Trump at 46% approval. They say he can win with 45% (approval rating) ! If something happens

[Laura PourMeADrink]

Last edited Tue May 7, 2019, 07:57 AM - Edit history (1)

in the near future - Great. But, no way would Barr say Mueller could testify if he knew it was very very bad for Trump.

Time to move on and focus on protecting 2020 vote.

And trust me, I would be the BIGGEST proponent for "hoping on". if I hadn't thought about this day and night for months.

Unless we move to impeach ASAP (like two weeks ago) - time to work on protecting the 2020 vote.

[tymorial]

1. Trump could win at 45% or less if a left wing candidate achieved sufficient popularity

Just saying

[ProudLib72]

3. I call BS

Just saying...

[tymorial]

46. Call BS all you want. Clinton won with 43%.

I'm not saying its going to happen. I said it could happen and it has.

[demosincebirth]

62. Three where running in that year

[backscatter712]

41. Let me fix that...

 Trump could win at 45% or less if a conservadem milquetoast achieved sufficient popularity

[emmaverybo]

57. What conservadem milkeetoast you have in mind?

I think progressives have great energy and ideas, but underestimate how many Americans are out of the loop on political discourse, the detailed arguments we hold among ourselves. A good percentage follow headlines or snips and snaps on the news, a few talking points repeated by either side, the broad brushstrokes.
The fear factor motivates like no other.
Wait until a big idea, big policy change progressive gets close to Trump for the fear-mongering to set in.
It has already started.

Take away your employee provided plan, which you like. That is huge. Run up huge deficit on untested socialist inspired programs.

And progressives tend to see the Dem base as much more socially and policy-liberal than it is.

I imagine your conservadem is Biden. Take a look at the polling. Remember how close Hilary came, and that Obama was center left.

[Tiggeroshii]

2. He can win with 20%

Convincing middle America to vote for us is the most important thing.

[TwilightZone]

15. No, he can't win with 20%.

He needs roughly what he had last time and needs to keep the three swing states. He's not going to do that with 20%.

[Tiggeroshii]

20. Yes he can technically (link provided)

He only needs a bare majority of 270 electoral college states that mostly exist in rural America. 23%* is the popular vote needed for that bare majority of 270 electoral college votes.

https://www.npr.org/2016/11/02/500112248/how-to-win-the-presidency-with-27-percent-of-the-popular-vote

[Polybius]

36. That's pure fantasy

It's like saying you can technically win the Powerball three times in a row. That ridiculous article has him winning California and NY.

[Tiggeroshii]

43. That's true.

The specific special scenario is incredibly far fetched given current political reality.

[dsc]

42. well one could win with just 10 votes as well

only one person voting in each of the ten most popular states, but that isn't going to happen either.

[TwilightZone]

72. I like that one.

Nicely done.

[TwilightZone]

67. Context is important.

In context, there is zero chance of that happening.

[uponit7771]

22. With Russia's help in 2020 he can win with 10%, 2020 wont be more Free / Fair than 2016

[Joe941]

27. I'm hoping we will have China on our side in 2020...

China is pissed at tRump and his tariffs. I bet China can counter Russia with help for our side...

[Hoyt]

4. It's tough accepting what has been going on. I HOPE Mueller steps up, but not

betting on it.

The election— including House, Senate, local — is where it’s at. We can dump trump and his enablers, even if it takes another 18 months.

[TheFarseer]

5. Plenty of people

don't really like Trump but will vote for him over a Democrat. My family is loaded with such people. This is why I'm not sure picking the 'safest' candidate is the best strategy - but that is for a different thread.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

9. Ha. What Maher said...run Anthony Weiner

[vercetti2021]

6. He isn't

46%? I call the biggest bunch of horse crap

[Laura PourMeADrink]

11. Chuck Todd today on MTP. I called bullshit too..but

Looked it up. Yes 46 on latest NBC poll. Same for Harris.

