I'm getting a wee bit tired of the insistence by even our team that this is a close race. It isn't.

[tavalon]

Here's a very nice resource that says, effectively, focus on your local races because the Obama- RMoney match up isn't even close;

www.fivethirtyeight.blog.nytimes.com

[rocktivity]

1. Can't see your link

rocktivity

[Voice for Peace]

2. ... patiently awaiting your link

[sadbear]

3. I suppose our greatest fear is complacency, right?

[tavalon]

12. Not anymore

The voters are incensed about the bald and heinous RNC policies, especially around rape (thank you, Todd Akin - you have opened this necessary topic and shown that your team is mottled with pus and pestilence).

I'm just wondering if this is going to be a landslide victory or a rout. And I wonder how many Democrats we can bring in on Obama's coattails.

Keep on trucking Akin and we will keep helping the USS Rmoney to crash into the iceburg of fundy whackadoodles.

[cali]

4. maybe so but your invisable link isn't evidence

for your claim.

[snooper2]

5. your edit is broken, try #3

LOL

[tavalon]

6. I'm not sure what I did wrog to keep it from being a clickable Link

but, I promise you this is a great site. I make an oath that I am not rickrolling anyone.

[BumRushDaShow]

7. You need to prepend the "http ://"

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[tavalon]

13. I did that and it did't seem to work

i think that might be my cue to go to bed.

[csziggy]

8. Is this the page you tried to link?

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com//author/nate-silver/

[joeglow3]

9. I disagree. Flip Florida and Obama wins 270-268

I will bet Republicans make sure Florida goes red. ANY other change and Romney wins.

[Life Long Dem]

29. Howard Dean said

If Romney doesn't win Florida, then Obama wins the race.

[joeglow3]

37. I agree 100%

[Mojorabbit]

38. Obama still polling ahead by a narrow margin here.

Hope the spread widens in Obama's favor

[joeglow3]

40. Just that take into account the right stealing 5-7% through fraud?

[cali]

10. Actually, Nate has been and still is forecasting a close race so he's

not a great source for your claim.

He's just claiming that MI isn't close.

[tavalon]

20. Look at the first two graphs

RMoney seems to think he needs, 50.1% of the popular vote and he's in, but since we have an electoral college, he just won't be able to pull it off.

[cemaphonic]

33. Look at the graphs again, and read the blog for context.

The EV lead is deceptively large, since there are several large states that are polling very closely. If Romney gets FL (which is very close) and VA or CO, he wins.

The second graph is just Silver's estimation of the odds of each candidate winning derived from his analysis of the state polls- It doesn't really translate into a direct measurable advantage for Obama. Silver, being the stats whiz that he is, is probably correct, but if for example, Romney pulls ahead to show a decent lead in FL, he'll revise that number downward.

Romney is facing an uphill battle for sure, but it's not a slam dunk for Obama at all.

[Fire Walk With Me]

11. That's what everyone said in 2010 and look what happened. The tealiban outvoted us.

Everyone must get out and do what it takes to win. "They" certainly will not be slowing down any. They're trying to steal our lunch again. Protect it!

[tavalon]

15. I hope I'm right about this

I want the president to do another term.

I would rather canvass for my local candidates. I really think that the election on the Presidential race is in the bag for Obama.

[nadinbrzezinski]

35. Go canvas in your local races

they are actually more important... I know heresy, but who is a judge matters, who is a city council member, matters.

[uponit7771]

19. I don't know where too many people said this is in 2010...by RCP number is was know EARLY that we

...were getting our asses kicked in turnout because of the stupid ass'd DNC lead

[cthulu2016]

14. On my planet 50.6% to 48.2% in August is pretty close.

299 to 239 in electoral votes in August is also pretty close, since the states are winner-take-all and thus electoral vote projections are subject to large rapid swings.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[tavalon]

17. Before the DNC bump

And there are far more people who might just vote for our guy because the alternative is the 1% ken doll and I think that that would elp the most.

[TheKentuckian]

24. I think such leads are at least significant in context of how small a percentage

is actually obtainable for either side. My guess is at least 88% of the electorate is locked in no matter what the other party does or doesn't do and no matter what their own party does or doesn't do. Some folks will stay home but none of the 88% is ever switching hands and those that lean regressive really, really aren't switching.

I believe the largest plausible lead to be had is 55-45 and I think you might have to be a popular Republican to actually do it and I only say that because I believe larger numbers of Democrats are willing to flip than Republicans, giving Republicans a little edge in greatest possible spread despite a disadvantage in pool of potential voters (minus flippers).

Surely not insurmountable and within cheating range especially when combined with disenfranchisement schemes but certainly not insignificant in present post-Reagan context.

[MrBig]

16. I read your source on a regular basis

Mr. Silver would disagree with your assessment of it not being a close race. President Obama is definitely the favorite, but all it takes is a few percentage point slips in a couple of key states to give the edge to Romney.

Romney has an uphill climb, but don't make the mistake of thinking the race is over when, really, it hasn't fully begun.

Complacency is my biggest worry.

