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Fri May 24, 2019, 11:45 PM

The Democrats will win if they channel their anger into voting because the Dem base is bigger.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/24/opinion/trump-2020-election.html

For the midterms, I devised a new forecasting model informed partly by this new paradigm of voter behavior. It was as accurate as the best in the forecasting business, and my predictions were made months ahead of the others. That’s important, because it is already telling us what we can expect from the 2020 election.

SNIP

By identifying Republican-held districts with both a reasonably competitive partisan electorate and a large number of college-educated voters who could form a Democratic turnout swell, I predicted — in July 2018 — that negative partisanship would allow Democrats to pick up 42 House seats and sweep “Reagan country” in Orange County, Calif. At first, my model was an outlier, but by Election Day, the FiveThirtyEight “classic” forecast, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report all agreed with my forecast.

SNIP

In short, the 2020 presidential election is shaping up as a battle of the bases, and the Democrats’ base is simply bigger. When their demographic advantage combines with an enthusiasm advantage and heightened party loyalty fueled by negative partisanship, they hold a significant structural advantage. Turnout in 2018 was about 12 points higher than 2014 turnout and higher than any midterm in decades. Midterm turnout can sometimes trail presidential-election-year turnout by 20 points. It was just 10 points in 2018, when it hit nearly 50 percent, versus 2016. It is not infeasible that turnout in 2020 will exceed 65 percent. Presidential-cycle electorates are better for Democrats than midterm electorates are, and the third-party share in 2018 was also at its lowest levels in decades. In congressional midterms, the average third-party balloting rate in recent elections is about 3.5 percent; in 2018, it was just half that.

We’ll spend the next 21 months captivated by an election whose outcome may already be determined because of polarization and negative partisanship. Democrats have a clear path to recapturing the White House. It is hard to imagine any other president facing these conditions running for re-election. But needless to say, Mr. Trump isn’t just any other president.

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Reply The Democrats will win if they channel their anger into voting because the Dem base is bigger. (Original post)
pnwmom May 2019 OP
still_one May 2019 #1
saidsimplesimon May 2019 #2
MasonDreams May 2019 #3
crazytown May 2019 #4

Response to pnwmom (Original post)

Fri May 24, 2019, 11:56 PM

1. Yes

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Response to pnwmom (Original post)

Sat May 25, 2019, 12:11 AM

2. Yes, registered Democrats

do outnumber registered Republicans in many localities. We should win every race where we hold the majority. It seems, the other side is winning by suppressing the Democratic vote. Ergo

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Response to pnwmom (Original post)

Sat May 25, 2019, 02:26 AM

3. Big tent, Bigger tent., Biggest tent.

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Response to pnwmom (Original post)

Sat May 25, 2019, 02:44 AM

4. Sorry, that's not on -

The winning formula this time round is unity, consensus and healing.

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