U.K. food, fuel and drug shortages likely in no-deal Brexit: Report

[RandySF]

Britain faces shortages of fuel, food and medicine and a hard border in Ireland is likely if there's a no-deal Brexit, U.K. government documents leaked to the Sunday Times show.

Why it matters: The Cabinet Office forecast outlines the most likely aftershocks of a no-deal Brexit rather than a worst-case scenario, according to the news outlet.

The forecast comes as the Telegraph reports that Prime Minister Boris Johnson will tell German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron this week that the British parliament can't stop Brexit.
What they're saying: Current plans to avoid widespread checks will prove unsustainable, making a hard Irish border likely, according to the Cabinet Office leak.

The Cabinet Office estimates up to 85% of trucks using the main crossings in the Channel that separates Britain and France "may not be ready" for French customs, potentially causing up to 3 months of disruption at ports, per the Sunday Times.
The big picture: Johnson is due to meet his European counterparts ahead of a G7 summit on Aug. 24-26 in Biarritz, France, in what will be his first trip abroad as leader, per Reuters.

The Telegraph reports that its former regular columnist Johnson is expected to tell Merkel and Macron "that they have 2 months to agree a deal acceptable to the cabinet and parliament, without which the UK will exit without an agreement on Halloween."


https://www.axios.com/no-deal-brexit-uk-food-fuel-drug-shortages-likely-repor-177df087-3032-4407-84c4-cee18076acac.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=onhrs

[RockRaven]

1. BJ apparently thinks EU will cave, give him some concessions. They won't. UK is F-ed.

Well, the UK is fucked unless this leak works. If it sufficiently freaks the public out about the consequences of a no deal Brexit, then there is a glimmer of hope.

[OnDoutside]

5. Yes, and thankfully Nancy Pelsoi put the ultimate squeeze on

Johnson's threat of a no deal Brexit. During the week she said that House Democrats, and even Peter King, would block any US UK trade deal if Brexit messed the Good Friday agreement, up. Checkmate.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

2. I keep on hoping that Northern Ireland will finally see the light

and rejoin the Republic of Ireland.

Not too long ago I saw something about a road that winds through the border between the two Irelands, crossing back and forth seven or nine or however many times. That road will essentially be shut down if there's a hard border between the two countries.

[OnDoutside]

4. I'm not sure if I want to see NI coming in with us, to be honest.

There's been 98 years since partition, and we're not engrained with the British State like they are in the North. The Nationalist nordies have a major chip on their shoulder that we abandoned them, the Unionist nordies are akin to the Republican evangelicals replete with fire and brimstone anti gay, anti abortionists that would warm the hearts of their American cousins. Not forgetting the complete nutjobs in both NI communities.

Aside from that, there are huge economic differences where the NI economy is subsidized by Westminster. That would take a huge toll on the South, which would be a major part of any Border Poll.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

6. I don't know as much about the two Irelands as I should.

I recall in 1989, right after the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the pundits all saying that the two Germanies would remain divided for many years to come because of the many differences between them, not the least of which was the far greater dependence in the East on various social welfare benefits.

And of course we all remember how incredibly long it was before the two Germanies united. A bit under a year, right?

With enough will, there could be a united Ireland in a very short time.

[OnDoutside]

9. I agree, potentially we could have a United Ireland within a very short time, and there's certainly

a part of me would like to see it happen, but there are numerous concerns that will loom large if the rubber were to hit the road. Germany is a bit different in that economically it could bear the cost of integrating East Germany, we couldn't, or at least when people here realise the economic cost, the misty-eyed thoughts of a United Ireland will make them think long and hard. I'm sure the middle class Unionists would acclimatise quite well, they have a fair amount of interaction with the South over the decades because of rugby. Many have studied in the South or travelled down for rugby internationals, or latterly professional provincial rugby. The big concern is that working class on both sides will react badly, and violence could rear its head again. We're in a reasonable place right now, but throwing this into the mix could cause violent consequences.

[struggle4progress]

3. Vlad is happy!

[BigmanPigman]

7. Should Johnson just wait?

Will there be a no-confidence vote? Then what? If Johnson eventually refuses to step down does the Queen step in? This is so confusing for me.

[OnDoutside]

10. There's talk that there will be a no-confidence vote. What he might do after that is new territory,

and is a proper constitutional crisis. Jeremy Corbyn has already tried to rally the anti-Brexit groups behind him, to elect him as Prime Minister for enough time to kill Brexit and call a new General Election, but the Lib Dems and others have already said they would not accept him as PM. What I hope now is that a compromise candidate would be chosen as PM, and the same plan can happen, but Corbyn might try to block that.

[no_hypocrisy]

8. Trump is hoping to fill that gap with lopsided trade deals.

Will force UK to import US GMO agriculture, meats, and poultry. And if people are hungry, they will eventually not protest.

[OnDoutside]

11. He would screw the UK, but Pelosi wouldn't pass a deal.

[Hortensis]

12. More likely to get upset than actually hungry.

[Wounded Bear]

13. Bigger markets get better prices...on average anyway...

by leaving the EU, Britain becomes a very small importer of...well...everything. Prices on imports will rise, possibly dramatically.

[Mike 03]

14. Kick nt

[Takket]

15. The UK issuing "warnings" to the EU about making a deal is hilarious

Here is what the EU hears:

"Hi! UK here. Listen we are looking to commit economic SUICIDE and when we do that it will benefit all of you because many businesses will seek free trade opportunities in YOUR country to avoid dealing with the UK. So if you could write us a deal to weaken your own place in all this and make this self-inflicted wound less painful for us, that would be fantastic."