New Sunday NBC poll has Trump approval at 46%

[Funtatlaguy]

Seriously, WTF America? How is it this high?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/hung-jury-public-remains-divided-over-mueller-probe-new-nbc-n1001886

[tymorial]

1. That was my first impression too

[greymattermom]

2. He's tough

and Democrats look like they're backing down. Only the tough can win.

[NoMoreRepugs]

3. Fox and Reichwing radio have been working overtime.

[manor321]

4. If the Mueller report results were serious, wouldn't Democrats be impeaching?

And Democrats aren't impeaching, so it can't be serious. Just more "Washington D.C. infighting".

That's the impression left by the inaction of Democrats (and the wholesale defense of Trump from Republicans)

[Trumpocalypse]

12. Stop blaming Democrats

[BeyondGeography]

16. This is what happens when you don't fight back effectively

Deal with it.

[Trumpocalypse]

21. Who says they are not fighting back effectively?

[BeyondGeography]

25. Pelosi fan Charles Pierce for one

Her inner conflict on impeachment has created an incoherent message.

I truly am not following the eleventy-dimensional chess here. She tells her caucus that the president* is behaving in exactly the way that Nixon behaved that brought articles of impeachment down on his sinful head. Then she tells the country, fck it. Those soulless robots in the Senate won't convict him anyway. The problem is that she and her Democratic majority in the House, the place where the Founders lodged the impeachment power, are running out of options.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/amp27355012/nancy-pelosi-impeach-donald-trump-democrats/

Trump, otoh, full speed ahead...People don’t have the time for nuance. Our failure to pre-sell the parts of the Mueller Report to them that we knew would be incriminating, ie green-lighting Russian interference and obstruction, cleared the way for Barr to play offense.

[Trumpocalypse]

27. One person's opinioin

The Mueller report is not the end of the process, it is just the beginning.

[cilla4progress]

37. This

poll!!

[Trumpocalypse]

39. Polls reflect many factors

It's just unfair to blame everything on the Democrats.

[StarfishSaver]

43. Unfair, but strategic

[Trumpocalypse]

44. Strategic for whom? nt

[zaj]

17. I don't see it as a blame, more of a reality...

The Mueller Report was much less actionable than had been expected. That's not the Dems fault, it's their reality.

Barr's plan to control the political message worked as intended to a degree.

[Trumpocalypse]

22. Right it is not the Dems fault

Anything else is a blame.

[TwilightZone]

79. Haven't you heard?

Everything is always the Democrats' fault and they never do anything about anything.

It's like people slept through the past few months.

That line of reasoning has grown increasingly tiresome, and I'm coming to the conclusion it's either intentional ignorance or the same BS we dealt with here in 2016.

[Trumpocalypse]

81. So true unfortunately nt

[Sunsky]

33. I agree nt

[triron]

38. Good overall impression for Trump.

[Butterflylady]

5. It isn't

Depends on who they polled. Remember the media likes to keep it a horse race. They need their ratings.

[zaj]

18. That's not how polling works

Your see right to the extent that they have an incentive to talk about horse race but polling is an established science. It's hardly perfect but it follows a standardized process.

[kentuck]

6. A poll is not appropriate for a national security issue...

In my opinion, some issues are too complex or too confusing to be judged by a poll.

Just my opinion.

Donald Trump is a national security issue.

[lpbk2713]

7. Respondents have a diminished collective short term memory.

He might have been right about shooting someone on Fifth Avenue.

[Funtatlaguy]

11. Plus the MSM keeps feeding "great economic" news.

They don’t go into wage stagnation.

[Botany]

8. I don't buy this # for a second

Republicans own the media.

[Andy823]

23. Yes and NBC

is owned by Comcast, and the WSJ is owned by Rupert Murdock.

[Andy823]

9. So out of 900 people

there are 414 who think trump is doing a great job. Sorry I just don't think that 414 people show a real view of how things "really" are!

[Iliyah]

13. They only polled 900?

And there will over 300 million people in the USA?

That is some bullshit.

[zaj]

19. Statistical sampling works.

That's not too small of a group.

It can be wrong still, but the polling process isn't flawed.

[Andy823]

24. Sorry I don't buy it. nt

[Loki Liesmith]

31. Math doesn't care whether you buy it

[safeinOhio]

34. Math does depend on

sample selection.

