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Sat Mar 23, 2019, 12:42 PM

 

Trying to Apply a Common Sense Theory to the Russia Investigation and the Mueller Report

Well, I've followed the 2016 campaign and the Russia Investigation as closely as any layman can. I was 21 years old when Watergate hit and I didn't miss a minute of the hearings or much of what was reported at the time.

Here's my take on where we are right now. I believe that Jim Comey is a good man, but was overly cautious and wanted to be known for fairness. He fucked Hillary during the campaign...twice. I don't think he did it out of malice. I think he did it out of hubris and the belief that Hillary couldn't lose.

Now, let's start out with some agreed upon, common sense assumptions. The Russians were diabolically brilliant and the Trump group are greedy, cheap, narcissistic morons, in most cases. In the case of Manafort, he's a little different. He's an out and out traitor. I believe that Trump was concerned about the Republican convention and didn't want his inexperienced group to screw up the nomination. Trump's trusted corrupt buddy Barrack suggested Paul Manafort captain the ship in Cleveland. Trump either didn't know or didn't care about Manafort's corrupt, treasonous recent past. He had the experience to make sure he didn't lose this nomination. Then, when Manafort offered to work for no pay, that sealed the deal to the cheap, greedy Trump. I believe no one knew or no one cared that Manafort was close to Russia and dictators. Manafort, on the other hand, was in debt up to his eye balls with the Oligarchs in Russia and he saw this as a way to get whole. The change in the party platform was just a "good faith gesture" that he could produce for his masters.

The Russian Intel Group out of St. Petersburg, Russia, hacked John Podesta's emails. To see how history can change because of a single small event, some IT guy tells Podesta the infected email is good, instead of no good. The rest, as they say, is history. Once into Podesta's emails, the Russians have access to everyone at the DNC. But Russia's intel agents are not stupid. They want Trump to know that they are helping him (and hurting Hillary), while involving the Trump Group in the smallest way. They have their guy Manafort right inside the campaign, but they want to make sure the top guys, including Trump, know that Trump owes the Russians, win or lose. So, they set up the bogus meeting at Trump Tower on June 9, 2016. Jerad,. Donnie Jr., and Manafort. The email explains to Don Jr. that the Russian government wants "your father to win" and has "dirt" on Hillary Clinton. This was a test run. They talked about sanctions in the guise of adoptions. It was planned out from the Russian side. Would the closest people to Trump, after the meeting, go to the FBI like any red blooded American would? Or, would they seek out the info. The fact that the Trump group took this meeting at all served two purposes for the Russians. It signaled that the Trump's would be silent partners in this scheme and the Russians would have "Kompromat" on Trump's family. The Russians now knew what to do.

The emails went to WikiLeaks, who dropped them at key times in the campaign. The Russians didn't need to coordinate directly with the Trump campaign. The campaign already knew they owed the Russians and WikiLeaks. "Russia are you listening" and "Wikileaks, I love Wikileaks", Trump bellowed from the campaign trail. The Russians felt that the only way this thing could fail is if they got the Trump campaign too directly involved, because they were cheap, greedy, traitorous, incompetent assholes. The Russians wanted complete control of the events.

Trump wins and Comey investigates. The full horror of what just happened hits everyone like a ton of bricks. Now, it's everyone on the gravy train. The inauguration committed, Kushner Inc., Flynn making deals during transition. The barbarians have stormed the walls.

Comey's out, Mueller's in. Trump knows what transpired. But here's the rub: Thinking a crime occurred is not the same as knowing that a crime occurred, which is a far cry from proving that a crime occurred.

Mueller knows that a conspiracy occurred. Usually, that's enough for an indictment, because all you need is probable cause. But Mueller, like Comey before the election, wants to guard his reputation. Mind you, both good men. Both honest. But both using standards that are beyond the regular order of prosecutorial business. Comey applying the rules to loosely. Not charging Hillary, but then vilifying her against the standard procedure. And now, Mueller using the higher standard of "proof beyond a reasonable doubt" to indict. "Probable Cause" brings indictments. "Beyond Any Reasonable Doubt" is the standard for a conviction.

In summary, the Russians only needed to make sure that Donald Trump knew that they were using every method possible to help him get elected and that he owed, with Manafort originally as the linchpin. Since the Russians didn't need the Trump team at all after Manafort left the campaign, it is difficult to get "beyond a reasonable doubt" standard to charge this lot of no good miserable traitors.


Good men making bad decisions fucked this country before the 2016 election and now it's happening again, after the 2016 election.

The American people get one bite of this apple in 2020. If we fuck up, if we become divided or if we don't put up the most winnable candidate, this country will never recover. We cannot rely on anybody but ourselves to right this ship. We should act like our lives depend on this next election, because they do.

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Reply Trying to Apply a Common Sense Theory to the Russia Investigation and the Mueller Report (Original post)
louis c Mar 2019 OP
RHMerriman Mar 2019 #1

Response to louis c (Original post)

Sat Mar 23, 2019, 12:55 PM

1. John Brennan made an interesting point on the Trump-Russia case early on:

John Brennan made an interesting point on the Trump-Russia case early on: he said something like "sometimes people start on the road to committing a crime not because they are criminal, but because they are stupid."

That doesn't excuse it, especially if the subject compounds their stupidity through later actions, but it can help explain it.

The classic case is the honeypot; US soldier or sailor, or businessman, in a position of trust, is overseas, lonely, tired, and living on per diem; lovely local starts paying attention, and an affair begins; then the American is blackmailed by the lovely local's actual employers to start handing over the goods or face exposure.

Just because it's one of the oldest tactics in the book doesn't mean it doesn't work.

Without any more information, I think your summary is certainly a possible explanation of how this situation began; and how it plays out is, as you eloquently put it, up to the citizenry.

Using 1932 as the guide, in 2020, we can elect the equivalent of FDR, or we can re-elect the equivalent of Hoover crossed with Benedict Arnold and Huey Long.

Choose wisely...

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