Would you support impeachment even if it locked in a second term for Trump?

[Drunken Irishman]

I am not suggesting I believe going through with impeachment would actually be good for Trump, but ultimately, the end-game of such action is unclear to every single person here on DU.

On its face, if Trump committed obstruction, or any other significant crime, he should impeached because, really, that's literally living up to the constitutional duties of each member of the House.

But we know almost certainly the Senate will not convict Trump and remove him from office. We also know that most polls aren't overwhelmingly in support of impeachment. The last I could find showed 45 for it and 42 against it. The prevailing thought is that continued investigation into Trump would certainly yield more favorable figures as Americans become more aware of the charges.

This, however, is just as big of a gamble.

Let's start with the obvious: we've been teasing the Mueller Report now for two years. In that two-year span, despite indictments and arrests and charges, Trump's approval has marginally budged. It's ebbed and flowed, to be sure, and there have been moments where he's dipped well into the 30s (early in 2017, however), but on the whole, Trump's approval has remained remarkably steady for someone who, for a bulk of his presidency so far, was, at least in part, under investigation.

Currently, Trump's average approval according to RCP is 43.3%. His disapproval is 53.5%.

Here's his polling on this day each month over the past year (approval/disapproval):

4/19: 43.1-52.8
3/19: 42.5-53.4
2/19: 44.1-52.6
1/19: 41.1-55.6
12/18: 42.5-51.8
11/18: 43.8-52.4
10/18: 44.2-51.9
9/18: 42.4-53.4
8/18: 43.6-52.4
7/18: 43.4-52.6
6/18: 43.7-52.1
5/18: 43.4-52.9

Trump's disapproval is .6% lower today than it was a year ago. His approval is .1% worse today than it was a year ago.

That's remarkably steady numbers.

Trump struggles to push above 45%. He did, however, see his biggest approval bounce in the wake of the Mueller Report but it was fleeting.

What these numbers show me is that despite Trump being under investigation, and the media storm that followed that investigation, his numbers remained relatively consistent. He didn't see that big of change in margin in his approval/disapproval. For the most part, it's sat at between -10 to -14. A four-point floor is not considered significant. To put that into perspective, over the same span (5/10 to 5/11), Obama's approval/disapproval margins went from a low of -6.7 to a high of +10.1. That's a swing of, what, 16 points? That's significant.

So, what does impeachment change? Does it move his numbers below 40%, which he's been generally above for the last year (Trump has not dipped in his average below 40% in the last year, coming closest 2/5/19 when he was at 40.7)? If it doesn't, is there the possibility of blowback - people turning out of the impeachment hearings and just plain getting tired of the constant investigations?

If Trump stonewalls and ties things up in the courts, how much of an impact will that have on the attention span of the country? We saw how the long, drawn out Mueller Report did relatively little harm to Trump's support overall - could the same happen with impeachment?

Is it worth the risk knowing, at the end of the day, the Senate will likely not vote to convict? And then what happens if, say, a year from now, or in early 2020, they find him not guilty in the senate? Does that help Trump? Embolden him?

What if we do all this, get no conviction and he wins reelection anyway?

I don't know if any of this will happen but impeachment success is not a slam dunk. I believe impeachment should move forward but we need to be cautious of the situation and realize the end game changes dramatically if impeachment doesn't weaken Trump.

[redstatebluegirl]

1. NOOOOOOOOO!

[Trumpocalypse]

2. The goal should be to get Trump out of office

however possible.

[BruceWane]

3. Not really an option

Impeachment is pretty much already baked in the 2020 election cake.

If democrats are not officially in the process, republicans run using "vote for us to stop the witch hunt", etc.

If democrats are in the process, republicans run using "see what the evil democrats have done! They must be voted out!".

Best thing the democrats can do is to do their job carefully and properly. Investigate, build the case, show and explain the evidence,
make it as public as possible in order to counter-act all the spin that Barr and the rest of them have used to deceive.

[Arkansas Granny]

4. As badly as I would like to see Trump impeached, my fear is

that if it fails, he would be unstoppable. He would see a total victory and be emboldened to grab even more power. His base would be revitalized, as well.

Unless he does something so atrocious that elected Republicans turn against him, voting him out would be the better solution.

[watoos]

5. Is it wise to base impeachment on polling numbers?

Do you trust the accuracy of polling numbers?

Would you support not holding impeachment hearings if it locked in a 2nd term for Trump?

[sinkingfeeling]

6. Yes, because impeachment is the Constitutional responsibility of the Congress and

once the public learns of the crimes and corruption , he will not be re-elected.

[Runningdawg]

14. The Cult elected him BECAUSE of his crimes and corruption.

They see him as a hero. They want to be able to fuck over their enemies and get away with it too and with Trump in office, t hat just might be possible for some.

[abqtommy]

7. The reTHUGS rely on corrupt practices

to win elections. We have to use ALL the resources we can to fight this and IMPEACHMENT is
a powerful part of our resources. I can't imagine that entering IMPEACHMENT proceedings would alter the reTHUG game plan in any way so they'll try to screw us whether or not we bring impeachment
proceedings. I say IMPEACH, IMPEACH, IMPEACH THE SUNNY BEACH!

[Paladin]

8. Oh, by all means: Let's continue to be a bunch of Gutless Wonder Democrats.

After all, look how well we've done against Trump and his idiot base, as we adhere to a set of good conduct rules that the Repubs walked away from, decades ago. Go for impeachment, immediately. If it doesn't work, then we'll just continue things in the streets. Whatever it takes---or is saving what's left of this country just not worth our time and effort anymore?

[cynatnite]

9. Only if the Dems win the Senate...

Then impeachment's back on the menu!

[GeorgeGist]

10. I'm not in favor of playing politics with the Constitution.

[PufPuf23]

11. No way to know, Senate conviction or not, that Trump would be re-elected in 2020.

Impeachment hearings and/or impeachment and/or Senate conviction will harm Trump

To harm Trump weakens or destroys any 2020 Trump effects.

To not impeach harms the Democratic party in the moment and through 2020 election at minimum. Voters will be lost without impeachment.

The impeachment process harms incumbent GOP pols and the GOP party.

Too much weight is being given to the Mueller investigation and report that muddies the issues and crimes of Trump.

Doing nothing but spinning wheels and wasting time while Trump endures and causes more lasting damage harms the nation and thew Democratic party.

The idea that impeachment will not damage Trump is not logical.

Worry more that there be an event (hot war for example) that allows Trump more leeway and results in stronger backing.

[coti]

12. No, but impeachment will decrease the likelihood of his re-election, not increase it nt

[ehrnst]

15. You stated that like it's a fact. Any research?

Like the statistics presented in the OP?

[Autumn]

13. A president who does not hold up his oath to the people of this nation and holds allegiance to

an enemy nation should be impeached. If that impeachment is not done or if it gives him a second term when his crimes are obvious our democracy is broken. So what is the difference? Either way, we have lost our country.