Trump's Margin of Error Is Smaller In 2020

[applegrove]

Trump’s Margin of Error Is Smaller In 2020

March 17, 2019 at 11:52 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 329 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2019/03/17/trumps-margin-of-error-is-much-smaller-in-2020/

"SNIP.....

Mike Allen: “Based on demographic changes, Republicans for the first time have authentic worries about Arizona, Georgia, Texas and other states they once took for granted. Trump’s margin for error this time is much smaller, because he’s being squeezed from the north and the south.”

“From the north: Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are harder this time because Hillary Clinton, a turnoff for many working-class voters, won’t be on the ballot.”

“From the south: Demographics are making North Carolina, Georgia, Texas and Arizona more competitive, and realistically in play.”

....SNIP"

[Awsi Dooger]

1. Definitely true but incumbency helps him

Studies like that always miss the point when they evaluate the open race and incumbent race as identical.

Tons of benefit of a doubt to the incumbent, no matter what it looks like and especially if his party has been in power only one term.

We really need an economic downturn in early to mid 2020 to help knock him out.

[MarvinGardens]

2. Yes, based on facing an incumbent...

...our odds are only about 1 in 3, if that were the only factor. Right? But how do Trump's unusually low approval ratings throughout his presidency factor in?

I really enjoy your posts, BTW.

[Bradshaw3]

3. Dems shouldn't be listening to Mike Allen

Hard guy to pin down. Really conservative background. Going for those states would be fool's gold in my opinion. Much better to focus on the ones we lost in 2016.