I'd have to see that.

[Loki Liesmith]

46. Internals are available but

Dunno why anyone looks at individual polls anymore.

The poll averages have been more or less steady for almost 1.5 years.

[Andy823]

74. Thats life. nt

[treestar]

59. It might be getting too old fashioned in some way

Polls showed Hillary winning.

[sarcasmo]

58. Was it landline or cell phone polling? Landline polling leans Senior voters .

[Terry_M]

10. People are used to the usual crazy twitter rants and no longer care...

and the economy seems to be doing pretty well overall at least.

[ProudMNDemocrat]

14. The laws of Gravity often prevails....

What goes up, has to come down.

It is early yet. The more Dicktator Donnie obstructs justice and pisses on the Constitution, people are going to turn. Trump is losing women and Independents. Latinos, African-Americans, Asians, the millennials who will inherit this country are hopefully listening and watching what is taking place. They want a free country that the Founding Fathers fought for and created for us.

Call me an idealist. But I refuse to lie down and accept . I will continue to fight in any way I can. Dicktator Donnie will not be able to take away my Freedoms. Neither should he take away yours. Spread the word. VOTE in 2020.

[Thekaspervote]

35. +1000

[Baitball Blogger]

15. I won't believe those polls, unless they include a test question.

The question is a simple one: Do you watch FoxNews?

Because, I think it's crucial to determine if FoxNews viewers are over representing those polls.

[zaj]

20. Yep... Over representative issues are important.

[Andy823]

28. I agree

If they polled all the states that's only like 18 people from each state, and it all depends on what part of a state they poll. Some ares of a state are more red and the numbers would be higher.

[LibFarmer]

26. It is the economy

Stock market is high, unemployment and inflation are low.

[Andy823]

29. And trump

Is still a corrupt ass hole who is bilking millions from the taxpayers to put in his own pocket. Not to mention the complete mess he has made in his foreign policies, immigration, tariffs , etc.

[Loki Liesmith]

30. Please take a statistics class.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampling_error

[LovingA2andMI]

72. THIS..

But most cannot pass the class -- which is why we are were we are.

[uponit7771]

32. 49% think either 17% impeach or 32% investigate !! This poll has always had high approval numbers...

... for the last year.

Its the impeachment numbers that look good for now

[triron]

40. So many Americans don't care if they have a dictator, so long as they think economy is ok.

[lunatica]

41. I stopped believing these polls a while back

It’s just an attempt to keep the pseudo horserace going.

Every MAGAT I know has gone silent on Trump. I know it’s only anecdotal but if it’s a fact in my life it’s a fact in other’s lives. None will convert to our side, but they will stop trusting him. It’s like being in an abusive relationship. After a while you get it.

[democratisphere]

42. Roughly half the country is rethuglicon and insane.

Nothing new here.

[Azathoth]

45. Economy's still doing well, Mueller punted, and Dems are all bark and no bite

I've heard several Trumpers who a year ago were clearly afraid to even mention Trump remark recently that they still support him despite the "ridiculous media bias." They're feeling emboldened now and the fence-sitters are coming back to him.

This is the Dubya years all over again.

[John Fante]

56. One (still) mediocre poll and DUers lose their shit.

😂

[Drunken Irishman]

61. It's not just this poll...

He's seeing an uptick in other polls, too.

[John Fante]

62. Meh. Unless you put a lot of stock into Harris and Rasmussen

Trump's popularity is still garbage.

[bearsfootball516]

67. A lot of DUers refuse to believe reality sometimes.

They see something like this and just scream “fake poll!” Just because they don’t like it. Hell, look at the post below mine.

[BlueStater]

47. Bullshit. I don't believe it.

How is possible for his approval ratings to even fluctuate like this? Are there really that many assholes in this country who can't make up their minds about him? What the fuck is that matter with them?

Liking him makes more sense than being neutral about him. Jesus Christ.

[Azathoth]

48. His real support has always been slightly higher than the polls indicate

There's a small margin of people out there who are secretly rooting for him but are too embarrassed to admit it, especially during periods when he's screwing up worse than usual. Those are the ones who sway back and forth.

[Stellar]

49. Trump is riding on Obama's economy that he created 96 months ago.

That's the only strength that the public seems to give Trump credit for.

