It feels like the 2020 election will be a rerun of the 2008 election.

[DetlefK]

John McCain was the republican candidate. He was a very close friend of President George W. Bush, whose time had been marred by two unpopular wars, several brazen lies, a torture-scandal and one of the biggest financial catastrophes ever. In fact, John McCain and GWB were so similar, that a McCain-presidency was already being talked about as a third term for GWB.

At the beginning of the campaign-season, the dominant topic was national security, and McCain and Obama were neck-and-neck. However, halfway through the campaign-season the 2008 financial crisis happened and the dominant topic all of a sudden was the economy.

While McCain had a strong credibility on national security, all of that suddenly no longer counted. All of a sudden the voters wanted someone who could fix the economic mess GWB had created. Nobody gave a shit about McCain's national security credentials anymore.

The theme of the 2008 election was "Anyone but McCain/Bush."

Obama was a well-spoken, intelligent fresh face. He was the fresh start the people wanted.





Trump has become toxic. The whole republican party has given itself over to purity-tests how competing opinions are no longer allowed. All hail Trump! Republican lawmakers have complained that being associated with Trump's GOP is dragging them down in the polls.

Traditional republican election-topics are suddenly no longer available:
* Economy? The economy is weak. Not in a recession (yet), but weak.
* Fiscal discipline? The national deficit is higher than ever. The Trump-administration is spending like there's no tomorrow.
* National security? Trump is associated with several scandals and people endangering national security.
* Law and order? Hate-crimes are through the roof.




So, whom will people vote for? Trump? Or anyone but Trump, so long as it's a fresh face?

[tman]

1. I think it will be alot closer.

The quicker we wise up to this reality, the better the outcome.

[kimbutgar]

2. Democrats always give repuke President's good economies and then repukes mess it up

It took Bush 8 years and MF45 just 4.

The only thing I worry about is the media again stumping for MF45 even though he is threatening their existence as a first amendment right.

We also need to put Facebook on notice that they can’t be partial to MF45 and allow fake propaganda shit on there otherwise we should call for a nationwide boycott of Facebook in 2020 by all Democrats. Give Twitter the business.

[maddiemom]

25. A bit less than THREE years actually, but it hasn't shown just yet.

[roamer65]

3. Mmmmm...I don't share your optimism.

...but I hope it isn’t what I’m thinking it it will be...

[maryellen99]

21. Let me guess 1972 or 1984?

[roamer65]

23. The last election as a unified republic.

That is the stakes of this one.

[maryellen99]

24. Yep nt

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Disagree - it'll be a mix of 2012 and 2004.

Shaky incumbents fighting back economic concerns but not downright recession-level struggles that doomed guys like Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush in their quest for reelection.

Trump is not as well positioned as Bush was in 2004 or Obama in 2012, but he doesn't have to be to win.

The fact is, Trump's popularity is just strong enough in a slew of states that his pathway to 270 is definitely achievable.

In 2008, not only did you have eight years of GOP control, along with a very unpopular president, you also had the beginnings of the worst recession in US history. That really made it impossible for the GOP to win in 2008. Add the fact Obama was a one-in-a-lifetime candidate and 2008 was a blowout.

[Cosmocat]

7. One other point

You have the dynamics set better - though ytd how the general economy will look or of some other factor comes into play.

But, republicans were meh on McCain ... republicans L O V E this POS.

Just as we are going to walk over broken glass and swim through a pit of acid to vote for our candidate, they will do likewise for 45.

That counts for something.

The X factor is going to be if the soft headed "middle."

WTF knows if they will get how series this all is.

2016 broke his way because of dumb asses sitting it out or voting Stein, or one of the other fringe candidates.

[LiberalLovinLug]

5. I honestly don't know how it will go. Nothing will surprise me.

I can see Trump winning again. If Republican voters can be convinced that Trump is being unfairly attacked and investigated, plus election fraud by the GOP, plus if there were even one potential scandal by a Democrat. Or some dirt they scrounged up after months, years, of trying to bribe other countries intelligence services. Fox and the right are experts at inflating any small indiscretion into a years long major criminal scandal.

Or, I can also see, just as many Trump voters did not reply honestly to polls about voting for Trump, this time I can see many who may respond to their pro-Trump neighbours, or a poll, as voting for him again, just staying home and not voting. And any Democrat running, no matter who it is, will win in a landslide.

[dustyscamp]

6. I hate this reality

[DetlefK]

8. This is truly the darkest timeline.

[smirkymonkey]

9. We still outnumber them.

We just need to GOTV. That is all that matters. The only way they can win is if they cheat. Again. And that is my biggest fear.

