"Are We Underestimating Trump Yet Again?"

[Dawson Leery]

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2019/07/12/are-we-underestimating-trump-yet-again

"Although the 2020 presidential election is more than a year away, Donald Trump appears a better prepared and far more formidable candidate than he did in 2016—or compared to many of his current rivals. Those who are appalled by the daily shredding of the Constitution and by the degradation of basic standards of human decency may find it inconceivable that a president such as Trump could win a second term. But in truth, he is leaving no stone unturned in his relentless quest to remain in power for four more years—and we ignore his proximity to victory at our peril."

[Zoonart]

1. Just listening to a panel on MSNBC

Talking about how if the economy does not tank...Trump gets reelected.
It makes me want to run screaming in the streets. He is a criminal, a traitor, a RAPIST!
Seriously...where am I?

[Turin_C3PO]

4. It's all about turnout.

If we turn out, we win.

[Grasswire2]

27. It's about more than that.

It's about election security.

Very bad things are happening in states.

Example: SC is currently buying an new election system that works on Windows 7, which microsoft is ending support for -- hackable!

Example: Some states are buying a system that prints out a ballot with only a bar code to represent how you voted. A machine can read the bar code, but no human will ever be able to verify the vote. Hackable!

The very best election security info is available on twitter @jennycohn1.

Recently, the House passed an act that would protect the elections, mandating HAND MARKED PAPER BALLOTS, but it will not be brought up by McConnell in the Senate.

[murielm99]

5. This makes me afraid.

I always work hard to GOTV. I will continue to do so. Please, everyone, do as much as you can.

[Dawson Leery]

7. We all need to do our part. Tom Steyer needs to put his money in

registration and legal efforts.

[dustyscamp]

24. I'm doing my best to try and convince as many people as I can to vote Dem

[smirkymonkey]

32. I know!

How the fuck is this guy still in office, yet alone a viable candidate for 2020? I cannot even get my mind around this.

This is the ultimate in gaslighting, because I feel like I am going completely insane. There is no way this can be happening in a sane world.

[OnDoutside]

38. Wouldn't it be worse if they said that he was finished and no point voting because so many will be ?

[uponit7771]

2. Of course the article leaves out Trump getting help from Russia in 2020

[Turin_C3PO]

6. I think Dems

are much wiser to Russian trolling this time around. We still gotta be careful, of course, but I’m optimistic they won’t be the force they were in 2016.

[uponit7771]

8. Trolling wasn't the only way Russia attacked America in 2016 and 18. 2020 will be worse than 16

... seeing the level of penetration in 18

[Turin_C3PO]

10. If you're talking about vote flipping,

I’m not sure that actually occurred. Robert Mueller’s report didn’t find anything pertaining to that. It’s possible it will occur but we can’t really do anything about that until we get power. Outvoting the deplorables by a large margin is the best way to defeat Trump.

[uponit7771]

11. Don't need to flip votes to turn election, large margins wont be effective. Brute forcing republican

... pols into jail will be though.

That's bout all we got

[Dawson Leery]

12. When the Russkies hacked the rolls in Illinois and Florida, we are to believe they did nothing else?

They didn't delete certain names? Manafort gave them that information. Russia knows what to look for, what kinds of names to delete.

[Grasswire2]

29. and let's remember Ohio and Florida in 2000 and 2004.

Karl Rove is currently working with Brad Parscale on the 2020 campaign.

Anyone who wishes to wait for 2020 election to deal with Trump is signing America's death certificate.

[Hoyt]

13. Agree. Ruskies, Comey, GOPer lies and protesters did us in with lies, distortions, etc.

We should be ready for that this time, I hope.

[SCVDem]

19. Yet we swiftboated John Kerry.

Pure crap!

[Mr.Bill]

20. None of us has seem the entire Mueller report.

We've only seen the redacted version. We don't know everything he found.

Right now I'm wondering how may times Jeffery Epstein's name is redacted there.

[Mr.Bill]

21. The main thing we underestimated

is the stupidity of 60 million people.

[delisen]

36. Do you have any evidence to back up your optimism?

[Turin_C3PO]

51. Demographics are not on the Republicans side.

We do outnumber conservatives. Turnout has always been the Democrats’ problem.

[delisen]

52. Unfortunately gerrymandering makes our individual vote worth less than

Republican votes and the Russian propaganda machine is still still operating.

