Ok..so how many sampling in the ABC/WP poll

[INdemo]

doesn't really tell us ..Was there 500,600,a thousand,,
And where was this poll taken geographically?
With so many doubts would someone please explain to me how Rmoney is leading 47%-46% and President Obama leads with the women voters,Latinos,and African American..Key battle ground states are leading Obama..
So as the math was on MJ..Rmoney needs to win Ohio,Fla Va,and NC and pick up another state like Iowa,NH,or Nev.
So where did those samplings come from,all red states? With so many states leaning Obama how is it possible for Rmoney to be in the lead? Unless the Corporate media is propping Rmoney up now since its possible he wont get a bump from convention..Gues I'm all questions this morning..

[On the Road]

1. Some of It May be Timing

Since Republican politics has dominated the news in recent weeks, Romney might legitimately be ahead -- in fact, it is very likely after the convention bounce.

It is just as likely that Obama will retake the lead after the Democratic convention.

[CabCurious]

3. Romney has yet to break 46%. If he doesn't significantly bump up by end of the week...

We're going to see Republicans and conservative pundits breaking ranks at even stronger levels than in 2008. What Palin represented to moderates and serious people has been compounded tenfold by the far-right politics and platform of this GOP.

Which is why the GOP continue to focus on tearing Obama down, because they cannot sell their own candidate or platform. I suspect an increasing number of conservative insiders believe that the GOP can only reasonably focus on holding ground in Congress, not taking the White House.

There's another issue.

I'm convinced that 100% of those saying they will vote Obama will do so.

I'm NOT convinced that 100% of those saying they will vote Romney will do so. The GOP must know that they are seriously as risk from conservatives neither turning out nor following the ticket. This may be the real reason for the far-right platform... to keep Congress.

[CabCurious]

2. National polls are meaningless right now... but there are two trends.

The important thing we can take away from the national polling is that there are two trends.

1. Obama continues to poll 46-49%.
2. Romney has gained a few points but remains under 46%.

We can pull our hair out about the methodology of various statistical sampling models, but these can only tell us about the shifts in national "mood" and among undecideds.

What we should be watching more carefully are the state polls, especially in moderate and swing states.

[BumRushDaShow]

4. They seem to distinguish "Registered Voters" from "Likely Voters"

and it seems President Obama is ahead with the former but they want to make the latter a horserace - i.e., they don't consider the constituencies that he is ahead in as "likely voters" based on that 2010 nightmare of an apathetic election.

[uponit7771]

5. Read a post this morning that ABC's numbers have been off 7 of 14 and trends rMoney ahead

...even when the others have him behind

[WI_DEM]

6. Why do people freak out about this poll when so many other polls have Obama ahead?

[Jennicut]

7. I have no idea. It is a close race but the swing state and electoral college matter the most.

And the NBC/Wall St. Journal poll has Obama up by four, CNN has Obama up by 2 with RV's, the Gallup tracking poll has them tied (Obama went up in that poll), and Rasmussen has Obama ahead by 3 in the tracking poll and 4 in the swing state poll (not that Rasmussen doesn't manipulate polls). Really, looking at all of the polls combined Obama has about a 2% advantage. This is better then in 2008 when McCain picked Palin and went up a few points after the convention. Romney got no bounce from Ryan aside from maybe a 2 point bounce in Wisconsin.