He was at 39 the day after Mueller redacted report released

[vercetti2021]

18. There is no way in hell

How can you go up? Nothing good is going for him

[Laura PourMeADrink]

32. He is just borrowing money to make everything

look better than it is. He can probably do that until rates go up so no one will lend to us. But he doesn't care because it probably won't happen while he's around.

[at140]

61. Lending will halt when debt becomes

So big, the interest payments become the biggest item on spending budget. At that point the country is bankrupt by any standard of measurement.

Right now the interest on debt is approaching $400 Billion per year.

[NewJeffCT]

33. Trump and the media keep beating the drums for the economy

and how great it's going.

And, the sad part is that many Democrats don't fight back on this other than to bring up rising income inequality, if that. It's a tremendously important issue, but it's also one that is difficult for the average person to easily understand in a sound bite world. Too often the Democratic talking head will say in response to the Trumpster saying the economy is great by going, "Yes, but..."

1) We're stealing trillions from our children and grandchildren to artificially stimulate the economy at the cost of all time highs in the debt and the deficit to pay for the Trump/Ryan tax cut scam for millionaires, billionaires and huge corporations.
2) The trade deficit has gone up under Trump.
3) Mexico still hasn't paid for the wall
4) The number of uninsured has gone up under Trump after dropping nicely under Obama due to the ACA
5) The US international reputation is at an all time low as we embrace dictators and spurn long time allies.
6) Yes, the stock market went up bigly in 2017, but it went up more in other western nations the same year.
7) The trade war is bankrupting farmers

[Laura PourMeADrink]

38. All perfect points. If you watch the trump documentary

on Netflix, you can see him evolve into a celebrity because he is the greatest self promoter ever. He is doing this with our country too. It's all smoke and mirrors and he knows how to do it. And, he knows that people only see surface and like you said, won't get the underlying issues.

Wish we had a nominee now. We are 10 months away from any leadership and unified message. That's a long time for trump to fill the void.

[ProfessorGAC]

50. Wait Until Gas Prices Start Pinching

Use of gas is inelastic for 99% of people
More $ for gas means less $ for other things
As far as the "C" in the GDP equation it is transparent but less $ on other goods and services impacts real GDP and people's wallets
This buffoon already tried yelling at the Saudis and was ignored
But, he's not going to yell at the price setters on the refined product side
As much as I hate the impact high gas prices has on the least comfortable among us, this kind of thing might shut up the "well, everything is sort of OK" types

[standingtall]

7. This poll is probably an outlier and Barr probably cannot stop Mueller from testifying

the next NBC poll will probably have Trump back in the low 40's and maybe even the high 30's.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

12. Harris too. Is that who NBC allied with. Saw Harris poll

At 46 too

[standingtall]

21. The Harvard caps Harris poll

is an online poll it is not trust worthy.

[uponit7771]

23. +1, thx for this ... I with to HELL ... 538 and RCP would stop front paging those bullshit ass'd ...

.. polls.

They're not correcting their weight enough

[former9thward]

47. The Hill and Gallup also have him at 46%.

So that is four recent polls. Are they all "outliers"? Are they all "not to be trusted"? Which poll is to be faithfully trusted? Are only polls which have results you like to be trusted?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

[standingtall]

48. The Hill poll is the same as the Harris poll that's why it is called Hill/HarrisX poll

Every Harris poll is rated rated C+ on 538 which is one of the lowest ratings given by Nate Silver you have to scroll down an awful long way before you find a grade worse than that.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo


See who else the HarrisX poll is associated with (This ScottRasmussen.com/HarrisX poll of 3,004 registered voters was conducted April 30-May 3, 2019.)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vR56lM3vrKGwlfUtpVAj5WGtVs0krOipo-mIwXXQCOncAKiICPBTinyhpvDTKC-gThvcfbs3lkieEga/pubhtml/sheet?headers=false&gid=0

Every Harris poll is trash

[former9thward]

60. So four polls are trash.

Any correct?

