UK, EU, and about 50 other countries consider the curent president

illegitimate. They are using the constitution that was written after Chavez took power in 1999.

Not so brief explanation:

Brief explanation:
2015: Opposition to Maduro won a supermajority in Congress (their congress, the National Assembly or NA)

Lame duck assembly packs their scotus-the TSJ-with judges who support Maduro. Seemingly unconstitutional appointments since only 2 judges present their credentials and all were appointed before the full review period.

2016 The national election commission certifies the elections. The TSJ says no, 4 of the elections were fraudulent, just enough to end the supermajority. A supermajority can remove judges btw. NA swears the legislators in anyway. TSJ then finds the NA in contempt and declares everything they do illegal. They have overruled every piece of legislation the NA has passed.
The TSJ decides they will have budgetary oversight, not the NA, as required by the 1999 constitution.

Maduro decides to basically create a parallel congress using Emergency powers.

After a period of unrest, opposition parties try to hold a recall election. Maduro gov’t screws with that too. They add new rules that aren’t in the constitution to make it impossible to win.

More riots, marches, and protests happen demanding a presidential election. Maduro enters negotiations with opposition under int’l oversight but then unilaterally announces an election for roughly 90 days away. Maduro then decides to hold elections for every post in the country, even though the terms weren’t up. Just his way of consolidating power.

There were hundreds of other problems with the election, including the voting machine maker saying the results were inaccurate, but it doesn’t really matter since the elections weren’t constitutional.

One of the many constitutional challenges hinges on the fact that only the National Assembly can call elections. Since Maduro created his own fake congress, they didn't have the power to call elections. BTW, this is the 1999 constitution, the one written when Chavez came to power.

Under the 1999 constitution, if there isn't a legitimate president, the leader of the National Assembly becomes acting president until free and fair elections can be held. Juan Guiado is leader of the nat'l assembly, that is why most OECD countries recognize him as acting President.

All the stuff about the US wanting their oil is bullcrap. VZ owes a couple billion to Russia and China under a cash for oil loan program. VZ isn't producing enough oil to meet their commitments to them under the loan payback program. They're the ones most interested in VZ's oil.

[DetlefK]

9. +1

[DetlefK]

13. Let me tell you a story about the socialist regime of Romania.

Romania has a fertile climate that's excellent for agriculture, it has mountains for mining, it has forests for logging, it has oil, it has access to the Black Sea, for tourism, for fishing and for trade.

And yet the socialist regime during the Cold War somehow was able to drive the country into poverty and food-shortages. Plus, the ever-present corruption. Plus the oppression by the secret police. Plus, you were not allowed to travel to western countries, because of the Iron Curtain.

In 1989, the situation had reached a critical point. In less than a week a small protest about a mistreated pastor grew into nationwide protests against the regime.
The dictator announced a major speech.
The dictator held the speech from the balcony of his palace, with thousands assembled before it.
What was this speech?
It was the same old tired promises and slogans that his regime told all the time.
Then and there the protesters stormed the palace and street-warfare broke out.
The army refused to shoot at civilians and stayed neutral.
After a week of chaotic and bloody shootouts the rebels were able to somehow defeat the remaining guards of the dictator.
The dictator was arrested and executed, just to be safe.





When that critical point comes in Venezuela, the people of Venezuela will not be able to get rid of their dictator. Because the venezuelan army has no qualms about shooting people.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

16. What was Venezuela like before Chavez was elected?

What was the standard of living for the poor and working class?

[EX500rider]

31. Before Chavez/Maduro..

....80 to 90% of the population was not in poverty and food was widely available.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shortages_in_Venezuela

Don't like Wiki, here's Human Rights Watch:

https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/05/18/hostages-hunger-venezuela

[yellowwoodII]

18. It alll sounds so familiar

Cruel dictator
Oppressed people
We have to save them
We get involved militarily
Our sons and daughters are killed in the process. So are theirs.
I think of Iraq and Vietnam

[Jake Stern]

23. *cough* Oil *cough*

If it were about humanitarian concerns we would have booted President Bashir of Sudan and Zimbabwe’s Own Robert Mugabe years ago.

[albacore]

25. One of my favorite quotes....

`I believe that if we had and would keep our dirty, bloody, dollar soaked fingers out of the business of these (Third World) nations so full of depressed, exploited people, they will arrive at a solution of their own. And if unfortunately their revolution must be of the violent type because the `haves' refuse to share with the `have-nots' by any peaceful method, at least what they get will be their own, and not the American style, which they don’t want and above all don’t want crammed down their throats by Americans.' –
Gen. David Shoup, United States Marine Commandant Medal of Honor recipient. 2 Purple Hearts
I’m proud to say that Gen. Shoup was my Commandant during the first part of my time in the Corps.

[disillusioned73]

27. Very enlightening & informative article

from the great Greg Palast;

[link:https://www.gregpalast.com/in-venezuela-white-supremacy-is-a-key-to-trump-coup/|

"On January 23, right after a phone call from Donald Trump, Juan Guaidó, former speaker of Venezuela’s National Assembly, declared himself president. No voting. When you have official recognition from The Donald, who needs elections?

Say what?

I can explain what’s going on in Venezuela in three photos:"

[guillaumeb]

28. It started with the Monroe Doctrine.

What many call the legal basis for the US Empire.

The US always tries to control everything, but especially the Americas.