My impeachment prediction

[vlyons]

Everything will go forward as it is now with the House calling and subpoenaing documents and testimony, Trump resisting, and contempt charges here and there. But once the House finally gets Trump's tax and financial records, it will be all too obvious that he filed fraudulent taxes, loan applications, and insurance claims. He will not be able to truthfully tell the lawful source of his income. It will be obvious that he has laundered money for years, wire fraud, and tax cheats. Then the House will finally vote a bill of impeachment. He will be shown to be so dirty and corrupt, and his family with him, that he will resign claiming that it's all lies and the country doesn't deserve him.

[StarfishSaver]

4. If Mnuchin doctored the tax returns, he will be exposed

Not only are there pretty simple ways to determine forensically if the returns were doctored, they have other sources for getting his returns, such as from his accountants. And they can also get his NY State tax returns, which contain much of the same information. If the info doesn't match up, he's screwed.

And it probably won't match up anyway since, as Cohen testified, he submitted false returns to various entities, depending on what he was trying to get from them

If doctoring the tax returns were an easy fix that would let him off the hook, they'd have done that a long time ago and released them.

[mgardener]

14. They can't change NYS tax returns.

Too much of a discrepancy and that in and of itself will look suspicious.
I think NYS will take trump down.

[murielm99]

2. I don't think he will resign.

I don't think the Senate will vote to remove him. Some repubbie Senators will pay a high price for that.

It is going to take a long time to get the stink of 45 off our government. It may not happen in my lifetime.

[MyOwnPeace]

35. You said:

"It is going to take a long time to get the stink of 45 off our government. It may not happen in my lifetime."

And isn't that a depressing thought - who EVER would have thought that we'd allow our country to fall into this mess?

We REALLY have to work hard for 2020 and GET OUT THE VOTE - we have SO much to fix!

[crazytown]

37. There will not be a Senate Trial

MConnell is not obliged to hold one.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100212129950

[marylandblue]

3. You are assuming there is a level below which the Republicans will not sink.

History shows there is no such level for the power-mad. If we do manage to turn back the tide of autocracy and corruption, it will not be because the corrupt autocrats saw his tax returns.

[vlyons]

9. I make no predictions about what the Senate GOPers will do

nothing honorable, I suspect.

[marylandblue]

23. If he is not going to be convicted in the Senate, why would he resign?

He's not going to admit defeat and resign. His ego won't let him.

[sop]

30. Trump will have to be carried out of the WH like Assange from the Ecuadorian Embassy

It will take more than four strong men to physically haul Trump's fat ass, kicking and screaming, from the WH bomb bunker, where he'll barricade himself with Stephen Miller, his only remaining aide.

[empedocles]

5. Hopefully there will be very extensive House hearings exposing all sorts of

wrongdoing.

Also be nice if traitorbarr would be investigated and cornered before long.

[Firestorm49]

6. One can only hope.

[cilla4progress]

7. Not as confident, sadly.

why would this take him down, when all his heinous vile acts so far exposed have not?

I do like the way you think, though!

[wasupaloopa]

8. We keep saying "when this happens then he will get his due" but "this" never happens.

Rachel asked Nadler when will it happen and he replied "when we get witnesses."

People will have to be fined and jailed to force them to testify and those folks will look like martyrs to the trump base.


Only the judges and police have jurisdiction over trump plus our votes.


We are so disposed to believe that what is right will prevail. Well maybe not this time.

[marylandblue]

24. +1 Throughout history, good has often lost to evil.

Hopefully good will prevail this time, but we have no more of a guarantee than past generations did.

[Mme. Defarge]

10. He will resign and be pardoned by Pence

for federal crimes, then steal away to a country with no extradition treaty with the U.S. to avoid his other legal difficulties.

[Honeycombe8]

11. He will never resign, and never admit to a crime. Never. It's not in his DNA.

If he's impeached, the Democrats and maybe Independents will be happy. The Republicans will still be angry, like they are not. And nothing will change, except that the impeachment will be on his record. (I don't see the majority of Republicans in the Senate changing their minds on anything, so will not vote for impeachment, which would be necessary to remove him.)