[customerserviceguy]

53. Gerrymandering

has no effect on the Electoral College, or the US Senate, for that matter. A state's Electoral votes go to whoever won the popular vote in the state, not whoever won the most Congressional districts. Exception of course for Nebraska and Maine.

[Skittles]

3. we have NEVER underestimated Trump

we underestimated RUSSIA

[Cosmocat]

37. We underestimate

Just how f****** stupid so many people in this country are.

[Skittles]

50. well

actually I figured that out when Reagan was made president

[unblock]

9. There maybe irony in that this time a lack of complacency may be what helps us win

I think the "complacency" argument as an explanation for our loss in 2016 was overdone, but to whatever extent it was valid, I really doubt there will be much complacency in 2020.

Donnie being seen as a candidate who could actually win might turn out to be the thing that prevents him from winning.

Well, that and him being the worst president ever....

[mr_lebowski]

14. I won't have to worry about it because if he's announced the winner on November 3, 2020

I will swallow like, ALL of the heroin (only cause I've no idea how to shoot it), and that will be that.

I swear to Dog ... I'm not doing this for another 4 years. No way. I'll be done.

Actually I guess I'd need to know where to score heroin too, wouldn't I? DAMN IT.

Man I hope we win ...

[Dawson Leery]

15. Conservative Chris Truax thinks Trump is enough to fire up the Democrats and swing voters.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2019/07/12/beat-trump-with-mainstream-ideas-not-far-left-fantasies-column/1703543001/

[OnDoutside]

40. FANTASTIC article, Truax pretty much hits the nail on the head, especially this

Far-left ideas will boost Trump

Democrats could, however, easily expand this four-state map — for the Republicans. Want to put Minnesota, Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire in play? Easy. Just run on policies like eliminating private health insurance, reparations for slavery, legalizing drugs and decriminalizing prostitution. Every one of these projects has been pushed by one or more Democratic presidential candidates. There may be things to be said for all of these issues. And someday, we should have a serious policy debate about them. Today is not that day.

Those legendary soccer moms are still out there and, by and large, they have had enough of Trump’s antics. But if you want to run on far-left positions like, say, resurrecting forced busing, they’re going to stick with the devil they know rather than vote for someone who promises to do things like send their kids on 30-mile bus rides every day.

This doesn’t mean Democrats can’t run on progressive policies. Talk about fixing and expanding Obamacare, if you want. Talk about universal pre-kindergarten. Talk about guaranteed parental leave. If it’s OK with those voters in Erie, it’s OK with me.

[elevator48]

48. Says it all.

Talk about a public option, or phasing in of medicare for all. Talk about making college affordable for all, but also alternatives such as trade and technical schools etc. No reparations talk. Right or wrong it's a killer. Talk about sensible programs to reduce student debt. Start an impeachment inquiry. No need to hold a vote. Do these things and Trump will be swept out in a wave.

[ProudLib72]

23. You gonna share some of that H aren't you?

Tell you what, I will find a rusty needle somewhere if you provide the H.

[mr_lebowski]

28. Sheeeit ... if I knew where to get it lol ...

You know I'd share w/my homies ...

Seriously though I don't know if I'd survive that night if we don't win.

I'm almost positive I wouldn't if someone tossed a huge bag o' roxies or dilaudid or opana onto my lap though, tell ya that much. Which there's 0% of 'actually happening', but ...

Given that I almost surely wouldn't survive 4 more years anyways man ... might as well go out feeling good.

[Dawson Leery]

16. kick

[Rhiannon12866]

17. I live in a Republican leaning district and was impressed at the number showed up for the protest

Last night. I knew a few people, but also saw those I knew who I didn't know were political. There was a lot of passion and anger there. Of course, there were a few loud and obnoxious Trump counter protesters, but they were a very small minority and got shouted down. I've been depressed as hell over all the Trump news which just gets worse and worse, but last night's turnout gave me some hope that people have had enough and are willing to stand up and speak out.

[Kablooie]

18. The problem is that only a small portion of the anti-Trump supporters actually vote.

While all the Trump voters turn out and I wouldn't be surprised if many attempt to vote more than once.

If the voter turnout was the same percentage as the Trump to anti-Trump supporters he would lose in a landslide.

[Rhiannon12866]

22. We've had regular protests against our Republican Rep since the election

Part of last night's protest was against her, though of course she didn't show up - the protest was right outside her local office, like the others have been, but this was an especially impressive turnout. But I know what you mean and this makes it even more imperative that we GOTV this time around. Though it's still beyond me how anyone, no matter who they are, could possibly support Trump.

