Woa that hurricane is taking a very very bad, bulls-eye path to central florida. Damn. Nasty lookin

[lindysalsagal]

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/os-ne-hurricane-dorian-florida-trajectory-20190829-4hsil5ohkbe6hiliclypni3e6m-story.html

[tblue37]

1. My daughter in Orlando assures me she & her family are prepared. Hope so! nt

[lindysalsagal]

2. Keep us posted.

[Dr Hobbitstein]

7. Orlando usually fares quite well in these storms.

It’s quite a ways inland, and by the time it’s hit the storm has already been slowed by the barrier islands followed by the coastal cities like Cocoa, Melbourne, and Daytona.

[Blue_true]

11. Exactly. There may be downed trees and power outages and damage to weak structures,

but unless the hurricane spawns tornadoes, inland places like Orlando won't suffer major damage.

[Hortensis]

19. I've heard that. Poor Cocoa, etc. Even being a little inland really matters.

The current model heading right for coastal Tampa/St. Pete this time (but mercifully after crossing the peninsula) is interesting because so far no hurricane eye has ever hit it, even a depleted one. A diagram in a book I have on Florida hurricanes shows the known tracks at that time mostly forming a big, sloppy spaghetti X, with Tampa Bay sitting in a little triangle it forms to the west. Irma was on its way and of course came so close it sucked up most of the water in the bay but the eye area shifted course inland before hitting.

[Dr Hobbitstein]

20. Cocoa has the benefit of being behind barrier islands.

Those islands contain the cities of Merritt Island and Cocoa Beach.

Same with Melbourne/Palm Bay. Our cities end at the east at a river. Other side of that is barrier islands containing Satellite Beach, Indialantic, Melbourne Beach, and Sebastian.

[Hortensis]

21. Never lived there, but from what you say it makes a

real difference, not just a little one.

[Dr Hobbitstein]

25. It does, yes. Most large storms that hit Brevard get fizzled by the barrier islands.

Land, in general, makes a difference. It loses intensity quickly the further inland it moves.

With that said, I am NOT looking forward to this storm. We're prepped. Will be boarding up tomorrow. Depending on the trajectory Sunday evening, we may head to my sister's. Even though she's only 10 miles away, her house is wood frame with full brick exterior and much shorter trees in the yard. Mine is stucco on wood with 3 50+ foot slash pines around the front of the house. In a Cat 4, I'd feel safer to have me, my wife, and my kid there instead of here.

[Hortensis]

28. Hmm! Dorian's eye might not hit?! Fantastic, but would

still be awfully close to you guys in coastal areas anyway. Amazing that those little strips of land have such an important effect on storms themselves.

I wonder how many millions "evacuate" to other homes. Some empty nesters we know in central FL have a rambling masonry block house made from two joined together, and these things turn into house parties.

[Dr Hobbitstein]

30. People on the barrier islands usually evacuate.

If they don’t, they are stuck until after the storms and the authorities reopen the causeways. Believe it or not, a lot of them usually stay.

Evacuating to another house in the area is common, too. The infamous hurricane party. Done a few of those...

[Hortensis]

34. :) Really?! That's not what all those media interviews afterward

with people who didn't evacuate all say. Terror to dreadful to bear, a miracle they survived.

Still, it is a surprise that they do out on those little strips of sand.

[Dr Hobbitstein]

37. Oh, lots stay... But the sensible ones leave.

In this area, beachside is prime real estate.

[doc03]

3. I have a friend in Daytona, it's been hit twice in

three years looks like they could get another one.

[Blue_true]

12. They are right on the eastcoast. Yeah, they should be worried. nt

[backtoblue]

4. Please be safe

My thoughts and prayers are genuine. Be safe my friends.

[Dr Hobbitstein]

5. Not really. Central Florida is in the center of the cone,

but the hurricane can make landfall anywhere within that cone. So, path could go through Miami. Or through Jacksonville. Or Melbourne. It’s too early to know where it’s gonna hit, and the “cone of uncertainty” (as it’s called) is kind of misleading if you aren’t familiar with it.

I’m in Central Florida (Palm Bay now, but lived in Melbourne and Orlando as well). Been through a few of these things in my 39 years here.

[mitch96]

8. "the hurricane can make landfall anywhere within that cone"

Agree... It's too early to tell.. Start really checking three days out then two days out. All the spaghetti lines get real close together about then so the computer models start to agree..
I remember Hurricane Andrew (cat 5) blew up to a monster just a day or so before land fall. It was suppose to hit Ft Lauderdale/Hollywood/Miami and took a jog. Hit Homestead 40 miles south...
I hate these thing.. Like you been thru a bunch of them...
m

[Dr Hobbitstein]

9. I remember Andrew was slated to hit Brevard in '92.

We had just moved into a concrete block house in Melbourne, just a couple blocks from the river, 15 minutes to the beach. I was 12. School was slated to start that week, and we were delayed to the impending storm. Then it turned last minute and hit Homestead.

