question about "charisma" (in particular, as relates to lichtman's keys)

[unblock]

for those unfamiliar with lichtman's model for predicting the presidency, here's good recent rundown for how the keys play out for 2020:
https://macroaffairs.com/13-keys-to-the-white-house-2020-allan-lichtman/books/

two of the keys relate to candidate "charisma". it's a high bar, usually described as applying to candidates like fdr, jfk, and reagan.


my question is, does donnie qualify as "charismatic" for this purpose?

obviously, to me and most everyone on du, he's the opposite of charismatic. repugnant and repellent in more ways than one.

but he does clearly inspire intense support, albeit in a minority of the population.

so my question is, is it possible to be "charismatic" for this purpose while consistently having record-high disapproval numbers?

is "enjoys popular support" a necessary condition for being "charismatic"?


personally, i think it's more of a deliberate decision to pander to a narrow group rather than genuine "charisma". most any candidate could inspire strong support within a narrow group if they consistently told that group that they're the only real americans, everyone else is not worth as much, etc.

[hlthe2b]

1. Hitler was said to emote DARK charisma--in spades.

Trump studied Hitler's speeches (per his former wife Ivana's own admissions) so I guess his provocative cult-inspiring "magnetism" likewise fits the mold.

[dawg day]

2. Cult leaders are charismatic to their cultists-

But they don't appeal to anyone else.

If Trump wins re-election, frankly, this country is doomed. And it could happen because you don't need a majority or even a plurality of votes to win, as W and Trump have shown.

Republicans could probably win forever that way. It's depressing.

GOTV is the only way, esp. in swing states. We need more kids voting! They care about their future, and aren't so likely to be nihilists who vote for someone who clearly wants to destroy things.

[Whiskeytide]

3. Unfortunately, it would seem ...

... recent history has revealed that racist asshole is not a “narrow” demographic in the US. I think that skews the Lichtman keys analysis to the point of making it a worthless metric.

I’ve said many times that trump and trumpism are new in US politics (or perhaps not “new”, but previously unrecognized and/or thought to be absent from our political landscape), and thus don’t fit into modern conventional analysis.

We have to stop thinking we can predict what’s going to happen based on what has happened over the last 75 years.

[unblock]

4. i think at best it's more accurate to say we may have thought we left that behind.

in truth that "narrow" demographic has had a major influence on politics in the united states since before there was a united states.
we though we put it to rest in the 1860s and again we thought we put it to rest in the 1960s.

they keep wielding influence outsized compared to their numbers.


unclear whether this makes predictive models problematic this cycle. the reality is that bigotry has played a role in all elections. donnie's merely more all-in about it.

[Whiskeytide]

5. That probably is a better characterization. I'm afraid ...

... that our problem NOW is that he activated a segment of the population that previously had been disengaged from politics. I base this on new voter registrations in Alabama in the run up to the 2016 election. It occurred at very high levels in very red counties here. I suspect it was the most deplorable of the deplorables - people coming out of the hills and swamps to support the very worst he represented. Signing up to vote for the asshole in record numbers. (I actually posted a “concern” post here in September 2016 - worrying that if a similar phenomenon was taking place in swing states it could be bad - and was shot to Hell for it).

Well - they are STILL registered to vote, and they have so enjoyed the misery of the “libruls” for the last 2 years that they will certainly come out again in 2020. I don’t think they are yet accounted for in our conventional election models. So much post 2016 decompression has focused on Obama to Trump voters, 3rd party voters and Bernie Bros (all of which I believe was fairly consistent with previous elections on the whole) that this new group has been ignored or at least underestimated. I live and work among them. They are here now and I’m not sure what we can do to make them crawl back under their rocks.