Trump's 'surge' in the polls seems to have collapsed...

[Drunken Irishman]

Of course, at no point in this stretch was he above 50% - but his polls were trending upward again ... until they abruptly stalled and started heading back down.



To put this into perspective, at this point in 2011, Obama had an approval of nearly 52% and a disapproval of 42%.

Trump is still dangerous, and no one should take him lightly, but he's so under-performing where an incumbent would be at this point that I am just not sure why the betting markets have him the favorite to win reelection.

[Big Blue Marble]

1. Josh Marshall wrote a good analysis of why and how Trump can win despite his unfavorable polls.

This piece goes along way to explain the betting markets.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/perfect-storm-part-ii

His point is we better be ready for what we are facing.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

3. Read he can win with 45% approval as people come out from under rocks. What

really matters is his approval in the key states. those just seem to come out sporadically. Would like to see MI WI PA TX NC NV AZ FL all below 40.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. No doubt we can't be complacent...

But I think the biggest takeaway from this is that it's likely Trump will need a big event to win. And that's if the economy doesn't retract. If it does, I think his chances are small.

[Big Blue Marble]

5. I agree

The economy is his main support. Without a good economy, he most likely will lose.
Then the question will be, will we even have an election?

[Nictuku]

2. The Russian Guarantee (tm)

[msongs]

6. repubs spent last 10 yrs successfully implementing election fixing in

too many areas