On the UK, Brexit and...Norway
For those trying to follow the bouncing ball of Brexit votes, here's where things currently stand:
Brexit was approved by 52% of the voters, who are divided up into two groups: Hard Brexiters who want a clean break from the EU (after which, supposedly, they'll be able to enter into one-to-one trade and economic agreements) and Soft Brexiters who want a framework agreement in place with the EU (addressing things like trade, visa-free travel and the status of Britons living abroad). Soft Brexiters are in turn divided into two groups: one wants only a basic framework, with negotiations on trade to follow, and the other wants a trade agreement in place before the UK leaves.
Theresa May has tried (and failed) three times to pass a basic framework bill. Parliament has, on it's own, also held "indicative votes" (non-binding, bus expressing Parliament's presumed will) on a range of alternative strategies. These have all failed because either Hard Brexiters, Soft Brexiters or Remainers have blocked the alternative group's measures.
Where things currently stand is that, IF Parliament fails to approve a plan, the UK WILL exit the EU next Friday. That means British citizen will have no default right to travel to Europe, will be subject to EU customs checks, and will have no rights to remain in residency in EU countries. More importantly, the UK will have no trade agreements in place with the EU, meaning trade will result to far less desirable terms imposed by the WTO.
Today, Theresa May is proposing a 4th attempt at passing a basic framework Bill with little expectation that it has a greater likelihood to pass than it did last week. What's new in the equation is a likely Indicative vote for a "Common Market 2" strategy. This is derived from the model of Norway, which is not a member State of the EU, but IS a member of the European Free Trade Association (the "Common Market" in historical parlance), and imposes a single set of trade rules with all EU members. This is hated by Hard Brexiters who want to be able to negotiate individual treaties. However, in the last round of Indicative votes, Common Market 2 came the closest to passing.
Common Market 2 is likely to pass only if the Tory Government offers support, since 170 Tory MPs have already signed a letter demanding an April 12 exit under any or no terms (if an agreement is reached, the Brexit day would be move to May to allow enabling legislation). That means a voting coalition of Tory Soft Brexiters, Labor (which has now endorsed Common Market 2), Scottish national Party and Democratic Ulster Party (in alliance with the Conservatives, but concerned about the border issue with Ireland) would be needed. However, the latest news is that May is allowing backbenchers and "Junior" Ministers to vote freely, but seniors members are supposed to stick to the Party line or resign.
The program today will be: a procedural vote to again allow Indicative vote amendments (likely to pass), and then votes on one or more amendments from different points of view. Stay tuned.
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