The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2020

[DonViejo]

By Amber Phillips
July 12 at 7:00 AM

Can Democrats take back the Senate in 2020? They’ll need to have a dream election to do it.

Republicans currently have the majority by four seats, and even though the GOP is defending seven of the 10 most competitive Senate seats on the ballot this year, most of those are in states President Trump won. Two Democrats on this list are also trying to get reelected in states Trump won.



We’re just under a year and a half out from the election, so these races are still taking shape.

First, some honorable mentions: Kentucky, where Democrat Amy McGrath raised an incredible $2.5 million in her first day as a candidate to try to unseat Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R). In South Carolina, Democrats argue Jaime Harrison could give Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R) a competitive race. We’ll also be watching to see if Republicans can recruit candidates in New Mexico and Minnesota to make a competitive run for these Democratic seats.

As they stand right now, here are the top 10 Senate races, ranked in order from least likely to flip parties to most likely. We will update this list semi-regularly, and much more regularly as the election nears.

10. Texas (Republican held): The Beto O’Rourke effect has a long tail. After the former Texas congressman and current 2020 presidential candidate came within three points of knocking off Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in 2018, Democrats are trying to rebuild his coalition to unseat Sen. John Cornyn (R). They’ve recruited veteran and former congressional candidate M.J. Hegar. (Though O’Rourke still has time to get in himself if the whole presidential thing doesn’t work out.)

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/07/12/senate-seats-most-likely-flip/

[no_hypocrisy]

1. Will Corey Booker simultaneously run for the democratic nomination for president and

for re-election of his senate seat? The DNC and the NJ democratic machine will need to know soon in order to get a candidate ready for the Senate in 2020.

[bearsfootball516]

2. At this point, he'd be better of dropping the prez run and focusing on the Senate.

[edhopper]

3. The problem I see

is that Georgia, NC, Indiana and Alabama will be stolen, no matter who wins.

[Celerity]

5. hard to steal Indiana, as there is no Senate election there in 2020

If Paedo Moore doesn't win the Rethug Primary, AL is lost probably.

but agree that GA and NC (Tillis is WEAK and vulnerable) will be open to stealing as they will be close races (especially if Abrams changes her mind and runs in GA and Foxx or Stein change their minds and run in NC)

[edhopper]

8. oops!

looked at the map to fast.

It's Iowa not Indiana that is up.

Still, that we have to factor in election theft is just infuriating.

[Celerity]

21. +1

Still, that we have to factor in election theft is just infuriating.

[brooklynite]

9. So they couldn't steal it when Doug Jones ran?

[Polybius]

18. They don't have to steal Alabama

It's bright-Red, our only hope is to run against Roy Moore.

[beachbum bob]

4. The problem is Pelosi not going after trump admin officials and

breeding dissatisfaction among the democratic faithful that will cost us in Nov 2020.


We gave her a mandate in 2018 and zero reason why AG Barr is not a subject of an impeachment inquiry.

These 10 seats are winnable but we need the showing of guts and resolve by House democrats or all is lost.

[Stinky The Clown]

12. Facts or verbal hand grenades, please

I am sick and fucking tired of Democrats slamming Democrats. This thread is about the Senate and you're talking about Pelosi. Yeah, yeah, yeah . . . . the connection you make is tenuous at best. I see your post as an ad hominum.

Stop it. Divisiveness is the last thing we need. Do you realize your FUCKING COUNTRY and way of life is at stake? That is not hyperbole. This is as bad as it has been since the Civil War.

[UniteFightBack]

15. WORD. nt

[Hortensis]

13. No, that is NOT the problem. Not even slightly.

People who don't vote Democrat when they secretly know they're supposed to are the problem. People who see evil and refuse to stand against it are the problem.

Moral weaklings whose ignorance is like a ring in their noses that Republicans, Russia, China, and Iran easily use to weaponize them against themselves are the problem.

People who secretly know they failed themselves and their nation and rush to blame everyone but themselves for the consequences are the problem.

[Liberal In Texas]

6. One of my complaints about the Party has been that

they've pretty much ignored Texas. We haven't been that far off. They haven't been grooming us for the last 20 years or so that they should have been.

John Dean was amazing...the 50 state strategy! Brilliant. We needed to play the long game.

And now, if the long game had been played better, this year coming up might be a game changer in Texas.

Alas...we'll see.

[Hortensis]

14. Might's a big if. Did you know that the choice passed up

always looks better afterward than before or during? Even if something was won without it? Psychologists have proven that. So of course in retrospect the 50-state strategy looks to some who aren't schooled in political strategy like a shining gold ring "they" didn't bother to grab.

How about the reality that the Southern religious right isn't about to abandon Republicans to embrace Democrats? They're very different from the religious right in western states. Something to do with the black menace posed by 1/4 to 1/3 of the population in their states, I suspect. (Here in Georgia it's 1/3.)

The South's strong religious conservatives have decided that liberalism is evil, that liberal Democrats are wicked, and that anything they do in opposing us is blessed by their God, including stealing elections and stealing children away from their parents.

I can't say about Texas for the presidency, either east or west, but I know our finite election funds must multitask geographically to elect people at all levels of government and that most precincts in the south are deep, dark holes to be throwing our funds down.

I regret our losses also, but not for a minute have I ever imagined I know more than the experts who have to somehow win in spite of a relatively weak leftist electorate who are devastatingly more prone to fail to vote than their counterparts on the right.

Btw, what percentage of current DU posters would you guess didn't vote or voted Republican in 2016? Don't say, just wonder maybe? Given the chance DU offers for malcontents to rant and "justify" their choices to themselves by badmouthing Democrats, I'm guessing some nonvoters who helped defeat us in 2016 do at least bother to come by here, if not the polls.

[Celerity]

7. IF Bullock runs in Montana, he has a great chance at beating Daines, far more likely than anyone we

run in Texas versus Cornyn. NO Bullock, we are in a lot more trouble there.

Also, Tennessee is an open seat (Alexander is retiring) and there is one candidate who would have the best shot, other than he already is refusing to run, Tim McGraw (yes the singer, lol).



He is 52! Run!!!!

[UniteFightBack]

16. McGraw is a Democrat? nt

[spanone]

17. Yes he is, along with his wife Faith Hill.

[Polybius]

19. TN is rough

It's so Red, bright Red.

[book_worm]

10. How does Massachusetts handle things? Elizabeth Warren is rising and if nominated

she would need to be replaced in the Senate--the governor is a Republican. This is one strong reason why I would not support EW if it meant her being replaced by a republican.

[In It to Win It]

11. I don't see Texas flipping... at least not yet

[Hortensis]

20. I've read we're running a bunch with military experience,

and/or intelligence, which should draw some wobblies. As for "dream" elections, GEs are not midterms, which are local, Republicans do have structural advantages, and many on the right have decided WE are evil and must be stopped. But this will be anything but a normal election, and all those who predict based on past behaviors are on very wobbly ground themselves.

Just saw that our wonderful, responsible press is giving air time to Biden being asked if he'd nominate Anita Hill to the Supreme Court. No doubt it'll be repeated until pushed off by something else outrageously stupid. If Trump were to get the power to arrest journalists, dreadful as that would be there are many I wouldn't cry over.