The only thing that would stop him is indictment, and the DOJ policy is that the President can't be indicted. Which is another reason not to resign; he's more apt to be indicted, as soon as he's not President. This is not settled law, so I guess it's possible they could try to indict him? That would go all the way to the (Republican) Supreme Court.

[DFW]

22. He doesn't have to admit to a crime. He has been setting this up for over a year now

He has been crowing that he has accomplished more in 2 years than Obama did in 8. He can just do a "my work is done here, mission accomplished," and resign "in triumph." His followers will equate this with Jesus ascending to heaven, just watch.

[marylandblue]

26. He could, but why would he if he is not forced out?

The only way he resigns is if Senate Republicans tell him to, like they told Nixon. But they have backed him in almost everything so far, knowing full well what a dangerous crook he is

[DFW]

28. Only one thing would convince the Senate Republicans to abandon him

If the polls show enough of them in real peril of losing so many seats as to be in a serious minority after 2020, they would expel him from office for littering if need be.

Also, if he loses the 2020 election, he can always resign before his term ends in January, and have "President" Pence pardon him for past and future crimes, as Ford did for Nixon. The precedent is already there.

[marylandblue]

33. I don't think Senate Republicans would abandon him even if they are losing badly in the polls.

First of all, most are in safe red seats, so it's only handful likely to be at risk in 2020. Second, if they are losing, they are still stuck because if they abandon Trump, the base will abandon them, making their loss even bigger.

If Trump loses the election, all bets are off. But he's unlikely to strike any deal that appears to be an admission of guilt like Nixon's. It simply beyond him to think he might actually have to go to jail, and he might be right. He may use all his tricks to delay prosecution until he dies.

[DFW]

38. A handful of six would do just fine

Negate the Manchin effect with 53 Democrats (including King and Sanders), and Schumer (not my first choice) becomes majority leader. McTurtle becomes "used-to-be" and the era of fast-tracking unqualified federal judges and Supreme Court Justices is over.

I no longer dare say that there is no way that Trump wins a second term, because the last election clearly demonstrated once again that winning the election does not guarantee a term in office.

[marylandblue]

39. We won't get six Republicans to dump Trump and McConnell.

But we could pick up 6 seats in the Senate if we are very lucky.

[DFW]

40. That is the number six I was talking about

It's a goal we can probably not attain through only our own efforts, but Trump and the more extreme of his Republican pals could push things our way.

[marylandblue]

43. I understand that, but they have a problem either way.

If they turn against Trump, they lose their base. If they don't, they lose moderates. This has been their problem all along. And all along they've chosen to stick with Trump in almost all cases. The ones who criticized Trump, like Flake, got death threats and saw their ratings tumble beyond repair. The rest have obviously concluded, they are better off staying on board and hoping the base pulls them through than leaving and lose the base while not picking up any anti-Trump votes.

[Honeycombe8]

42. He will never resign voluntarily. Never. It's not in his DNA.

It's weak.

The only way he could be gotten out of office is to blackmail him or threaten him with something worse than tearing up his male ego and appearing weak. Like the knowledge he or his family would go to prison, if he didn't resign. Like they did to Nixon.

Otherwise, he'll never resign. He MIGHT decided not to run for re-election in 2020, if things get really bad for him, or the Repub Party has a quiet talk with him.

[rainin]

12. I have a prediction. Multiple versions of every document will be spread around

so people are forced to question which one is the true version.

When the Mueller report is unredacted and published (or leaked), multiple versions will instantly show up. Everyone will argue which one is true.

The right will believe Brietbart's version and the left will believe the New York Times or the Washington Post.

[relayerbob]

13. He'll ignore or attempt to dissolve Congress

He'll never resign

[trc]

18. And republicans won't care.

That will be the answer in the senate.

[LiberalLovinLug]

19. One question: If he has cheated so much why ISN'T he under audit?

And being charged already through the IRS?

Wouldn't you think that especially with his history of fraud and suspicions of money laundering. The company he kept. That he'd already be on the IRS's radar?

