This scholar nailed the blue wave -- here's her forecast

[RandySF]

So what about 2020. What does your model say?

My model for 2020 starts off with Democrats at 278 Electoral College votes, and that's a problem for Trump, because of course you need 270 to win. It does that because of my model's prediction, based on turnout and predicted vote share, that Pennsylvania and Michigan will slip back to the Democrats. I'm uncertain about Ohio, but even if Trump wins Ohio, he can't win the other three Midwestern states. Then as you point out I have four tossup states: Arizona, North Carolina, Florida and Iowa. Even if he wins all four of them, the Democrats have already won the election — and the idea that he would win all four is pretty unlikely.

I will have a much better sense about this once we see the participation rates in the Democratic primary. But I think what we’re going to be looking at is Arizona, Texas, North Carolina and Georgia as states where Trump is forced to play defense to hold on. I think by the time we get into September [of 2020] — I don't think we’re going to get to the point where Democrats are comfortable in the Midwest. I think we'll see a full-bore campaign and spending press in the Midwest all the way through to Election Day. But I think coming into September and October, they’re also going to be spending resources in the Sun Belt and other states like that.





https://www.salon.com/2019/08/17/this-political-scientist-completely-nailed-the-2018-blue-wave-heres-her-2020-forecast/

[MontanaMama]

1. Sssshhhhhh.

Russians are listening...

We have to GOTFV. Our very lives depend on it.

[Hekate]

12. Exactly my feeling, MM.I will not feel comfortable or reassured until the morning after the election

[Hoyt]

2. That doesn't make me feel that comfortable. Christ, trump is whe worst Prez in history.

[rwsanders]

4. Reality will never beat tribalism

Not that I think all sports are bad, but they feed into that same mindset. Makes them kind of sickening to watch.

[patphil]

3. Just my opinion, but I don't think it will be anywhere near that close.

Trump has lost the moderates on both sides because of his radical, hate-filled rhetoric.
Trump will not be able to rely on people not knowing what he will do as president. And that includes deliberately tanking the economy.
Trump doesn't have the advantage of Hillary Hatred.
Trump's base is only 40% of the electorate.
Trump's opposition is galvanized to bring out the vote big time.

I predict he will loose by 10 million or more votes, and the Democrats will get at least 340 electoral votes.
I also predict an increase of at least 6 seats in the Senate and at least 20 more in the House for the Democrats.

These are my pessimistic predictions. Optimistically, I think it will be even more.

Patrick Phillips

[anarch]

16. I'm also thinking the popular vote will be like that

I'm expecting him to lose the popular vote by like 10 million plus votes, but still win just all the exact key swing districts by like 1% (even exactly 1% in each district; wouldn't be a surprise) such that he barely ekes out a "win" with the electoral college, there's a bunch of controversy, maybe it ends up in front of the Supreme Court again, and they brush it all under the rug and just re-install him in office.

Then again, if the recession starts to take a heavy toll on peoples' lives before the general election, they may just say "OK, fine" and hand things over to the Dems, as someone points out below, as they always do after fucking up the economy. And in this case Bonespurs' clients have pretty much got what they want, including the Russians--the damage to our country is done, and for the most part won't be possible to repair.

[amywalk]

5. But, they will cheat their way to a win if it is close. It can't be close.

[More_Cowbell]

6. I don't think that Trump will be the candidate

He's cratering already.

I think it'll be Nikki Haley, and that Mooch has been deputized to go out and pave the way for her. First it'll be "Trump is unfit." Then it'll be "Nikki Haley can beat ... " whoever the Democratic candidate is.

She was in Iowa last week.

[PatrickforO]

8. Really?

That's interesting. Gotta be a ditch Trump movement. Heck, his own staff is sabotaging him so he doesn't do too much damage.

[Ponietz]

7. Every moderate should read the entire article

Much conventional wisdom I read here every day no longer applies. The rules have changed and that’s why McCaskill and Donnelly lost.

“The Democratic leadership — the way they’ve chosen to navigate the Trump impeachment stuff, and certainly the way they talk about their House victories and how to maintain their House majority, it tells me that they’re still living in a understanding of the data that is outdated. If you don't understand how you won, and what the concurrent political data environment is telling you, that is concerning. So I do see a lot of evidence that Democrats don't get this. I'm not sure why.

