Potential Benefits (and some drawbacks) of a Shrinking Retail Industry

[MineralMan]

1. Reduced Automobile Traffic - Where are all those cars going? Well, during rush hour, they're taking people to their jobs, mostly. Jobs in places that shortly after the workers arrive, the customers do. Retail, banking, and other customer-oriented businesses depend on customers coming to them. Between rush hours, much of the traffic is consumers going to the places the workers were going. Add to that all of the trucks on the road, carrying workers to service-related jobs at customer's locations. If consumers aren't going to brick-and-mortar destinations, the workers won't be needed, and the traffic will be reduced both at rush hours and between. {Drawback: Fewer jobs in the businesses people aren't driving to.}

2. Reduced Fossil Fuel Consumption - Less traffic, less fuel consumed and less pollution and greenhouse gasses from that burnt fuel. {Drawback: None.}

3. New Employment Opportunities - If people aren't driving to retail establishments, their stuff will get delivered, instead. If people don't need to drive to places to buy stuff, they may need fewer vehicles. Delivery people and drivers of transportation, including mass transit vehicles will be needed. Installation and setup workers - So, you order something that requires set-up, installation, or assembly. New jobs will be created to handle those needs. There are already people making a living just assembling IKEA stuff. There will be a lot more of that kind of work out there. Opportunities for solopreneurs and entrepreneurs will increase. Other jobs related to central sales and distribution, of course, will also be created. {Drawback: Not everyone is suited for such jobs, and fewer employees will be required, due to centralization.}

4. Availability of Existing Empty Buildings - Malls, standalone retail buildings, office buildings and others will become available for alternative uses, such as housing of all types, schools, recreation facilities, and other needs. Converting such buildings for new uses will employ construction workers, and the new uses will also require staffing. {Drawback: There may be more buildings available than are needed.}

Those are just some things that might occur. Things are changing, though. That's clear. Maybe it's time to start thinking about how to make those changes work toward positive goals, rather than simply complaining about the changes. You might have other ideas about how such a shift will affect people's lives. I'd be interested in reading those ideas.

[BSdetect]

1. Schools as we know them may not need these facilities.

I doubt if conversions would be very economical.

Tearing down many buildings might be the norm

But its likely this vision may never happen as we rarely foresee the future accurately.

[Moostache]

2. The reduction in fossil fuel may will be minimal at first...

The delivery system of today is based on roads, bridges, trucks and cars. If people do not go to retail and retail delivers to them instead, then there is a reduction in fossil fuel use but not as great as it could be when multiple delivery trucks or cars will be required for people to receive their orders.

If the use of drones and alternative delivery systems increases (nearly certain, as cost control will drive this), and people abandon the freedom of movement that an automobile provides (VERY unlikely, I just can't see suburban, exurban and rural people ever moving away from personal automobiles), then a more drastic reduction may become possible, but we are a long way off from that IMO...

Retail job disappearance, coupled with AI, automation and driverless long haul trucking will absolutely upend the existing business model - (nothing new really...not too many horse drawn carriages remaining from 100 years ago now) - but there will be some new industries and opportunities...the bigger question to me is what do we as a society do when those opportunities are not enough to go around? To maintain a viable economy, the people at the top must recognize a fundamental truth - if no one has jobs or wherewithal to purchase goods and services, then there will not be any transactional economic activity, there will be rampant crime and theft and civil disorder.

Those who have - and are currently amassing fortunes nearing the Trillion dollar barrier - are going to have to recognize the math does not support their way of life much longer. People with no jobs, no skills or no way to make an actual living will not just lie down and die. They will fight, violently if necessary, to survive. We can either begin that discussion now, or much later and after a lot of carnage in the streets.

A shared economic future is possible, but not with the current unrestrained capitalist path. Regulated capitalism via progressive taxation policies was what built an empire after World War II (along with easy access to American oil and gas and energy from 1945 through 1975). Regulated capitalism can succeed again in my mind, but only if refocused away from consumerism and shopping and focused on restructuring the way we generate, store and use energy. Between climate change demanding this and the evolution of the current market also pointing in a similar direction, the longer we wait and debate nonsense with fools, the more likely it becomes that wars and death and destruction will have to happen before the inevitable shift takes hold...but change is frequently destructive to humanity...it was in the 1870's and again in the 1930's and nearly was in 2008...but it doesn't HAVE to be that way, we just lack the ability as a species to recognize that still. Even after the horrors of WWI and WWII and the multitude of wars and genocides since then.

[crazycatlady]

3. the delivery jobs you mention

Unless you're working for a major shipper (USPS, Fedex, UPS), then they're most likely 1099 jobs and people using their own cars (similar to Uber, but for stuff instead of people). Much has been written about the real wages of Uber drivers, so I'm not going to discuss that.

Retail (and others in the mall like food service) is a first job for many. High school students used to talk about which mall store they wanted to work at. Many people work retail/food service before they even have a driver's license.

I just searched Craigslist for DoorDash, a food delivery app. Drivers must be at least 18. The age for many mall jobs is 16.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

4. The biggest drawback for me is going to be

not being able to see, or handle, or sample, or try on what I'm wanting to buy.

Clothes, and especially shoes. I'm a reasonably standard size in clothes, but I absolutely must try them on as not everything in my size fits. Shoes are worse. I actually have a small range in shoe size, depending on the shoe or maybe who makes it. Plus, I have a serious bunion on my right foot, and three-quarters of what I try on won't fit properly.

A local grocery store is now offering a service where you can order on-line and pick up the completed order. Nice, but I want to take an actual look at any and all food items, other than canned or frozen stuff. Yesterday I went grocery shopping and bought a pot roast, choosing from several that were on the shelf for the one that was the right size and looked good enough to me. Same with pork chops. Same with the carrots, onion, red and yellow peppers, and zucchini that will be a veggie stir-fry.

[MineralMan]

5. I don't use grocery delivery for the same reason.

For clothing and shoes, though, I know which brands of shoes and clothing fit me properly if I order my size. I hate clothes and shoe shopping in stores. So, I buy all of that online.