[Garrett78]

12. Without fraud, nobody with Trump's numbers can win, even with the electoral college in place.

His "strongly approve" number is in the 20s and his "strongly disapprove" number is almost twice as high. His net approval rating is (deeply) negative in virtually every battleground state.

It takes a lot of foreign interference and voter suppression to make a Trump re-election even remotely possible.

And consider all of the factors in his favor in 2016. His opponent was a polarizing figure who had, sadly, been under relentless attack for 25 years (a quarter of a century!). There was the last minute Comey announcement. Trump had the newness factor going for him, meaning Trump fatigue was not yet a reality and the media was more enamored with him. He was a massive underdog, so there were undoubtedly a lot of ignorant and overconfident people who basically said, "I'll give him a shot; he can't win anyway." Or, "I'll just stay home, because I know Clinton will win and I don't really like either candidate." All of that is why, if not for the prospect of election fraud, I'd be extremely confident in a landslide (where we take MI, PA, WI, FL, NC, GA, AZ, etc.).

But it all comes down to the bolded sentence above.

[smirkymonkey]

13. I absolutely believe that.

Yet that is what worries me. What are we going to do to stop it?

[ooky]

10. Interesting thing about the soaring deficit

I almost never hear that being talked about.

[Polybius]

11. McCain was not a "very close friend of President George W. Bush"

The two couldn't stand each other after that bitter 2000 Republican Primary. Although they somewhat made up, they never were tight after.

[Buckeyeblue]

19. Yes. They weren't close at all.

And I don't remember anyone saying that McCain would essentially be a third Bush term

[DavidDvorkin]

14. I'm hoping for 1932.

[NewJeffCT]

16. Ditto

that would be nice, but hopefully no Great Depression - Just the Great Trump (psychological) Depression to recover from

[DavidDvorkin]

18. Right

Without the preceding disaster.

Or a subsequent world war, for that matter.

[NewJeffCT]

15. Most people don't care about the deficit

and, as long as the media is reporting that the economy is great, most people will buy it - Unemployment is low and the stock market is high and that's what most people pay attention to on a regular basis. Trump and his surrogates do WAY better at touting the economy than Obama did in 2010, 2012 and 2014.

heck, the media is reporting 128,000 jobs created last month as a good number. I looked back for a similar number under Obama and found 136,000 jobs created in March of 2013 and filtered google for April 2013 news reports on jobs and got reports like "disappointing" and "recovery stalled" and another on the high youth unemployment rate.

(though, the market likely would be higher if Clinton was president, but nobody can really make that argument...)

[not_the_one]

17. It will all be in the "rigging"...

Trump has already stated that he could lose by even more than with Clinton, and he would still be able to take the EC.

So how may millions of votes are we expected to ignore, when the EC still comes down in favor of the turd?

10 million? 20 million? And we are supposed to docilely accept it?

The Russians have taken the goalpost when it comes to rigging elections. They know how, and they will do it. They didn't hack into every state's election system and data base, just for giggles.

Meanwhile, we all tsk, tsk, tsk, and say that it is impossible. If you will remember, the first report said just two states MAY have been hacked...

There MUST be actual paper ballots in every district in the nation to back up whatever tally is arrived at. And we MUST be willing to do the hard work to compare the two.

And the democratic party MUST start thinking and acting long term. THAT is how the republicans have taken over state legislatures and gerrymandered districts, with the culmination of the United States of American having a FLOATING TURD sitting in the PEOPLES' white house.

If we aren't willing to do the the hard work, we deserve what we get.

(For clarification, turds are either floaters or sinkers. Turds of substance sink. Fluffed turds, full of air, float. Trump can't even succeed at the turd level.)

[EricaGriswoldAuthor]

20. yeah...but

the treatment of democrats feels like they've been playing the Jeremiah Wright video incessantly for the last 4 years.

[Mr.Bill]

22. The difference is Trump has a base that will believe it

when he blames the crash on somebody else. The stock market could crash tomorrow and if Trump blamed Mickey Mantle they would believe him.

[Mike 03]

26. But are Trump voters really issue voters? I have my doubts.

Time after time they insist the are with this president no matter what, regardless of how he's damaged the economy, the environment, etc... Some of the things his voters "get" from him aren't that quantifiable: it's the "feeling" they get from having him as president. It's the (false) security, it's the reassurance to White people he'll put them first, it's the extreme judges. Most Trump voters I doubt even follow economic developments, markets, or have any clue what he's done to make their lives worse (air and water regulation rollbacks). It's an existential support that is detached from day-to-day realities and based largely on rhetoric and how much he hates Democrats. Trumpers love him because we hate him and he hates us.

EDIT: Think of some sports team that is HATED by most Americans, and how that only reinforces the devotion of its fans. The more the team is hated, the more vocal and extreme the support of the fans for the team.