We MUST fight back with our Policies BIG TIME. Medicare for all, free college or trade school, daycare for kids, etc. That's the winning ticket as I see it.

The last polling that I saw last week had most of our candidate beating Trump and the lowest contender was Warren and she tied him. So no matter who the winner of the Democratic primary is let go in to whip Trump's ass.

[Blue_true]

50. George H.W. Bush was at something like 70%

18 months before Bill Clinton defeated him. Life changes fast.

[uponit7771]

51. ************THIS POLL IS REGULARLY AN OUTLIER*******************

Look at polling history, while Gallop and others have had red don in the mid to high 30s this poll has had him in the mid 40s.

[former9thward]

57. Not really.

Only one poll lately has had him in the 30s and that was Reuters at 39%. The rest have had him in the low or mid 40s including Gallup which had him at 46%.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

[John Fante]

65. He's right. NBC has been more Trump-friendly than other pollsters

since his presidency began. Gallup was likely just an outlier. His 43% average (skewed by seemingly daily Rasmussen polls) is about right. Given the state of the economy, it's a dreadful number.

[former9thward]

66. The Hill and Harvard-Harris had him at 46%.

So are all 4 polls "outliers"? Which poll in the average is not an outlier? Is Reuters, which at 39% is the lowest, an outlier?

[bearsfootball516]

69. FiveThirtyEight heavily downweights Rasmussen

To make it more accurate.

[John Fante]

70. Fair enough. Trump's average is still at a dismal 42.7%.

Trump is easily beatable. The unemployment rate hasn't been this low this long since the late '60s. LBJ was the president then and while his popularity was shit too, he had the Vietnam War weighing him down. Trump has Trump weighing him down.

[PufPuf23]

52. Frankly I can see zero reason to trust corporate media (or any other)

polls at this point in time.

But it is also sobering to realize how many people are OK to animated by Trump.

[Eliot Rosewater]

53. It may be that this country wants to be racist no good fuckers

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

54. Nixon won the 1972 election by a landslide, and his approval was at 67%

in January of 1973. A year and a half later, in August of 1974, it was 24%. Things can change in a hurry.

[empedocles]

60. traitortrump still dominating the news cycle.

Dem coverage voices predominantly campaigners and their particular program proposals.

[Biden and Pelosi are the exceptions].

[Oneironaut]

63. Because of the economy and jobs.

It’s also why, without a massive effort by The Democrats, Trump will win re-election.

Trump has a massive advantage at the moment. Anyone who says otherwise is deluding themselves. It’s why I don’t think Democrats are taking this seriously enough.

We’re losing at the moment. We need to push the momentum back against Trump. If we don’t, he’s going to win. We simply aren’t doing enough, and we need to start now. Our leaders need to get off their butts and start spreading our message throughout the country.

[John Fante]

68. What advantage does he have?

His approval ratings are terrible and they're pretty much baked in at this point. 46% of the vote isn't likely to cut it in 2020, and virtually all the polls I've seen show that the majority of Americans will not vote for him in the next election.

Even if the economy stays this hot in 2020,Trump is the clear underdog. Anyone else would be a shop-in to be re-elected.

[Oneironaut]

83. That doesn't seem to be true.

His approval numbers have been consistent, if not rising lately. The polls are also garbage. They overwhelmingly said Hillary would win in 2016, and they were all wrong.

We made the same mistake in 2016. "His poll numbers are awful. He'll never win. The majority hates him and won't vote for him." You'll be shocked by how close the election is going to be. Trump has a contingent of stealth independents / undecideds who will vote for him over any Democrat. They are simple / uninformed voters who see that the economy is good, and will react purely based on that.

We need 2018-level enthusiasm to beat him. Assuming Trump will lose or is an underdog is a major mistake. We made the same mistake in 2016. Most of the things we care about for Trump the general public couldn't care less about.

[John Fante]

85. Yeah Trump's numbers have been consistent alright. Consistently shit.

That fact that they show little fluctuation tells me that his numbers are baked in and he has little room for improvement. That's a bad sign for Trump.

BTW Hillary was almost as unpopular as Trump and she had the email investigation casting a dark cloud over her candidacy. It ultimately doomed her thanks to the Comey letter. That won't happen in 2020, and it's highly unlikely that Biden will hit Hillary's levels of unpopularity regardless.

