Contrary to Trump Claims Recession Appears Imminent

[real Cannabis calm]

A critical recession indicator used by the Fed just hit its highest level since the financial crisis
Carmen Reinicke
Jul. 9, 2019, 08:36 AM

A probability model used by the New York Fed to calculate the odds of a recession in the next 12 months just hit 32%, the highest level since 2009. A reading above 30% has preceded all recent recessions.

A key recession tracker just hit its highest level since 2009, sending a signal that an economic downturn may be looming on the horizon.

The New York Federal Reserve's probability model, which predicts the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months, delivered a reading of 32.9% for June.

That could mean tough times ahead, considering the measure has breached the 30% threshold before every recession since 1960. It sat at a precarious 28% in May.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/next-recession-forecast-new-york-fed-model-highest-since-2009-2019-7-1028338398?utm_campaign=browser_notification&utm_source=desktop

According to the Washington Post:

President Trump’s repeated claim: 'The greatest economy in the history of our country’

— President Trump, in a tweet, June 4

"We have the strongest economy in the history of our nation."

— Trump, in remarks to reporters, June 15

"We have the greatest economy in the history of our country."

— Trump, in remarks on a White House vlog, Aug. 24

“We have the best economy the country's ever had and it's getting better.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/09/07/president-trumps-repeated-claim-greatest-economy-history-our-country/?utm_term=.bd0c41b846e6

[Thomas Hurt]

1. The economy goes south Trump is done after having run his mouth.

The zombies will still back him but everyone else will figure it out finally if they haven't already.

[real Cannabis calm]

14. The Criminal-In-Thief has based all his alleged success on a "great economy"

And after destroying trade relationships with Mexico, where most of our produce and much of our meat is raised, he started a Trade War with China to increase the cost of everything else sold in the USA. ALL these price increases are passed along to consumers - including Trump supporters.

[jcgoldie]

2. I know its bad to say...

...because I realize a lot of people would be hit worse than me who can less afford it... but if that's what it takes to get rid of this existential threat to democracy then I'm ready to tighten my belt some.

[DavidDvorkin]

3. I understand that

I have mixed feelings about the possibility of a recession. The long-term effects will be good for the country, if it results in Democratic victories. At the same time, I feel callous saying that. Millions will suffer terribly, perhaps billions worldwide.

[Thekaspervote]

11. I've thought myself many times... you're not alone

[Arkansas Granny]

4. He'll blame Obama.

[TeamPooka]

5. When wil people learn that Republican President equals Recession in 2-3 years?

It's not just Trump, its all of them and then Democrats have to come in and fix it while they get to yell about the deficits they didn't care about while creating the recession.

[MontanaFarmer]

6. X10000! Great post!

My dad and i discuss this phenomenon all the time. Repubs sweep into power, blow the doors off the treasury and let their cronies into the loot, the economy rattles off like a guy on a cocaine binge for a short time, then crashes. Dems are forced to come in, raise taxes a bit, clean up the mess, and by the time things are clicking along again (Obama was an awesome economic success) repubs and their propaganda outlets have convinced voters that the creeping scourge of socialism is right around the corner. Rinse, repeat ad nauseam. It's as fucking maddening as it is predictable.
That was a ranty way of saying, great comment!

[Thekaspervote]

12. This phenomenon has been going on since raygun. It's called the 2 Santa clauses

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2009/01/26/two-santa-clauses-or-how-republican-party-has-conned-america-thirty-years

[real Cannabis calm]

15. interesting link

[Poiuyt]

13. The US economy always does better under Democratic rule

I remember reading an article back in 2012, just before Obama's 2nd election. It was in Forbes magazine or Fortune, or one of those financial magazines.

It turns out that in the previous 80 years, there had been 40 years of Republican presidents and 40 years of Democratic presidents, so they were able to make a decent comparison. In every single metric, the economy did better with a Democratic president—from family income to the stock market, GDP per capita, economic recessions/depression. The economy was better with a Democrat, and not by just a little bit either.

So I think it's fair to say that most Republicans don't vote in their self interest.

[Doodley]

7. Trump will blame the Fed, Obama and fear of a Dem win. His supporters will believe him and

his support will remain rock solid. That's how it works with Trump.

[Docreed2003]

8. That's exactly what he'll do

[Vogon_Glory]

9. Nightmare Scenario: The Recession Hits In Mid-November

After the MAGA Magoos and ill-informed voters thinking with their lizard brains turn out in force to give Orange Julius a second term.

[MarcA]

10. Don't cut interest rates.

If a recession occurs before or after the next election, a reduction in rates
will be a valuable asset. If rates are cut before a recession the harm will be
greater.

[former9thward]

16. "Recession appears Imminent"

What is your definition of imminent? I guess not mine. Does no one know what probability or percent means? The "recession indicator" is stating there is a 67.1% chance there will NOT be a recession in 12 months. 67.1% is a great deal larger than 32.9%.

[real Cannabis calm]

17. Recession "appears" imminent for other reasons too:

New duties on imports from Mexico and Canada are extremely inflationary; but not a detrimental to consumers as Trump's Trade War with China will become.

Do you understand the definition of "appears?"

The particular economic barometer, mentioned in the O.P., is rarely - if ever - wrong.

[former9thward]

18. Why are you not answering the question?

What do you define as "imminent"?

And where is the inflation? BTW you may wish to follow the news the Mexico/Canadian duties have been withdrawn with the new trade agreements between the U.S. and those countries.

[ck4829]

19. K&R