This morning's Euro model is bad news for the entire SE Coast and Gulf of Maine

[jpak]

https://www.windy.com/?24.587,-82.573,5

Landfall Palm Beach

Passes over Lake Okeechobee

Orlando

JAX

Hugs entire GA, SC and NC coastline.

Returns to sea near Cape Hatteras

Enters Gulf of Maine

Second landfall Downeast Maine, New Brunswick

This has been consistent for 3 days now.

On Edit - NHC rainfall forecast

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0519WPCQPF+gif/090144WPCQPF_sm.gif

[Vinca]

1. They usually peter out by the time they get to Downeast Maine.

My husband and I were remembering the "Storm of the Century" that happened sometime in the early 80's. We were living in southern Vermont at the time and kept waiting for the storm. The neighbor across the street actually taped his windows. The news broadcasts had us half scared to death. I don't remember it even raining. Let's hope that happens this time.

[jpak]

2. Tropical Storm Irene in 2011 just grazed my backyard in Maine - but it hammered VT

I watched it come over my house from the porch - pretty frightening and I lost power for 3 days.

I've been in two CAT 2 hurricanes in GA and FL and rode out Katrina in Pensacola (it was really bad there - no gasoline for 3 weeks).

The Euro model has it **racing** across the Gulf Stream and into the Gulf of Maine.

This is going to happen REALLY fast for folks up my way....

Be afraid.

[Vinca]

16. Agreed. Irene was a terrible storm. I drove into the southern Vermont town we live near

and an entire street in the main business district was under water. It was rushing down the street so fast you could kayak in it. It was a heck of a mess. It also took out a senior housing complex that had been around for decades.

[True Dough]

3. I believe the European model is generally considered more accurate than the American model?

Even so, that's over a week away. Lots could happen between now and then. Even with Dorian approaching Florida they've been narrowing down its point of landfall just now. So I'm not going to get excited just yet. But it's always good to be aware and prepared.

[jpak]

4. The Euro has been consistent for 3 days now

And the National Hurricane Center Dorian rainfall map concurs with it.

Just sayin'

[captain queeg]

11. The Europeans have a better super computer

Though I thought the US was supposed to be upgrading. Probably the money got cut by the repugs.

[jpak]

12. The GFS ('Merican Model) has it hitting Palm Beach as well (just a tad to the north of the Euro)

and moving up the *west coast* of FL and into South Georgia.

It doesn't forecast a Gulf of Maine hurricane though.....

[sir pball]

15. We have more computing power now, it came online last year

It's less about the raw horsepower though - the Europeans have had more accurate models for a while now, well before Trump. Maybe NOAA should ask to see their code and see what they're doing differently.

[jpak]

5. I checked the wind field for Sunday Sept 8 - a CAT 1 hurricane in the Gulf of Maine

Max sustained 81 knots = 93 mph.

https://www.windy.com/?2019-09-08-06,42.852,-69.741,6

[lark]

6. Damn, I hope this is wrong.

Hurricanes almost never hit Jax directly, only once in recorded history has that happened. Hurricanes often hit St. Augustine, weaken and are tropical storms when they hit Jax. Either that or they go straight up the coast, miss us and hit NC or SC instead - this is more common than the first scenario.

[jpak]

7. It will weaken by the time it gets to JAX

n/t

[lark]

8. I just hope it weakens to the point where winds & rain aren't that high.

My neighborhood is right by the St. Johns and in the middle of an old growth Live Oak forrest. We are on a hill, so the storm surge would have to be over 20 ft. for us to be in danger. BUT - we have a large lot and over 20 Live Oaks, some quite old and very large. That's the only thing I really worry about because there's 8 trees that could take out our house or a good portion of it if they fell wrong.

[jpak]

9. Wind - not so much - low Tropical Storm Rain - 6-10 inches

n/t

[lark]

10. Jax. is safe with winds up to 60mph, in general.

Over that and trees start going down. Lots of rain lowers the threshold for trees uprooting, though I don't know what the unsafe # is.

[GulfCoast66]

13. Seriously doubt the eye hits Florida.

Seen it time after time the ‘big’ one is heading for the east coast of Florida. And almost every time it turns up north just west of the Bahamas. 1992 and 2004 being the big exceptions. The 11:00 forecast already shows that trend compared to the 5:00am forecast.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m fully prepared for a hit. But think its going slow enough to allow the steering high pressure center to slide over.

[jpak]

14. Only one model suggests that

[GulfCoast66]

17. I'm aware.

But one thing you can almost always be sure of. 4 day out forecast are seldom if ever correct. Often they are radically incorrect.

[True Dough]

18. Looking more and more like you're going to be right

Experience means something!

[True Dough]

19. The latest projection shows Dorian will not make landfall in Maine

Still too soon to know for sure but, as I said, too soon to be panicking as well.