2020 Electoral Map Could Be Smallest In Years

[applegrove]

2020 Electoral Map Could Be Smallest In Years

August 31, 2019 at 10:07 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 42 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2019/08/31/2020-electoral-map-could-be-smallest-in-years/

"SNIP.....

Dan Balz: “Just four states are likely to determine the outcome in 2020. Each flipped to the Republicans in 2016, but President Trump won each by only a percentage point or less. The four are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida. Many analysts point to Wisconsin as the single state upon which the election could turn.”

“Shifting demographics, the growing urban-rural divide and the gap between white voters with and without college educations have helped to create an electoral map unlike those of the recent past. So too have Trump’s unique profile, messaging and appeal.”

Use my interactive Electoral Vote Map to test your own assumptions.

......SNIP"

[MFM008]

1. Or

Or it could be a blowout against the maggot.

[MontanaFarmer]

2. Arizona is a state we'll try to win.

No doubt about it. Top tier Senate race and a state that's demographically purple. Dems will take a run at Georgia also, with 2 Senate races there.

[Lithos]

4. AZ and NC

Not holding out for Florida - they are crazier than Texas there....

L-

[GulfCoast66]

6. Bullshit. We voted for Obama twice. Texas has been red since 76.

If we win Texas, Florida is in the bag.

But we won’t win Texas. We may very well win Florida.

There is a reason that even with a 20 year republican lock on power we are not open carry nor have any crazy anti-abortion laws. Republicans know their hold on power means staying away from most social issues. Texas is bat shit crazy on both those issues.

[Lithos]

7. Your state government has been removing voters in a way which - to me - throws it into doubt

Not saying there are not good people, but the government of Florida is led by crazies - your Governor leading the pact.

I do apologize - I should have been clear to my reasoning.

L-

[GulfCoast66]

9. I was certainly not defending our republican government.

But saying Texas is closer to being Blue than Florida is crazy.

Like you, I hope they are both blue very soon. And think in a decade both will be. But trump can be beat here. We have recently voted for Democratic candidates. Not so much Texas.

Our House Representatives are 14 republican 13 Democratic. Texas is 23 Republican to 13 Democratic. You tell me who is closer to being Blue? Yeah, gerrymandering and voter suppression has something to do with it. We passed a constitutional amendment disallowing partisan gerrymandering. The republican legislators have done their best to water it down, but it has had an effect. But facts are facts. We are way closer to being a Democratic state than Texas.

[Lithos]

17. LOL

No - did not mean to imply Texas was Bluer than Florida. I do not think Texas is going to be Blue for many years and only after some major structural changes to the State government (gerrymandering, etc.) have changed. Was implying at that point your Republicans were crazier than our Republicans. Yes, I live in Texas.

My main thing was that I think Florida has been effectively gerrymandered out of the equation by the GOP for the 2020 election and that better time and energy should be made going after NC and AZ as a counter-balance to a singular WI strategy. To your point, I do not think Texas is going to go blue this cycle, nor probably for the next few cycles. My personal canary here would be a Democrat winning a state office and the Super majorities broken in both the Senate and the House. I do think that an effective DoJ would bring Florida back to a better equilibrium and the timeline much sooner than Texas.

[GulfCoast66]

19. Don't disagree at all. Except gerrymandering in 2020

It will definitely affect state and congressional races. But not the president which is a statewide race.

Voter suppression, another story all together.

[Rstrstx]

8. I agree, replace FL with AZ

Arizona is trending bluer while Florida seems to kind of drift back and forth and has an awful lot of old people (= Trump voters). AZ is also a much cheaper state to flip and has a very winnable Senate seat as a bonus. It would also provide a fallback in the unlikely event WI or MI sticks with Trump.

Georgia will be a little bit harder because it's not trending purple as quickly as Arizona and there are more efficient voter suppression tactics in place there. But the payoff of two potential Senate seats makes it worth a shot. Win the AZ Senate seat, one GA seat, and the CO and ME seats and the Senate could fall out of Republican hands if Trump loses (I'm assuming AL will go back to the R column unless Moore happens again).

[pstokely]

10. isn't AZ full of white geezers just like FL?

or are there more younger voters in AZ than FL? or less old cuban exiles in AZ?

[JonLP24]

11. Yes Arizona is a top place behind Florida for retired boomers

Part of the reason why I think Arpaio was able to hold on to power despite no one liking him. I never came across anyone including Republicans who likes Arpaio.

[Rstrstx]

20. The median age in FL is 5th highest in the nation, AZ ranks 35th

So yeah, there are more old people in Florida. But I'm basing this on what I saw in 2018, Dems did better in AZ than FL in the most prominent races. AZ is also not engaging in voter suppression the way that FL and GA are, that may have a lot to do with why Sinema won in AZ while Nelson and Gillum lost in FL and I see no reason this will be different in 2020. Losing Nelson in the Senate was especially hard for the Democratic party, it makes retaking the Senate in 2020 that much more difficult.

[former9thward]

23. The median age means nothing.

That is for the entire population -- not the people who vote. AZ has a large Hispanic population which is very young but doesn't vote.

[JonLP24]

24. Sinema votes mostly like a Republican

Arizona still lost the Governor race.

[LeftInTX]

21. AZ only has 11 electoral votes, FL has 29...gotta replace with more than one state!!!

[Rstrstx]

22. Yeah but AZ has a very winnable Senate seat up too

And look at the trendlines, AZ is going bluer like TX while FL waffles back and forth (look at 2018's Senate races). And AZ is relatively cheap, just one big media market and one mid-size market, we'd be crazy not to invest there. Its votes would offset one of the 3 "blue wall" states (Florida could offset 2), though if you changed AZ with PA you could end up with a tied map (269-269) if Trump wins one electoral vote from ME. Then the House would get to elect the President

[struggle4progress]

3. All Eggs. One Basket. Nope. Don't do it.

[DavidDvorkin]

5. No, I think that this time around, the map covers the whole country.

[elocs]

12. In 2016, Clinton didn't campaign once here in WI during the general election campaign.

I bet that doesn't happen again in 2020.

[philf99]

13. Way too early to tell

I can see a lot of States becoming battlegrounds States, especially if you look at where Trumps favorability is under water

[OrlandoDem2]

14. Winning FL is difficult because there are 10-12 media markets and several states within the state.

For a Democrat to win, he/she must cut the loss margin in SWFL and the Panhandle (minus the blue city of Tallahassee) and drive up the Democratic vote in Dade/Broward/Palm Beach. Oh and then the Dem must win the I-4 corridor which is 50/50 but trending Blue (I think).

Rick Scott was successful in doing the opposite and he has a brilliant Twitter campaign reaching out to Hispanics in SoFla and he’s made several trips to Puerto Rico which pleases Puerto Rican’s in Central Florida.

Democrats must get their act together and have a very smart campaign strategy to take this state.

[Buckeyeblue]

15. Rick Scott is the one Republican that really worries me

If Trump were to replace Pence it would be with Rick Scott. But Scott will definitely be a presidential candidate in 2024. So we have to be in position to be ready for him.

[OrlandoDem2]

16. The way to counter that is for the Democrat to talk about the environment.

Save our beaches, save the Everglades, save Lake Okeechobee, stop Miami from sinking.

Save all other talk for other campaigns. Historically, Dems won in FL with strong environmental records which cross party lines, thereby cutting our losses in red areas and appealing to Democrats in blue ones.

[pwb]

18. Could be? Could not be?

.