Yes, Dan McCready lost...but that isnt the whole story

[angrychair]

Last edited Wed Sep 11, 2019, 02:56 AM - Edit history (4)

Edit:
But McCready over-preformed in a very red district. Trump visited and the gop spent $5.4 million in a district that should have been a cakewalk in a special election


So far, yes he is!

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/09/10/us/elections/results-north-carolina-house-district-9-special-election.html

Edit 10pm ET: only Mecklenburg outstanding. It would appear to me, math wise, that McCready will pull ahead by at least 2,000 votes

Edit as of 9:23ET: with almost all the vote out of Union counted it looks like it will come down to Mecklenburg which has been a democratic stronghold with clinton winning the county by 30 pts

[elleng]

1. Thanks

[EarlG]

2. FiveThirtyEight says...

"One crucial area to watch will be the part of Mecklenburg County that overlaps with the 9th District — a wealthy, predominantly white wedge of metro Charlotte that has rapidly transitioned from red to blue in the Trump era. McCready won it by 10 points in the original 2018 election, and based on last year’s voting patterns, anything more than that will put him on pace to win districtwide."

"On the other hand, next-door Union County — home to some farther-flung Charlotte suburbs like Indian Trail and Monroe — is still the district’s richest source of Republican votes. If Bishop wins it by more than Harris’s 20-point margin, it will be a good sign for the GOP."

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-north-carolina-9th-is-holding-a-do-over-election-heres-how-to-watch-it-like-a-pro/

Bishop is up in Union by just under 20 points with 73% reporting.

McCready is up by 20 in Mecklenburg but only 2% is reporting there so far, so you can ignore that for now.

Edit: with 14% reporting, McCready is still up by 20 in Mecklenburg. Still very early though.

Edit again: Bishop is still below +20 in Union with 81% reporting.

Edit again: McCready still up by just under 20 in Mecklenburg with 28% reporting.

[mcar]

5. Thanks for this

I just went on to the NYT site to follow the results.

[cynatnite]

3. I got a WaPo alert in my email that called it for Murphy. n/t

[EarlG]

6. I think that's the 3rd district

Which was already +24 Republican, Murphy's winning by at least 20 with a majority of precincts reporting.

The big race is in the 9th district.

[cynatnite]

7. Got it. Thanks. n/t

[proud patriot]

4. looking close also looking positive

IMO

[NCLefty]

8. Down 500 right now.. 55% in.

[EarlG]

10. Bishop is going to run out of voters soon -- almost all of Union County is in

He is still lagging slightly behind Harris's totals there, which is good news.

[proud patriot]

11. and the early voting count

looked like the #s were up 1 or more points pretty consistently

[a kennedy]

12. and nope he's now behind.......

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/09/10/us/elections/results-north-carolina-house-district-9-special-election.html

[Takket]

13. bishop is about out of votes in Union county......

and only 28% of mecklenberg counted. this looks doable.

[unc70]

14. Modest net plurality for McCready in other 3 counties

Bladen should be more than offset by the other two. Those should almost balance additional Bishop votes from Union. Brings it down to that corner of Mecklenburg.

[octoberlib]

15. This district's been red since the 1960's. It shouldn't even be this close.

Chuck Todd said who wins this race will be a bellwether for Trump but the fact that it's so close is already a bellwether , in my opinion.

[angrychair]

16. Agreed. nt

[LenaBaby61]

17. Looks like McCready ...

Will come up just a bit short.

Looks like he won't have enough same day voters coming out to vote for him.

[octoberlib]

18. Kornacki said Bishop's ahead because he

over performed in rural districts. That typically means older, white people. Racism’s a hell of a drug.

[Polybius]

19. It's been called

Bishop won.

[angrychair]

20. Yes, unfortunately

But McCready over-preformed in a very red district. Trump visited and the gop spent $5.4 million in a district that should have been a cakewalk

[diva77]

21. McCready shouldn't concede!!!

Is there automatic recount rule in NC when outcomes are so close?

[Joe941]

22. +1

[Polybius]

23. It's not nearly close enough for that to happen

Bishop won by a full 2 points.