[uponit7771]

21. I'm not as concerned with turnout as I'm am with suppression. Dems turned out in numbers in

...in every election this decade...Obama just increased the trend by a percent or two.

The way Bush was able to win was voter suppression in Ohio in 2004 and Florida in 2000.

[Art_from_Ark]

27. bu$h "won" Florida in 2000 because his campaign co-chair was counting the votes

and stopped counting them when her man was ahead. And then his Veep's duck hunting buddy on the US Supreme Court helped seal the deal.

[uponit7771]

18. +1 ****NATIONAL POLLS MEAN LITTLE**** Swing state polls is where the battle is

...and in those states voter suppresion is going to make a bigger difference than turn out

[summerschild]

22. As good as Nate Silver is, NO ONE really knows the bottom line

effect of the voter suppression at this point.

[Scuba]

23. Are you forgetting voter suppression and other election fraud efforts by the R's?

[Rowdyboy]

25. Voter ID and voter suppression can turn a two point Obama lead into a loss with no trouble...

Remember the elections of 2000 and 2004?

I read Nate Silver daily and while he makes me a little optimistic, thats about it. You enjoy the win whenever you like; I'll wait until the returns come in before I get complacent.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

26. It's the media that like "close" races because they sell more Fritos and shampoo.

As it is, this one's a yawner.

[DonCoquixote]

28. Here is why polls mean nothing

Here in Florida, there is a cmapaign to steal the vote. This is done from the highest levels (rick scott) to people who plan to stand outside polls and imtinidate people they think should not vote (ala thr folks with the sheets and the guns.) The swing state rule this election, and the enemy knows it.

[SheilaT]

30. The main reason for the Dems to keep on saying

that this is a very close race, is so that their supporters don't get complacent and not bother to vote. It's one of the reasons Truman won in 1948 -- too many Dewey supporters believed the election was already decided and didn't vote.

I do believe that in the end it won't even be close, neither in the popular vote nor in the EC. But I am definitely voting myself.

[malaise]

31. Same here

Rmoney is going to get a beating

[flamingdem]

32. We need to be careful still - voter suppression + 1 billion in lying ads just starting n/t

[ChoppinBroccoli]

34. The Other Day, I Read That It Comes Down To 7 States..............

..............and Rmoney has to win 6 of them to win. The States are Ohio (where Obama leads), Florida (where Obama leads), Nevada (where Obama leads), New Hampshire (where Obama leads big), Virginia (where Obama leads), Iowa (where Obama leads), and North Carolina (which is still close).

It said that Rmoney can lose Ohio and still win if he flips ALL of the other 6 States. Do you REALLY think he's going to win New Hampshire, just to pick one of the more obvious ones? And his poll numbers right now are as high as they're ever going to be because he's still riding the "naming the running mate" bounce. As more information comes out (and after he completely bungles the debates--those will be pure comedy--if you think Obama made McCain look like a fool.....), those numbers will go nowhere but down. This guy is toast.

I predicted back when there was still snow on the ground that Rmoney would get a Bob Dole-style beat-down, and I still believe it. That doesn't mean we should quit working, but if everyone continues to do their bit, this one will be a cakewalk.

[ParkieDem]

39. It's all about two states: Florida and Ohio

That's 47 electoral votes right there. According to fivethirtyeight, Obama is projected to have 299 electoral votes to Romney's 239.

If Florida and Ohio were to flip, Romney wins.

According to fivethirtyeight's "adjusted polling average", Obama's lead in Ohio is just 1.8 points. And Romney has a slight edge in "fundamentals" there.

And, while fivethirtyeight show's Obama with a slight edge in probability in Florida, the polling detail there shows him ahead, albeit barely.

Bottom line, it's too early to say that either candidate "leads big" in any of the swing states. Based on the poll details I'm reading at fivethirtyeight, RCP, the Cook Report, and elsewhere, here's where I think things stand - looking at the 11 states that can be called "swing" states:

Florida (29 EVs): Complete tossup
Pennsylvania (20EVs): Obama leads, and will win comfortably
Ohio (18 EVs): Obama leads, but barely
Michigan (16 EVs): Obama leads, but will need to spend $ here
North Carolina: (15 EVs): Romney leads, will need to spend $ here, but will ultimately win
Virginia (13 EVs): Complete tossup
Wisconsin: (10 EVs): Obama leads, but barely (GOP is energized with Ryan and Scott Walker's win)
Colorado (9 EVs): Obama leads, but barely
Iowa (6 EVs): Complete tossup
Nevada (6 EVs): Obama leads, but will need to spend $ here
New Hampshire (4 EVs): Obama leads, but will need to spend $ here

The President has an edge, no doubt. But don't let anyone tell you that the race isn't close -- it is, and it will be through November.

[IDemo]

41. Diebold + voter suppression + complacency + Citizens United + the Supremes

Unless this is a complete blowout it's nowhere near a done deal.

[ananda]

42. Agree.

Obama is WAY ahead where it counts.

I just hope he has coattails since he effectively
scuttled Dean and the 50 state strategy which
we SO need.