Looking at comparative recent president approvals on 538, trump's graph shows an immovable cult

[NRaleighLiberal]

If you scroll down on this page after the big trump graph, you get the comparisons of all presidents back to Truman, compared to trump

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

The orange idiot has never been above water - the remarkable stability of his ratings over his so called presidency shows the stunning polarization of the country, and also (likely) the relative impossibility of peeling any of his supporting assholes away. They are brainwashed - a cult - they are gone. I also suspect there will never be more of them - he has what he has and that's that.

And no other president (at least those listed) has ever had a presidency with no data points over 50% approval (Ford seems the closest in terms of the graphs)

[sharedvalues]

1. Hmm. Good and bad news.

The good news is that his supporter base is not a majority.
The good news is that we can win in 2020. Thats not true in some countries like Israel, or Hungary or possibly even Brazil, where reactionaries are an electoral majority.

There is bad news, however:
- People are being added to the base. Republicans are radicalizing young white men on YouTube, and via outlets like Daily Wire, Faily Caller, and Prager “U”.
- Republicans have doubled down on a minoritarian rule strategy. Between judges and voter suppression and gerrymandering and the problems with the Senate, they’re betting they can control the country for years with a minority, mostly white people. They may well be right.

I also think that some of the base is reachable. But to reach them you have to get them away from rightwing propaganda media. No one who watches Fox is reachable. To win them over you have to split them away from Fox.

[ProudMNDemocrat]

2. Perhaps we can peel away youg white women.......

When they realize Republicans want to TAKE AWAY their Reproductive rights, perhaps Voting Rights, Civil Rights if they be LGBT, etc.


What Trump will not get much of is the Suburban White Educated women, Latinos(minus older Cubans), African-Americans, Muslim-Americans, Asian-Americans, most of the Naturalized citizens(due to harsh Trump Immigration policies, Seniors, etc.


All Trump has is his hardcore base. We reach all the voting blocs, we win the White House and both Houses of Congress.


Trump can scream "Rigged election or Voter Fraud" all he wants if the Electoral College is decisive as to whom will be the next POTUS.

[ancianita]

7. Keep in mind that who Trump also lost were the NON-college educated women this past mid-term.

They're in big numbers, everywhere.

Keep up the "loss" of PP contraceptive and other services, the rise of STD's, the war against women moves by the GOP, and they'll come out.

[uponit7771]

4. Red Don's base weren't even a plurality in 2016, the 3rd parties over performed in the Red lead VSM

... states!

The over performance of the 3rd Parties is what did HRC in seeing she only got 100k less votes than Obama 2012.

This is why everyone who looks at Red Don's numbers knows something is wrong ... 5 anomalies in 5 red gov lead states all in one year.

[sharedvalues]

24. That's why a third party candidate this year will be a disaster

As Josh Marshall has pointed out, the right is cheerleading for Tulsi to run third party. Disaster.

[uponit7771]

32. +1

[jcgoldie]

21. "To win them over you have to split them away from Fox."

Are you suggesting we put parental controls on grandma's TV? ...

[sharedvalues]

23. Yes. And tell them about Rupert Murdoch

And why he designed Fox to lie to them.
Tell them about Murdochs $2 billion tax cut and how he laughs at Fox viewers for being suckers.

[dalton99a]

3. Kick

[Laura PourMeADrink]

5. That's what I don't get...why we aren't talking about

ideas and ways to pull in the non-cult.

[certainot]

6. talk radio listeners are the most important trump constituency but polls never touch it

really fucking stupid. understanding the trump event without factoring talk radio is like studying fish without water. and it is the key to getting these assholes out of washington

they are not gone - they are waiting for the talk radio gods to be discredited but instead, they are ignored. the 1500 radio stations blast excuses and redirection to blame democrats - if the cons paid $1000/hr for talk radio then 1200 radio stations x 15 hrs/day x 5 dys/week are worth about $5bil/yr FREE

yet completely ignored by the left and democratic orgs. much of that 'base' is soft - the secondary and tertiary audience that is too busy or apathetic to pay attention and get it through the family or friends or bartender

they just need to see the left pull its music earbuds out of its ass and finally stop ignoring the propaganda operation that's kicking its ass.

[PandoraAwakened]

14. This!

While seething racism is the underlying reason for tRump's base (I know, I know, the horror of saying the quiet part out loud, egads!), it is indeed talk radio that has sustained and stoked this hate throughout rural America.

A lot of people just don't understand this because they live in a world where they're on the Internet daily and they listen to music from digital playlists, not radio stations. They don't don't have a clue that in much of rural America, radio is the #1 infrastructure for how its residents find any kind of connection to the outside world. Every barn and every tractor has a radio and the overwhelming content blared out is hate propaganda.

Honestly, I wish Tom Steyer would spend some of his millions doing the same thing Mitt Romney did via Clear Channel when the right-wingers bought up all the AM channels---specifically to turn them into the hatefest (and free airtime for Rethuglicans) they've now been for the past several decades. Just buy them all back.

[certainot]

18. i think dem party and left org leadership mostly all live in cities so they have no clue

i think there's a better way than buying stations though - make the advertising industry actually apply market demand for the lies and hate. they want all those ears and a lot of advertisers still believe the ad industry's bullshit about it just being a bunch of entertainers being controversial to bring in buyers, instead of a propaganda operation getting input from russia

the only advantage they have, and at some level they know it, is their talk radio messaging monopoly. they will freak out and do half the media work when they see any challenge aimed at their precious talk radio. boycotts and protests aimed specifically at talk radio and the 88 universities that support it will get their attention, and that of the advertising industry.

as soon as americans start using artificial intelligence-enhanced transcription to digitize talk radio to any extent the radio advertising industry will have to anticipate stoprush x 100 and start asking clients if they really actually want to support trump, global warming denial, and racism before putting them on those stations.

true demand for that crap is minimal and the monopoly will fall apart. a lot of republicans know they'd lose without those stations helping them get elected. and any republicans ready to cross trump know limbaugh and sons will attack them if they do. seeing the blowhards on defense will embolden them.

and without all those talk radio stations covering for and providing material for trump he and his supporters would generally be a lot more vulnerable.

[PandoraAwakened]

20. Yes, the universities carrying this shit...

I've always felt this would be a good starting point for Dems to boycott.

But, actually, you mentioned AI-enhanced transcription. Yes! This would really be a way to bring down havoc. These Rethuglican politicians are non-stop "guests" on the radio circuit and they say the most vile, racist shit all the time because they know there's no audio record of it that can be replayed across cable news. They know it's strictly a closed loop between them and rural listeners. The only way they're exposed is if someone is actually recording the broadcasts 24/7.

So there's another project Tom Steyers could put his money into.

[certainot]

22. yeah that stuff needs funding. steyers, bloomberg, soros, etc. most universities have

media and poli sci depts that could have fun with all that extra data to analyze. media orgs too.

and you're right, most dem candidates would benefit from knowing what their republican opponents are spewing on their friendly local stations where they play to that audience. actually there are a lot of podcasts out there and often they label those so they can be searched for. i know devin nunes had about 50 radio interview podcasts on his .gov site a while ago, may still be there. the right software could suck that kind of stuff up, get it transcribed and into searchable form without a lot of time, i'll bet

[sharedvalues]

25. Exactly. Blue city dwellers have no clue

[certainot]

34. it's bad alright

the constant analysis always blaming fox and never mentioning talk radio is a clue. and why still no polling linking trump base with talk radio?

and why no questioning of sam nunberg about his work for trump "listening to 1000s of hours of talk radio" in 2014?

while some of them just think it's a faded technology some actually think mentioning talk radio gives it credit it doesn't deserve etc, and giving it attention makes it popular or something.

the main thing is they read and watch and there's nothing for them to read (except limbo transcripts- which would be pretty indicative if taken seriously). that's why AI advances in transcription can make a huge difference when someone starts digitizing/sampling the main national and local talkers so the media orgs and poli sci depts can start analyzing the coordination, russsian influence, etc

[sharedvalues]

36. It might not be hard to build your own AI transcriber

So you don’t need to use Sonix

[NewJeffCT]

27. However

that doesn't always work - a lot of those right-wing billionaires are okay with sucking up losses in order to spread the message - Rev Moon lost $100 million/year for nearly 20 years owning the Washington Times and many local and regional newspapers around the country are owned by various Right Wing conglomerates, and newspapers are not exactly a big money business, either.