[Blue_true]

13. My parents talked about hurricane Dora in a way that used to make my blood run cold.

According to them, that was one nasty hurricane.

[Wiseman32218]

6. I do not wish for anyone to be a victim from this storm but it looks to be headed south of

Jacksonville.

My prayers and best wishes to anyone affected by this storm!!! We need to address Climate Change!!!!

[mcar]

10. My son and his GF just finished loading up our old van with his bedding and stuff

to move back into his Orlando apartment this weekend (he was away over the summer and had sublet his place).

We're in West Central Florida on the Gulf Coast - Dorian is heading here after Orlando. I don't know who I'm more worried for - GFs parents are in Orlando and are well prepared so they can hunker down there.

I've just ordered a cartload of batteries and flashlights from Amazon to supplement what we have. I'll spend the next few days filling up bottles, jugs, and plastic bins with water. We've got plenty of food.

I do not do well with extreme heat, despite (or because of) living in FL for 27 years. I'm not looking forward to this.

[Blue_true]

14. What type of food do you stock?

The storm that hit us two years ago knocked out power in some places for days, but some areas came right back up, so I didn't have a food problem since I was able to cook.

[mcar]

15. I've got the usual canned things

I'll be cooking a large turkey breast this weekend - we learned to keep the refrigerator and freezer closed to keep in the cool so it should last us a while.

We are fortunate to have a next door neighbor who lets us share his generator for a few hours a day - during Irma, SO and DS were able to cook, charge electronics, etc. every day.

We were out of power for 5 days with Irma - that's the longest we ever lost power. I headed to the hills (Asheville, NC) right before so was spared that agony.

[Hortensis]

16. That is fortunate. I also have serious problems with overheating,

medical issues. We keep a couple of $20 battery-operated fans, a box of batteries, and a battery charger that can get power from regular house current or a car battery. When we take our travel trailer on the road, I can just set one outside by me and be comfortable in temperatures I otherwise couldn't tolerate, same for sleeping during too-hot nights.

Oh, Irma! Watching from GA, we emotionally wrote off both our ancient mobile homes one after the other as she went for them, one waterfront in an old MH park right off Tampa Bay on the Manatee River estuary, the other on a marsh in central inland FL. Neither, bizarrely, had any damage at all and power was restored to the park very quickly, while power was out for a week in our rural N. GA county and we had three trees down. Go figure. We didn't know we'd be able to just go stay in FL when we lost power, so our version of Ashville was a road/fishing trip around KY.

Turkey sounds good. Hope all continues well for you, Mcar.

[mcar]

17. And you, Hortensis

[Wounded Bear]

18. Have a friend who was on a cruise that was cut short...

Apparently now in Miami, and not sure if they can get a flight out.

It's on the southern side of the storm, so maybe they can hunker down in a hotel.

[lindysalsagal]

22. Lucky to get back safe ahead of the storm.

[Wounded Bear]

24. She sent an IG from out as sea that said they were ending cruise early...

so that part wasn't a "surprise." But, of course they had to change flights, and a lot of people were doing the same thing, I'm sure.

OK, just checked my IG feed. Apparently, they've made it to an airport in Tennessee, so making their way back to the great Pacific Northwest.

[Cha]

23. My sister and Family live in

Gainesville, Florida.. I hope everyone everywhere stays safe!

[Baclava]

26. or it could miss FL completely and hit the Carolinas

[lindysalsagal]

29. That's the report on msnbc 7 am sat. Hope this is all good news.

[Baclava]

33. Great news for FL if track holds, heading W now, hate when u have to hope for a hard right

Its gonna be close I think

[steve2470]

27. The projected path seems to be shifting eastward

Earlier projections had it moving more to the west of Orlando south of Kissimmee and Walt Disney World, but the path has shifted east throughout today.

As of 8 p.m., the path has it cutting through Orange County between Bithlo and Christmas late Tuesday evening.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/os-ne-when-will-hurricane-dorian-hit-orlando-20190829-dsdvq32j7vhdlooz67ekje5dau-story.html

By RICHARD TRIBOU
ORLANDO SENTINEL |
AUG 30, 2019 | 8:37 PM (so it was written almost 2 hours ago)

Next major update is at 11 PM EST.

[Skidmore]

31. Worried about relatives

in New Providence, Eleuthera, and Grand Bahama, some elderly. Phone and electrical services have been spotty since the last big hurricane.

[cwydro]

32. Now it's heading for us in the Carolinas.

Very glad my friends in Florida are (mostly) out of danger, but very worried about my friends on the SC coast. Coastal areas of Florida still look to be in for a bad blow, and god forbid, surge.

[lindysalsagal]

35. Prepare for power outages and lack of gas. Be safe.

[cwydro]

36. I'm pretty far inland, but I remember Hugo.

Having lived in Florida for so many years, I’m always prepared.