[OnDoutside]

42. Still, if you get anti-Trump Republicans turning out on a July Saturday night, it must give some

hope that they'll turn up in Nov 2020.

[OnDoutside]

41. That's great to hear.

[MFM008]

25. Support him?

It amazes me he is treated like a non criminal entity .
He is a criminal.

[RandySF]

26. We are underestimating the power of incumbency.

[argyl]

30. Yes we are. The last three presidents were elected to and served two full terms.

That hasn't happened since Jefferson, Madison, Monroe.

Hell, we haven't had back to back presidents being elected to and serving two full terms. Ever.

So we've got complacency on one side and utter disgust on the other.

We must GOTV.

[BamaRefugee]

31. "WE HAVE TO GET OUT THE VOTE" is WAY too simplistic...

We could win 100% of the vote in lots of states and tRump could still win the electoral college.
So we need to GOTV in the absolutely crucial states that could keep him in power even if he loses by more millions of votes than he did last time. Hopefully we can come up with ideas, ideals, bumper stickers, bullet points, slogans, songs, hell ANYTHING, whatever it takes to get enough people in those stated to vote Democratic, otherwise it's a lost cause.

And those states are gonna be the most directly targeted by Russia to make sure it doesn't happen.

[Clash City Rocker]

33. No. But are we overestimating the country's collective intelligence? Maybe.

[Caliman73]

34. We are not underestimating Trump. We are simply not estimating the situation correctly.

We are estimating him by the metrics used when estimating a classical political campaign like Clinton, Bush, and Perot, or Reagan/Mondale where there was definitely partisanship, but there was not 30+ years of extremism, an entire right wing media system, and an almost entirely unregulated Dark Money system in place funding the rightward movement of the entire society.

Democrats seem to think that if we just combat Trump with "policy positions" we will prevail.

This election is about the very soul and trajectory of the country. If We do not offer a completely opposite and functional vision and plan for the US, one that reaches not only the base, but the 46% of people who don't even bother to vote, then Trump can certainly win.

[Doodley]

35. The fact is that the left are ineffective in opposing him or educating his base.

[Joe941]

39. How could he possibly win again. His colors have been revealed now.

[OnDoutside]

43. Of course he can win, but IF Democrats can not only energize their base, but show the middle that

there is a sane alternative that is worth their while to get out on vote for, this could be a big result for Democracy.

[Vinca]

44. We know what Trump is and we knew in the last election: a criminal, a grifter and a grade A idiot.

He won because the system is rigged (Hillary won by 3 million+ actual votes) and because some people were so certain Hillary would win they either stayed home, voted third party to "make a statement" or wrote in Bernie's name. The media is complicit in this, too. It's mind boggling they spent 2 weeks on Biden sniffing hair and only 2 days on Trump raping a woman. Democrats have to toughen up and fight back as if the country depended on it . . . because it does. On TV they were musing about how a Democratic candidate would respond in a debate with Trump about the topic of Iran. The Dem should open that response with the qualifier, "My foreign policy will not be determined by a desire to destroy policies designed by the previous office holder and I will surround myself with experts rather than television personalities and conspiracy theorists."

[myohmy2]

45. "Are We Underestimating Trump Yet Again?"

...yes, and overestimating how the average voter views the Democratic Party...

...half of the working blue-collar community views a perverted billionaire and his republicans as more representing their interests than Dems...the rightward corporate drift of the Democratic Party over the decades has convinced many that we are in the pockets of big-business...

...it took decades to find ourselves in this rightward position and it'll take time to re-brand and regain people's trust...and yet many in our Party believe we need more of the same...

...okay, then re-elect trump...

[Proud Liberal Dem]

46. We need to stop listening to that discouraging claptrap

And focus on nominating the best candidate that can win against Trump. Worrying about anything else at this point is counterproductive and demoralizing.

[Maxheader]

47. Stumpy is gone...

Cheetox will carry around the halo of a savior...But I think the democrats have the
heavy guns needed..It remains to be seen how they use them. Pelosi isn't helping.

my 2 centavos...

[JI7]

49. overestimating voters

[customerserviceguy]

54. He was able to do

what was considered a political impossibility the first time around. Now, not only does he have the full force of the Repuke Party working for him (I'm sure they've either purged or silenced the Never Trumpers), but he's managed to hone his division machine.

Seeing his personal approval go up by a few points rather than being drastically decimated should tell you something. He wins through division, hate, mistrust, and outright lies. There is no reason to believe he will change his strategy between now and Election Day.