NOAA 2.00pm update - Holy shit - now 185mph moving at 7mph - still moving West

[malaise]

Last edited Sun Sep 1, 2019, 02:42 PM - Edit history (1)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/145814_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Please note hurricane watches on Florida coast

This is unprecedented


Dorian is still moving West although there is a slight jog to the north as the eye reorganizes itself.

[2naSalit]

1. Yikes!

[OneBlueDotBama]

2. Just under or over 200 MPH

Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance planes penetrated the distinct
eye of Dorian, and found that the hurricane has become extremely
intense with a stadium effect in the eye. The NOAA plane reported a
peak flight-level wind of 159 kt, while the SFMR from both planes
have measured winds between 155 and 170 kt. A dropsonde from the
NOAA plane measured a wind gust of 176 kt at the surface. A blend of
these measurements yield to an initial intensity of 155 kt, making
Dorian the strongest hurricane on record in the northwestern
Bahamas.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/241457.shtml?

[JCMach1]

3. Caution about how well models work on Cat 5

You just don't have the data to plug into models...

[malaise]

4. Good point

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...DORIAN BECOMES THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN MODERN RECORDS FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
...CATASTROPHIC CONDITIONS OCCURING IN THE ABACOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...913 MB...26.96 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida from
north of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.

A Storm Surge Watch has also been issued from north of Deerfield
Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee
=====================
I think this is the strongest hurricane on record in our hemisphere

[muriel_volestrangler]

6. 1980 Hurricane Allen reached maximum sustained speed of 190mph

Generally held as the strongest Atlantic hurricane: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Allen

This might get there, though.

[malaise]

8. This one has gusts of 200mph already

Crazy indeed

[triron]

21. Now gusts at 220. Sustained at 185.

[JCMach1]

13. Allen was in open water...Dorian is entering new territory

If it sustains 5 with this slow movement. I kind of doubt, but who knows with global warming...

[Polybius]

15. Hurricane Patricia did 214

That was just insane.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Patricia

[Baclava]

5. 180 mph, shifting west again, I would not trust their forecast models one bit with a storm this big

Mandatory evacuations in Palm Beach county

200 mph gusts in the Bahamas

[LisaL]

7. There is a cone. It doesn't have to go in the middle of the cone, it can go anywhere in the cone.

So people look at the cone and assumes it will go in the middle, but that is not necessarily true.
So, basically, it could still hit Florida, Carolinas, etc.

[Baclava]

10. Timing is everything when they forecast a 90 degree turn at the last moment

Sometimes these things have a mind of their own, especially the really strong ones

[yaesu]

14. I remember one did a 360, looped around and hit the same areas again. nt

[Eyeball_Kid]

29. The "cone" is an aggregate of computer predictive models. It's not real life. n/t

[NCjack]

9. Oh, my! Imagine how bad it could be if our scientists were correct

and global change is real. Fortunately for us in NC, we don't have to worry about that. The GOP dominated General Assembly of North Carolina squelched warnings of the impacts of global change and pushed the accelerator pedal-to-the-metal on coastal development.

Today, it is getting scary here in NC, as relatives, friends and total strangers are searching for inland shelter. Too bad -- central NC is also over-developed and still growing rapidly. There could be a million people from eastern NC going west for shelter.

But, if Dorian erases our coastal zone, it will not be the fault of the GOP of NC. It will be Pres. Obama's fault for not explaining it to our elite GOP ignorati in simple terms that they can understand.

[malaise]

11. Great post

I wish all the climate change deniers were forced to live on the coast

[bucolic_frolic]

18. Insurance claims impact many Americans

not only those with losses in the storm. Insurance rates rise. The Government pays (well, usually, we'll see what Trump does - limit claims in some new contrivance?). And they rebuild in the same spot for next time. It makes no sense.

[Newest Reality]

26. It might make sense..

If you read up on the mechanics of shock and awe and vulture economics.

What we consider to be disasters and loss is merely an opportunity for the vested interests who can reap windfalls from wind, so to speak. The same applies to economics. Crash got you down? Recession ruining your life? Well, not when you have vast amounts of financial capital to sweep in, get great bargains at pennies on the dollar, and expand your empire by owning more and expanding your holdings and increasing your profits. You win on the way up and are poised to win even more on the downturn.

[dixiegrrrrl]

34. So accurate.

Back in the days when trump was just as NYC asshole, he used to call into radio shows claiming to be "John barron" delivering news about Trump, and/or the markets, hoping to profit off any impact his calls made.
Which is exactly what he is doing now, except the profits affect his global pals.

[yaesu]

12. Very bad for the Islands but being this strong so far out could mean it probably will be

downgraded before it reaches the mainland, seen it happen many times, the eye wall is always reforming and the energy isn't infinite.

[kentuck]

16. it looks so unpredictable

Link to tweet

[Tommy_Carcetti]

17. Actually supports my observations about hurricanes having been through several

Lightning is more common on the outer bands than the inner core, which is mostly rain and wind.

[Rural_Progressive]

20. But the fuel supply is immense

Surface water temps are between 84 and 87 degrees on the east coast of FL. Anything above 80 degrees is like pouring gasoline on a fire. Lots of energy available so that strength may be maintainable although there are so many variables involved that one would be a fool to make any sort of definitive statement concerning this monster.

[jpak]

19. 12:45 PM update max sustained now 185 - landfall Bahamas

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT5+shtml/011644.shtml

<snip>

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL ON ELBOW CAY IN THE
ABACOS...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
satellite data indicate that Dorian has made landfall at 1240 pm
EDT (1640 UTC) in Elbow Cay, Abacos. The winds have increased
to 185 mph (295 km/h) with the minimum central pressure falling to
911 mb (26.90 inches).

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents there should take
immediate shelter. Do not venture into the eye if it passes over
your location.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

<more>

[Uncle Joe]

22. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread malaise.

[highplainsdem]

23. "Holy shit" has been my reaction, too.

Here in the heartland, I'm used to seeing all the damage even 70-80 mph line winds can do, and I've seen firsthand what an EF-4 tornado can do.

This hurricane's sustained winds are in the high EF-4 tornado range, and the gusts are equivalent to an EF-5 tornado, but over a wide area.

[littlemissmartypants]

24. Stay safe, malaise. ❤

[superpatriotman]

25. Kicked

Waiting and worrying in Lauderdale

[RandySF]

27. Ayone is Florida can tell you

...just because it has a blinker on, it doesn't mean it's going to turn.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

30. omg, needed that relief

You made me remember all the times I've seen cars and trucks barrelling down an Interstate with a turn signal on and no place to turn for miles. Overlay that image onto that monster in the Atlantic and it's a little, short-lived comic relief. It's a good reminder that the thing doesn't care about our predictions, models, worries or consequences.

May the people in its path have a quick recovery.

[OneBlueDotBama]

28. I am the greatest hurricane president, EVER!

I have the best hurricanes, the biggest hurricanes....

No one knows as much about hurricanes as Donald J. Trump, NOBODY!

[malaise]

32. Had the same thought

Everything is bigger with this loser

[saidsimplesimon]

31. Have there been any

reports of damage, flooding or high winds on the islands?

Stay safe, Dorian's path remains uncertain and it is so slow moving I limit my "official updates" to morning and evening news. If I were living within the cone, it would consume my waking hours and keep me up at night.

[malaise]

33. Massive damage on Marsh Harbour

and Abacos islands - roofs off, storm surge etc

[jpak]

35. Partial 4:00 PM advisory

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

4:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.6°N 77.3°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 910 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph