Here's Why The Prior Jobs Report Numbers Were Wrong By Over Half A Million

[Recursion]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2019/08/23/heres-why-the-prior-jobs-report-numbers-were-wrong-by-over-half-a-million/

In a stunning announcement, The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the official payroll numbers in 2018 and 2019 were vastly overstated. It turns out that the amount of new jobs created were tremendously inflated and had to be reduced downwards by more than 500,000 jobs. This embarrassing admission raises questions as to the actual strength of the job market, the success of the Trump-initiated tax cuts and how exactly these numbers are calculated.

The U.S. Department of Labor releases the jobs report on a monthly basis. It serves as a gauge as to the financial health and well being of the country. For instance, if there are more people obtaining jobs, then it is deemed good for the economy. Corporations, the government and individuals will make financial and life-critical decisions based upon these numbers, which reflect the direction of the American economy.

The newly revised numbers indicate that over 60% of the downward revisions emanated from the retail, leisure and hospitality sectors. These industries are closely tied to consumer spending. Our economy is highly dependent on individual spending, as it comprises over 70% of the economy. According to the Associated Press, “This was the sharpest downward revision in jobs totals since 2009, when the economy was just starting to emerge from the Great Recession.”

It’s little talked about, but the reported numbers are based on the Current Population Survey, which involves an assessment of about 60,000 households, and the Current Employment Statistics Survey, which canvasses roughly 160,000 employers to determine how many people were hired or fired.

[2naSalit]

1. I just figured it was just another lie to

placate the orange one.

[kentuck]

2. Is the unemployment rate still 3.7% ?

Was it manipulated downward?

[Recursion]

9. The U3 doesn't suffer from the same survey problems

It's a straight sample of one population

[mr_lebowski]

3. Surprised Forbes got this story wrong ... it was a downward adjustment of 'total employment

numbers', not 'new jobs created' numbers.

More accurately it's 'as of March 2019, instead of 166,000,000 people have jobs, really only 165,500,000 have jobs'.

It was a .3% reduction in total employment.

[at140]

4. Want a 100% accurate reading about how many jobs &

employment numbers?

There is already a 100% accurate number government has every quarter.
Which is how many workers are paying social security tax every quarter.
Every one who works or has a business must pay social security tax.
And the tax must be paid every quarter by law,

[empedocles]

6. The SS stats do not include those in the 'underground economy'.

Even the 'underground economy' estimated stats do not include those in criminal activities [drug dealers etc.]

[at140]

10. Neither does the Bureau of Labor stats!

Underground economy is just that...underground. But at least the SS numbers are as accurate count as any other system can provide. And it does not cost any additional money to incorporate. And it will NEVER be off by half a million.

[Igel]

11. I work for an employer with 330 people at my site

and not one of us pays FICA.

When I was in grad school, I worked 15-20 hours a week for a couple of years, and didn't pay a dime of FICA. None of the student employees--many hundreds of us--did.

Federal employees don't pay FICA.

[at140]

12. That is splitting hair?

Some others do not pay "FICA" tax as well such as Railroad employees because they have their own retirement system, or used to be that way, unless it has changed and I have not bothered to keep up with news of their retirement.

And as you correctly point out federal employees have their own retirement system.

But here is the heart of the matter. None of these "independent" retirement systems are "secret".
All those other system employees keep accurate records of HOW MANY are employed and paying retirement taxes. And when they file their federal tax return IRS knows exactly who paid how much retirement taxes.

So....to summarize 90%+ of US workers pay FICA tax. Other few who don't, the gov't knows exactly how many are working in those areas.

Therefore my pointy is 100% valid, add up people paying taxes/contributions into their retirement systems such as Social Security, Rail road workers, federal workers, and you have a more accurate count of how many are in the work force, than some stupid model bureau of Labor uses to extrapolate employment numbers.

[Newest Reality]

5. Miniplenty and Minitrue!

I just look around and listen to people off and online and the booming economy does not seem to factor in much at all. In fact, it seems very much to be the reverse.

In my mind, I just consider any benefits going to "them that has" and so, yeah, it all depends on whom it works for right now. This does not seem to come across clearly in the mainstream and so the information and motives are questionable.

Propping up comes to mind.

So: "The Economy is Booming!*"

*Not applicable in all areas. You may not be included. See terms and conditions.

[muntrv]

7. From the article...

" Our economy is highly dependent on individual spending, as it comprises over 70% of the economy. "

Yet the repukes keep pushing supply side economics.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

8. Here's a link to the original thread about the downward revision:

U.S. created 501,000 fewer jobs as of March 2019 than previous reported

[RhodeIslandOne]

13. This is troubling

Remember how many people claimed "Obama" was lying in 2012 when the numbers came in before the election?

[LAS14]

14. Interesting article. Thanks for the post. nt