Wouldn't it be a bit embarrassing for the IRS to be forced to hand over Trumps tax returns that are obviously ripe with tax fraud etc... It makes them look like they were either incompetent, or Trumpists themselves. Was the head of the IRS appointed by the orange turd too?

[shanti]

20. He'll never resign

He will take everything to the Supreme Court though, because that's his MO, and if anything, we've seen that he's definitely a creature of habit.

[scardycat]

21. Or make a deal..

We wont ask for your tax returns if you resign...OH HAPPY DAYS!!

[watoos]

25. I like your optimism vlyons,

but Trump will do a lot of damage before the courts start rendering final decisions.

People are getting impatient, just because we won 2 court cases doesn't mean that Trump's financial information is imminent. I see all of these requests for documents and subpoenas of people to testify being tied up until next year and beyond.

[DFW]

27. Pelosi and Nadler need to navigate this carefully

I'm pretty sure (though not sure where the line lies) that a sitting president can only be impeached for crimes committed while in office. Obstruction for sure, but they can't even get him for lying as he has never been deposed under oath while in office. Corrupt practices while in office are nebulous, and he can say he gave his whole business to his kids. Everyone knows that's a lie, but there isn't enough time to build that case before the next election.

I think it's either obstruction or it's nothing. Of course, I would hope that Barr, Mnuchin, Carson and the rest of them see serious prison time even if Trump does not (I'd settle for bankruptcy and poverty for life).

[BlueJac]

29. Sorry, I don't see it that way...

we have an on going shit show with no end in sight. The GOP will fight along with Trump to save his sorry ass!

[The empressof all]

31. I think it's possible he will resign with claim of illness

It may be his only hope to claim dementia. Pence will pardon him and his family as they have "suffered" so. He will live happily for the rest of his days playing golf and the kids will take over the grifting empire unscathed. Yes...I am just that cynical.

[CTyankee]

45. But he will be GONE! Yes, we'll get Pence but at least I don't see Pence as needing an intervention.

When the Speaker of the House declares the President needs an intervention, that is SERIOUS. It signals to me that she would rather battle Pence, who is misguided but not a clear and present danger to the country due to mental illness). Pence is horrible on so many fronts I can't go into them here. But our immediate threat is Trump. And it is SERIOUS.

[The empressof all]

46. Pence will not be elected again so he doesn't frighten me as much.

I agree 100%. Of course I would rather see the Trump and his spawn rot in jail but it's more important he be gone ASAP. Pence will never garner the support from the Trump cult members and he's too creepy for the more reasonable of the bunch to come out for him. The non religious of his cult won't be motivated to support him. He is certainly not a great option but one that I see as being more manageable than the current occupant.

[CTyankee]

47. and did I read somewhere that he calls his wife "Mother"?

Of course, that doesn't mean the guy is mentally ill, just a misguided religious butthead...

[ProudMNDemocrat]

32. Trump resigns, Pence will pardon....

And how well did that work out for Gerald Ford?

The state of New York will prosecute Donald Trump and Family, as well as shut down all of his Business empire homed in New York state for crimes, maybe even RICO.


Trump will never be out of the woods.

[uponit7771]

48. +1,

[grantcart]

34. Prior to the vote he will have a "major medical event" that requires "hospitalization"

and Trump resigns and Pence issues a "pity" pardon.

Trump will try and use the "deteriorating health" defense that is sometimes used by the mob to forestall state prosecutions.

He will engage in a full blown "sick out the clock" strategy to put on the brakes of state prosecution which is likely to take 3=4 years to actually start.

[mn9driver]

36. He won't resign if Turtle Mitch tells him the fix is in.

I cannot imagine what crimes would persuade Republican Senators to vote to convict him.

[bluecollar2]

41. Problem with that is Pence will pardon

All of them...if it gets past McConnell.

[McCamy Taylor]

44. And his base will cheer him, because they love that he is a fraud and a tax cheat.

Their dream is to finally get two nickels to rub together so they can cheat on their taxes too. And being dirt poor, they think that there is nothing a con man can take from them (they forget about their Medicare and Social Security).

But the suburban Republicans will be even more disenchanted than they already are. Because they have wealth that they can lose to con men.