[standingtall]

63. I said the NBC poll was an outlier as compared to other NBC polls

not that it was trash. However all Harris polls are trash. Same outfit with four different polls, but the quality of them never improves and the Gallup monthly tracking poll isn't much better nor is it really even that recent.

[former9thward]

64. Funny that when people like the results,

the same polls are never "outliers" but a "trend" and they are "respected" not "trash".

[standingtall]

65. Get back to me when the next 2 or 3 NBC polls have Trump with a 46 percent approval rating

until then it is an outlier. Even solid polling can have a bad sample.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

74. Gotta claim Gallup outlier too now. So Harris, NBC, Gallup all at 46

[emmaverybo]

58. And the leaking ain't over. nt

[UniteFightBack]

8. Big Belly Barr kinda had to say oh yeah sure no problem to let Bob testify. It would of looked very

bad otherwise.

[Baconator]

29. He's been so sensitive to appearing biased so far right?

[Ligyron]

34. If Barr actually meant that, it would mean bad news for us.

The fact that he even said he doesn't care if Mueller testifies scares me 'cause it implies Mueller's testimony will pretty much clear Trump.

The fact that Trump now states he doesn't want Mueller before the House gives me some hope.

[calguy]

10. Relax folks

The election is a long way off. A lot of shit will be going down between now and then. All polls taken right now are pretty much meaningless. Let it play out, since we can't do anything about right now. Life is too short to let your blood pressure go through the roof at this juncture.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

14. I hear ya. So we will just hope something happens?

Something comes out that's worse than what's already out there? Something Mueller did not find?

Impeach asap...our only hope of affecting approvals? Makes a major statement and resets public to truth. And people might listen??

[John Fante]

13. Trump winning with 46% was the mother of all flukes.

The only way he wins with 45% of the vote is if the Democratic candidate gets under 48%. That is unlikely to happen.

Keep in mind that McCain captured just under 46% of the vote in 2008...and didn't come close to winning. Romney captured 47% (more than Trump)... and didn't come close to winning.

Trump isn't even close to a 46% poll average anyway - this is just one poll. Chill.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

16. You are right...he just hit 46 in the last couple days

[John Fante]

19. In one poll. A poll that's been friendler to him than most. His average at 538 is currently 42.7%

[uponit7771]

24. 2020 will be more free and fair than 2016? tia

[John Fante]

75. Time to concede to election then. JFC.

[uponit7771]

77. Or not whistle past the graveyard and impeach for the sake of exposure? tia

[Polybius]

37. 46% approval is completely different than winning 46% of the vote

If he's at 46%, that means he wins at least 48% of the vote. There's always that 2% that can't stand him but votes for him anyway, for whatever reason (rich reasons, abortion, etc.).

I don't think he's at 46% though.

[Thekaspervote]

17. Fivethirtyeight still has him where he's been all along. Low 40s

[uponit7771]

25. THIS !!!!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

28. Right but that's pulled down due to lower approvals

from before now

[Doodley]

26. We all believe Trump is terrible. Many, like me think he is

destroying America. Yet his approval is exactly where it was when he was inaugurated -- 43.8% RCP average then, compared to 44% now.

This shows the utter failure of Democratic lawmakers to convince voters of anything. How is anything going to change by next year?

It didn't take Republicans long to destroy the approval of Hillary Clinton that was in the 60s when she was Secretary of State. They redefined (unfairly) her for many voters, yet we can't convince a single voter that Trump is bad for them and for America.

Unless something changes, we are looking at Trump until 2024, and it is going to be a nightmare.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

30. Yes. No matter how anyone tries to sugarcoat or

say a poll is not accurate, it is never good that no matter what crazy thing someone does, there's no effect.

I have looked for a poll that shows what trump supporters don't like about him. This is what we should be harping on. I want to say they hated the way he treated (treats) children & families at border was one of the things. Harp on that plus him saying he had his own great plan for healthcare and how he now is dismantling ACA.