[certainot]

30. those radio stations depend on a lot on local advertisers to keep going

anyone who calls talk radio advertisers to complain knows that most of them are not going to tell you they do it because they love limbaugh

many of them believe the bs they get from ad salesmen and most don't know how bad the content is or how much damage it does to a democracy - because there are no challenges or protests for them to see - just a few troublemakers on the phones.

or they might not like limbaugh and hannity but are okay with their local wannabes because they do more local stuff or review local food once in a while or traffic reports while attacking AOC and immigrants, etc

many are using radio to reach local audiences so they have to use print and radio. ad agencies will offer lower prices so they can bundle advertisers and shuffle them onto stations a business might not like if they wanted to pay more for control

they have been subsidizing rw radio since its start but - a lot of it's in debt but as you say they'll lose billions to make trillions in war, global warming, deregulation, privatization, tax breaks, etc. for most of the GOP apparatus it's basically free though, paid for by advertisers keeping those radio stations going

[Hortensis]

16. Be the problem you want to see in others?

Sounds like you're doing a good job.

[certainot]

19. see response above

[SergeStorms]

8. I don't think his base really likes him that much.

They're just too damned stubborn to admit they made a mistake trusting him and voting for him in the first place. To admit they were wrong would make them lose face with their MAGAt friends, who also don't want to be the first to admit they made a mistake. They'll ride that dinosaur right over the edge of a cliff.

[Poiuyt]

9. I do

I think his base (the cult followers) worship trump over Jesus.

[SergeStorms]

11. But why?

Just because he pisses liberals off so much? I can't figure it out. It's not like he benefited most of them. He actually put them farther behind, but they're too stupid to realize that.

[sandensea]

12. You're probably right

My impression is that the true believers are 20% or so (half of those who approve); those are the real Chumpkins, the ones motivated by Jesse Helms-style bigotry.

The rest simply stick with him because he's the Republican president - just like mommy and daddy always stuck with the GOP no matter what.

I could be wrong; it's just my impression from the Repubs I've spoken to over the last three years.

[Poiuyt]

28. Studies have shown that conservatives prefer an authoritative type leader

Their brains are actually wired differently with a larger amygdala than normal. This makes them more susceptible to fear and anxiety. It makes sense that they would be drawn to a demagogue like trump. (https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-human-beast/201104/conservatives-big-fear-brain-study-finds)

I believe this also plays into the racism and bigotry associated with the trump cult. They fear anyone who is "different" from them, whether in looks, culture, or beliefs.

This is all just my opinion.

[uponit7771]

33. around 1/3 of people who followed Hitler were true believers, same with Red Don

[LuvLoogie]

13. They know they walked into The Bog of Eternal Stench on purpose,

and with fair warning.

But they'd rather let immigrant children die in cages and American six-year-olds get shot to smithereens before the MAGATS will admit they're wrong.

[Pepsidog]

10. Blame Fox and Murdoch

[budkin]

15. His base is not enough to win

No independents this time. Also he won’t get to run against such an unpopular candidate.

[uponit7771]

35. +1, the only way Red Don wins 2020 is if he cheats and he's already committed to do just that

[Hortensis]

17. Key to understanding: "their belief that they are engaged in an existential

struggle against a wicked enemy -- not Russia, not North Korea, not Iran, but rather American liberals and the left. Many white evangelical Christians, then, are deeply fearful of what a Trump loss would mean for America, American culture, and American Christianity. If a Democrat is elected president, they believe, it might all come crashing down around us."

This analysis is talking about evangelicals, but it holds true for almost all strong RW voters. After the end of the Cold War, an internal threat of liberals/Democrats replaced the giant external commie threat as the enemy they had to destroy before it destroyed them. It's important to realize that, though they started with a natural disagreement, contempt for and misunderstanding of liberalism, seditious forces have worked for years now to divide the electorate by turning normal biases into relentless convictions.

Many RWers are also authoritarians, though, and will remain unquestioniningly loyal to their chosen leader until they finally realize they've chosen a loser, then many will fall away and look for another (bad) leader.

[sharedvalues]

26. This is a really good thread

Replies in this thread touch on most of the major causes: Fox, Murdoch, rightwing radio. And other replies talk about how to win some of those voters back. Props to all here.

[NRaleighLiberal]

29. Indeed!

[spanone]

31. K&R...