“I do know there is an increasing voice within Democratic politics that is leaning toward seeing the environment through my lens, and we saw that play out in 2018, in the campaign strategies of Beto O’Rourke and Stacey Abrams. What they were able to do in terms of their contests in both those deep red states was absolutely remarkable, and it speaks to the efficacy of a turnout-based approach, a strategic approach.”

[PatrickforO]

9. Well, look at what Stacey Abrams is doing in GA. And Beto in TX for that matter.

The base is galvanized. In fact, most sane non-base people are ALSO galvanized.

Trump's just gotta go.

[CTyankee]

21. I don't know about Stacy's situation, but Beto (IMHO) ran against a politician even slimier and

more disgusting than Rump. Ted Cruz is vile. That Beto came close gives me heart.

[sakabatou]

10. We can't get complacent because of polls and models

We still need to go out and vote!

[AlexSFCA]

11. I agree, dem primary turnout will be the real indication

[nitpicker]

14. +1

I work at the polls for my county.

If we aren't looking at breaking into the poll chief's emergency Dem ballot supply while awaiting resupply, this would be a not-so-great signal for the general election. Likewise, if we ARE looking to breaking into the R emergency supply.

And who shows up to vote in the presidential primaries could also be key. Will it be "just" the wealthy homeowners and retirees who show up? Or will the garden apartment renters show up too beyond the always-voting few?

[nitpicker]

13. I agree with Rachel Bitecofer about turnout being the key

From her July 1 forecast:

http://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/2019/07/01-2020-election-forecast/

(snip)
Indeed, the only massive restructuring I might have to make to this forecast involves a significant upheaval like the entrance of a well-funded Independent candidate such as Howard Schultz into the general election, which our national survey in March shows would likely to pull 5 votes away from the Democrats’ nominee for each one vote it would pull away from Trump. Other potential significant disruptions might be a ground war with Iran, an economic recession, or a terrorist attack on the scale of 9/11. Otherwise, the country’s hyperpartisan and polarized environment has largely set the conditions of the 2020 election in stone.
(snip)

Before revealing what my model has to say about 2020, I note one very important point of methodology. To construct predicted two-party vote shares for the Democratic Party’s nominee in each state, I use the best turnout estimate available for each state in 2018 for the Democrats. This is important because it allows me to capture the turnout surge we also saw among Republicans in 2018.
(snip)

[marlakay]

15. I use to be very worried about them cheating again

But I was thinking the other day, they always give us the presidency after totally messing up financially and letting us spend our time fixing it.

They got what they wanted 2 supremes for life and a bunch of other judges for life.

And the tax cuts. And abortion is almost illegal.

So now I am actually thinking they will let him lose knowing congress won’t let anything we really like big pass.

[Norbert]

17. I just think Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconson will not be that close.

Not this time around. Much has changed since 2016; the Hillary hate isn't there plus 20:20 hindsight. The voters in these three states are not going to let them slip into the dark side again, with or without Putin's help.

I was thinking the same thing about Iowa, North Carolina and Arizona flipping. This is my hope because if we have any coattails, the McSally, Tillis and Ernst senate seats could flip as well. Not only will we replace the narcissistic orange monster, with a little luck we will be close to ridding ourselves of the cancer named Moscow Mitch.

With that scenario, my only concern is that, on the time left Mitch will be all to eager to do even more fast tracking of RW ideologue judges and the monster will use the stroke of a pen to try to put the rest of his twisted agenda in place.

It's still a long way from 11/2020.

[Takket]

19. i live in Michigan...

and in 2018 the Dems trounced the GOP in just about every close/important race.

My district, MI-11, elected a Democrat for the first time since 1965 (minus one special election), and a woman for the first time ever. A major coup in a solid red district since 1883

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michigan%27s_11th_congressional_district

We will defeat drumpf... IF the election is fair. <---- that's the main issue

[Danascot]

18. Too close for comfort

Close enough to steal.

[Joe941]

20. The coming recession will tip the scale to D