[LovingA2andMI]

31. How Many Does These Type of Threads Exists....

By the Same OP. It's Tiresome and is there a purpose repeatedly posting what Polls say in Drump's so-called approval rating when EACH THREAD -- OR ESPECIALLY THE LAST ONE - made a pretty good point on how Sampling Errors of 414 respondents should NOT be repeatedly endlessly without properly noting the Sampling Error?

#BasicStatistics101Class

[Laura PourMeADrink]

68. Equally tiresome hearing people trash polls they don't agree with.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

70. Gallup monthly poll just out 46%

https://news.gallup.com/poll/203207/trump-job-approval-weekly.aspx

[mr_liberal]

35. Because of the economy. If the economy stays strong he could win. nt

[ooky]

44. All Dem voters need to stop buying everything.

Cars, houses, etc.

.....Oh wait, even if the economy goes into recession he will lie about it and say that we are all living in economic Utopia, broadcast and repeated bold and loud on CNN and MSNBC. And the 46% watching NBC will go along with it because it fits the narrative they desire.

Why not, they go along with all the rest of his lies.

Never mind.

[John Fante]

76. IBD/TPP has him at 43%. Yougov 41%.

New polls.

[Buckeyeblue]

39. I don't care about the polls right now

We need a strong candidate to emerge from the primary process who can unite first the Democrats and then the country. And then we have to win PA, MI and WI.

[DeminPennswoods]

40. "Approval" adds up strongly and somewhat approve

of answers. The number to look at is strongly approve vs strongly disapprove. I haven't looked at this poll, but strongly disapprove has been twice as much as strongly approve for awhile now.

[LibFarmer]

45. It is the economy

many people will put up with an asshole if their 401-Ks are rising and if they are employed.

When the full effect of the tax cuts and tariffs hit next year, the economy will tank just in time for the election.

[lagomorph777]

49. I don't do the Tweeter thing. Which poll is making that claim?

It seems like an outlier compared to other recent polls showing Trump in decline.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

53. It's not one poll. It's two of the most recent polls

First by NBC/WSJ. 46%

Second by Harris 46%

You've also got Rassmussen which has him at 50%. But that is discounted since they are republicans

Here's the link. He did slip after Mueller report but rising again
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

[standingtall]

55. The Harris pollsters are republicans too

The HarrisX,Harris interactive,Hill/HarrisX and Harris Harvard caps poll are all the same.

Look at the top and you will this poll was conducted by ScottRasmussen.com

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vR56lM3vrKGwlfUtpVAj5WGtVs0krOipo-mIwXXQCOncAKiICPBTinyhpvDTKC-gThvcfbs3lkieEga/pubhtml/sheet?headers=false&gid=0

[Laura PourMeADrink]

73. Since then, Gallup came out with 46. It used to be their daily, then their weekly

now it's their monthly. I have been tracking this forever. Trying to see where there was a spike down and what happened around that point - but didn't see anything specific. Of course, he does crazy shit all day. 46% is the highest approval rating he has ever gotten, even when he started.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/203207/trump-job-approval-weekly.aspx

[emmaverybo]

51. This jump suspicious. See later replies on this thread that counter

It’s the poll. But MSM is going with this inflation.

[gldstwmn]

52. 45% approval isn't 45% of the vote.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

54. That's true. It's his favorability. I read that he can

Win a state with a 45% favorability.

What's important are the individual swing state approval #s. It's just one indicator. You also can look at matchups per state.

[Cousin Dupree]

56. He can win with less than 20 % approval. Russia can make it happen.

[LyndaG]

59. Hmmmm

Clinton won with 43 percent in '92 because Perot was a viable third party candidate. It'd be terrible if something like that happened in '20 and DT was reelected. We must work hard and give our candidate 100 percent support and don't throw away important votes.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

69. No re trump not 45% of vote, 45%approval rating...just

An indicator

[Amishman]

66. We need the economy to tank

If somehow the bubble doesn't pop in the next 18 months it's going to be far closer than it should be

[MosheFeingold]

71. What an awful thing to wish

Even if true.