Trump has hit this 43% ceiling before (several times actually) so I wouldn't get too worked up about his "rising" numbers. The economy was just as strong this past November when 60.7 million Americans rebuked Trump in the mid-terms. It won't save him.

[treestar]

73. Then why 2018?

What is so urgent with the election 18 months away? 46% is less than half.

[Oneironaut]

84. I would not start with the assumption that we will match the enthusiasm of 2018.

It'll take lots of effort to repeat that level of enthusiasm. I think we can do it, but it won't just happen. Also, we're not talking about a perfect world where everyone votes, voter suppression doesn't exist, voters are rational, etc.

[treestar]

88. 2018 was a midterm. It is harder to get enthusiasm for those.

[Oneironaut]

89. True, but that does not speak to the level of enthusiasm we'll have in 2020.

I would not expect 2018 to be an indicator of things like enthusiasm, voter attendance, etc. We need to bring the same level of energy as we did in 2018. It will have been 2 years since the midterms - enough time for some of that enthusiasm to fade into complacency.

[Drunken Irishman]

64. It's the economy, stupid...

My feeling for the last year has been that Trump can be reelected due to the economy and I still believe it.

Americans are likely going to dismiss a lot if their personal success is decent. At work Friday, I started talking to a coworker who is pretty apolitical. I'm pretty sure she didn't vote in 2016 and probably hasn't voted ever in a presidential election. But she flat-out said that her 401K has never done as well as it has as it's done under Trump. I told her the surge started under Obama and that we're seeing the residuals of his policies. She said maybe and that was that. I don't think she'll vote in 2020 but there are a lot of Americans like her who vote.

[marlakay]

71. It's how they ask too

I belong to yougov for polling have done surveys for over ten years with them. I just took a political one a few days ago.

A lot of the questions and choices they gave didn’t fit. Like are you happy with the economy? And no choice for economy might look ok but gas and food and everything else up in price.

The questions about Trump they also ask in a manipulative way. Like how do you feel about Trump and economy? It’s like they were purposely written to trick you to be positive about him.

I read very carefully and answered so that it would go against Trump. I doubt many people not involved like we are would think to do so.

[Cicada]

75. The poll does not say 46%. It says 46% plus or minus 3.27%.

Polls are samples. Assume a universe of 100 million balls, exactly half red, half blue. Pick randomly 900 balls. Whatever number you get might have by sheer chance too many balls of either color. By accident you might have drawn only red balls, or only blue. Pollsters calculate the odds of the sample of 900 deviating from the true distribution. In this poll they estimate the sample fairly often deviates from reality by 3.27%. The pollsters report approval is likely 3.27% from 46%. That is why it is much more accurate to average polls. At 538 the average of many polls show Trumps approval amazingly constant, around 42%. No recent changes.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

76. Ironically the WSJ-NBC poll is the same poll that showed Trump was at 46% approval

Ironically the WSJ-NBC poll:


https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/democrats-hold-7-point-edge-final-national-nbc-wsj-poll-n931001

is the same poll that showed Trump was at 46% approval when his party was on its way to losing:

-40 House seats
-7 governors
-6 state legislatures
- 23 out of 35 senate eaces
-367 state legislative seats

That being said his defeat in 2020 is not assured:


https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287105356

[Mike Nelson]

77. Since Hillary won the 2016 vote...

… but lost the election, I think many pollsters changed their sample... they can increase the number of likely Trump supporters in their polling population. Pollsters hate being wrong... they would rather poll toward the Electoral College and gerrymandered districts.

[earthside]

80. How many Republicans?

The thing one needs to know to figure out this poll is how many Republicans were included in the survey.

My belief is that a lot of these mainstream media polls are tending to oversample Republican voters. If they are basing the poll on the notion that say 40% of Americans identify as Republicans, you are going to get a different 'approval' number than if only 35% are calling themselves Republicans.

[Funtatlaguy]

82. That is usually in the cross tabs

Scroll down.

[Jspur]

86. He always flunctuates between 35

and 45. I think the Democrats have a 50-50 chance of beating him in 2020. Those odds could even increase in the next year or so but at worst it's 50-50 and at best it could go to 60-40.

[uponit7771]

87. Even with Russian help? I don't see 2020 being less free and fair than 2016