Economic indicator has been pointing towards incoming recession for 3 months now.

[DetlefK]

https://text.npr.org/s.php?sId=737476633

All Things Considered, · Signs are pointing to a coming U.S. recession, according to an economic indicator that has preceded every recession over the past five decades.

It is known among economists and Wall Street traders as a "yield curve inversion," and it refers to when long-term interest rates are paying out less than short-term rates.

That curve has been flattening out and sloping down for more than a year, raising worries among some analysts that investors' long-term view of the market is not positive and that an economic downturn is looming.

But on Sunday, an inauspicious milestone was achieved: The yield curve remained inverted for three months, or an entire quarter, which has for half a century been a clear signal that the economy is heading for recession in the next nine to 18 months, according to Campbell Harvey, a Duke University finance professor who spoke to NPR on Sunday. His research in the mid-1980s first linked yield curve inversions to recessions.

"That has been associated with predicting a recession for the last seven recessions," Harvey said. "From the 1960s, this indicator has been reliable in terms of foretelling a recession, and also importantly, it has not given any false signals yet."

...

But Harvey says no single economic predictor has the impressively prescient track record of the yield curve inversion.

"Yes, the economy looks good right now," Harvey said. "But the yield curve is about the future. It captures the expectations of the broad market in terms of what might happen in the future."

In 2017 I heard about the next recession for the first time. It was to be mild and scheduled for 2020 to 2025, and it was expected to happen because of natural cycles ingrained into the economy.

Then I heard that the next recession would be in 2020 to 2024 and that it would be bad and that it would be Trump's fault. (An ultra-capitalist who wants to go back to the gold-standard predicted that!)

A few months ago, I heard that the recession will come in 2021.

And now the prediction says early to late 2020.



The economy might be doing good right now, but investors are worried about the long-term consequences of Trump's policies...

[Wellstone ruled]

1. As long as Bloomberg and CNBC

are able to peddle the Fairy Tale of Prosperity for all,the Crash will come without warning. Remember how Leheman Brothers hit in the middle of the night! Same for Enron and we know how that turned out. Close to 100k jobs gone within weeks.

[SHRED]

2. A real estate crash is coming

At least here in SoCal.

When that happens lookout.

[democratisphere]

3. BASF is laying off 6,000 employees worldwide.

If the chemicals aren't selling, nothing is selling.