This is going to be bad. Close to Cat 4 125 mph sustained winds predicted

[Lochloosa]

Last edited Thu Aug 29, 2019, 08:27 AM - Edit history (1)

If this track and wind is right, Dorian will cause massive damage. A little shift northwards and I'm out of here.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 20.5N 66.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 21.9N 67.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 23.7N 69.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 25.1N 70.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 26.0N 72.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 27.0N 76.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 27.5N 79.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 28.0N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/084434.shtml?cone#contents:

[Leghorn21]

1. Aw geez, these storms just explode these days in a matter of hours

Glad you’re watching carefully, loosa

Mercy

[rampartc]

2. new orleans checking in

this could cross florida and be here by Wednesday.

[Arkansas Granny]

3. If it does cross Florida, will it gain strength again from the warm Gulf waters?

[Lochloosa]

4. Very likely.

[Roy Rolling]

11. Metry Here

Yeah, crossing central Florida into the Gulf will weaken it. Crossing southern Florida and into the Gulf is a deadly track for somewhere on the Gulf coast as well. But Florida has a bullseye on it either way.

[Cetacea]

5. I'm calling a Cat 4 or 5

Media not informing people that the waters around south Florida and the Bahamas is 91 degrees.. That is insane. I suspect at the last minute Dorian will exceed the Category predictions.

[Lochloosa]

9. I agree. This is going to be a monster.

And this part of FL is really heavily populated. Not just on the coast, but inland. It's going to take months to clear this one up.

[BigmanPigman]

10. 91?!?

That is like a bathtub. It's 71 here in S Calif. which is normal.

That is very bad news for residents in the path.

[Cetacea]

35. This one is from last week

I cannot find any from yesterday, despite seeing one on the Weather Channel.

[bdamomma]

37. check out this site too

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc

[SunSeeker]

13. Wow, 91? That's not a bathtub, that's a jacuzzi.

[UniteFightBack]

15. I'm sorry but they are always mentioning that the water is warm there and fueling it. nt

[Cetacea]

34. That's a given. I did see one person mention 91 in an entire day of viewing.

I think it's criminal that TV weather people never mention climate change when it's clearly affecting the weather.

[roamer65]

25. Wow

That’s hotter than the South Pacific near the equator. I used to dive and the temp there was 85 F.

[Arkansas Granny]

27. I was in the Destin, FL area last month with my son and his family. I don't know what the temp of

the water was, but it was warm. I've taken cooler baths.

[Takket]

6. Slowed down quite a bit too

Yesterday it was coming ashore on Saturday. Today they slowed it 48 hours to Monday.

[NightWatcher]

7. I'm glad it dipped south yesterday

Are you thinking of bugging out?

[Lochloosa]

8. Can't cross the river cause of work. We have the emergency contracts to repair signals

Also, we have to maintain the generators for emergency power at intersections. Fuel them, hook them up etc.

I think we are going to busy.

[lastlib]

12. Stay safe! We need ya!

[Lochloosa]

14. Work building is rated to 150mph. I'll be ok.

[Hortensis]

22. You're those guys I want to hug as I see you out there,

which most of the time I don't of course. Back in Los Angeles, though, we used to look out and down from the comfort of our mountainside home and see not a person or car moving except for crews working in miserable, and potentially dangerous, conditions.

Hope this one goes easier than expected on you guys after all.

[UniteFightBack]

16. I can't imagine the anxiety that is caused by hurricanes bearing down on you. nt

[GulfCoast66]

38. You just learn to live with it.

Prepare all you can then wait. Most end up missing

[mcar]

17. Looks like it shifted more west/south

It's going to be a bad one, wherever it lands.

Time to gas up the vehicles.

[Javaman]

18. I just hope no one else other than the orange asshole suffers.

I made this prediction the other day...

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=12410488

[Lochloosa]

20. Well bless your heart.

I have lived in Florida my entire life. The is not hysteria. I'm pretty sure I know what I'm talking about.

Been here done that.

[malaise]

21. I emailed my Miami sis last Friday

and told her I had a bad feeling and she'd better get all her supplies ready. We spoke on Sunday. They are as ready as possible for whatever is coming. Last night she called and said she could not believe the chaos - those of us who have experienced bad hurricanes aren't hysterical - just serious about preparing and warning others to do the same.

This could be very very bad

[tblue37]

23. My daughter and her family live in Orlando. Is that in Dorian's path now? nt

[malaise]

26. We don't know yet

but Florida is narrow.
If this hurricane is wide and comes in midway up the east coast, the impact will vary from the center to the outer bands. Think of the complete diameter of a circle. That is my real worry. The worst of it will be closest to wherever gets the direct hit. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
It will all become clearer by tomorrow - but most models say bad news for Florida

[Lochloosa]

30. If I lived in Orlando, depending on my needs I would be looking at all my options

Stocking up on provisions, looking at shelters or just leaving.

[GulfCoast66]

39. Your family will be fine.

All the hotels in the Orlando area are where coastal residents flee to.

I live in the Orlando area and have thru 4 major hurricanes. Worst I had happen was needed a new roof.

[GusBob]

28. 50 + year resident. My first cane was Camille

This thread went from a cat 3 in the OP to a Cat 5 in post 5

Thats bullshit Sir

I can recognize unnecessary hysteria when I see it

You should know better

[Lochloosa]

31. Your concern is noted. And I do know better.

There is nothing in my post that even closely borders on hysteria. It's my fucking opinion that this is going to be really bad.

And I do think this has a really good potential to move to a Cat 4 status. It has a lot of very warm water to go over and is predicted to slow down.

But thanks.

[Hortensis]

29. What "hysteria," GusBob? We have friends and family in

Florida who are no doubt doing what they need to -- what they don't always have ready in place. Some leave, some stay depending. But not depending on hysteria.

We have our own ancient waterfront snowbird mobile home on an estuary off Tampa Bay where water tops the patios on both levels in bad storms, but please don't interpret this as an hysterical outpouring from me up in Georgia.

The married son of our friends who live year-round in their MH across the way, and their DIL, are always on call in their respective ERs during hurricanes, and our friends prefer to take their small granddaughter to a shelter and make a play party of it rather than heading out of town. They also keep a stock of things in a shed that they'll want, air beds, toys, etc., ready to load into the car when it's time, and don't stock hysteria among them. When I texted her yesterday, she regretted that the storm would likely mess up the flowers in our yard, which are apparently particularly pretty right now.

Better picture?

[Lochloosa]

33. Thank you.

[Hortensis]

36. :) TYVM, and others reporting from hurricane country.

I'm reading these threads to see what you guys are thinking and to wish you well.

[roamer65]

24. Welcome to life at 415 ppm CO2.

At 500 ppm the show gets even better.



If you can get out of the path, do it. Be safe, DU’ers.

[dameatball]

32. Rut-Roh! Supposed to close on a house in Putnam county one week from Monday.

I hope it will still be there.
By the way, I don't think that speculating on what a hurricane will do is anything approaching hysteria. It is something of interest to many members.