The Democrats' 100-year flood

[babylonsister]

https://www.axios.com/2020-presidential-election-turnout-predictions-democrats-143cced4-cda7-4665-9fc3-911387416119.html


Alexi McCammond
May 22, 2019
The Democrats' 100-year flood


The midterm elections may have been a sign of what's ahead for the 2020 presidential election: experts say the voter turnout could be the highest in a century.

The big picture: According to Michael McDonald, an elections expert at the University of Florida, turnout for the 2020 presidential election could be as high as 67% — the highest it's been since at least 1916. If that happens, President Trump will have a tougher fight for a second term.

He's driving turnout among those most unhappy with him (younger voters and people of color) even when he's not on the ballot.
And Trump voters aren't a growing demographic group. The share of whites with less than a 4-year degree — Trump's constituency — dropped by 3% from 2014 to 2018.

Between the lines: McDonald is basing his prediction of "a hundred-year storm" on the 2018 midterms, which had the highest off-year election turnout in more than a century (50%). He says that momentum will only get stronger.

Prior to 2018, turnout rates for midterms since 1974 had been languishing around 40% to 41%.

"It doesn't seem to be the candidates who were running in 2018; there wasn't hyper competition driving turnout; some states made it easier to vote, but that can't explain it because the increase was happening in every state," McDonald said. "So the only explanation is Donald Trump because he’s the only major factor that’s changed in our politics since 2014."

snip//

The bottom line: For all of his struggles in the polls, Trump is the incumbent and he has a booming economy. But a historic election turnout could wipe out those advantages — and the early signs suggest that's exactly what we're about to get.

[mcar]

1. When we vote, we win

[Hugin]

2. They just keep pushing the booming economy hogwash.

The so-called booming economy is a leftover talking point from the failed Republican tax overhaul.

But... They need a horse race.

[onecaliberal]

4. It goes to show how out of touch they are regarding the economy.

It’s not booming for most people. By dumpco blatantly doing the things he’s doing in public, not even trying to hide how he’s screwing the poor, taking healthcare, creating inflation, higher gas prices, higher taxes, it’s difficult to blame others even if he thinks it’s working. We all see the naked emperor.

[Hugin]

10. +1

[Eyeball_Kid]

8. The "booming economy" is a euphemism for emerging feudalism.

Most millennials are barely able to pay their loans and interest, and have nothing left over as disposable income. As this trend continues, the economy will become even more sluggish, because the US economy is highly dependent on consumer activity that's fueled by disposable income. Rentals prices now match or exceed mortgage payments. Two full time jobs are often just enough to tread water. As billionaires, both foreign and domestic, buy up more rental properties, this trend will continue. We'll have hell to pay.

[Hugin]

11. Good analysis.

Sad, but, true.

[lunatica]

12. Booming for the 1%. That's how it's measured nowadays.

[FakeNoose]

3. It's only booming for the one-per-centers

We're not seeing any of it.

Most of us are either holding steady, or else we're poorer now than we were 3 years ago.

[CrispyQ]

6. The way groceries go up, we're poorer than we were three weeks ago!

You have the perfect avatar for your screen name!

[Eyeball_Kid]

9. We already have predictions that food prices will skyrocket in summer and fall because...

the climate is rapidly changing, especially in the farm belt. Crops are NOT being planted because of flooding. Vast areas are only planting 10-40% of the normal crop because farmland is too wet. Climate experts are saying that this is the result of a severe weakening of the jet stream due to the warming of the ice caps at the poles. This is serious stuff that is having a major effect on national and global food supplies. Yet those in control of regulating fossil fuel contaminants and atmospheric pollutants are encouraging more of the same.

[CrispyQ]

5. I can't believe that I'm the only one not feeling this booming economy the pundits are all pushing.

I don't care how the DJIA is doing - it's 30 fucking stocks.

[marlakay]

7. Retirees don't feel it

Same money higher prices and with his tariff war even worse. Gas has gone back up.