Frightening interview: Mark Halperin hawking his book today on

[ReformedGOPer]

the Michael Smerconish show on POTUS channel. He was the guy who left MSNBC after being accused of sexual harassment. Listening to him today was frightening. He talked about the win in Kentucky but said it didn't really matter all that much in the 2020 election.

He said that the reelection of tRump would come down to 3-4 states (PA, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan) . A recent poll showed tRump was within the margin of error in winning all 4 of the states. And the people in those states aren't all that interested in the impeachment (I'd have to differ with that assessment). Halperin said that unless those states reject tRump, he'd win again b/c of the electoral college.

It really doesn't matter if reliably blue states (California, NJ etc) or reliably red states (Kentucky, Mississippi, etc)double their voters for their respective nominees. It's those 4 states that need to vote blue.

Smerconish mentioned he had an uber driver tell him last week that tRump was sent by God. Halperin reiterated that the populations of those 4 states need to hear more about their issues. And he said if they hear that Dems are going to take away their private health insurance, tRump gets re-elected.

I live in central PA and I agree impeachment isn't really mentioned around here.

Any thoughts?

[rzemanfl]

1. Yes, I think I have to wash socks. n/t

[rzemanfl]

32. Sounds like a plan. n/t

[dawg day]

2. Halperin is trying to be 'relevant'-

And the only way to be 'relevant' when you're a sexual harasser moderate hack (what a combo) is to avoid criticizing Trump and the Republicans and pretend that a bunch of white non-rich men (rather than white rich men-- the GOP) will make all the difference and must be placated.

Of course a sexual harasser thinks that the irrationality of white men should be coddled and given control-- because that coddling was what let him and his type (and Trump) harass women for decades.

He doesn't matter. He wants to matter. He wants his sexual harassment and his disgrace NOT to matter, but he can't really deal with the fact that white men will matter less than ever in 2020.

[lagomorph777]

27. Same for Smerconish. I can't stand him.

[BeyondGeography]

3. Anyone else not miss Halperin these last few years?

You know, the guy who called President Obama a d*ck.

[moonscape]

11. Me me me me ... n/t

[True Blue American]

28. I was glad to be rid of Halperin.

He always came across as a smarmy little man. I was not surprised.

[Moostache]

29. That is the FIRST and LAST thing I remember about him...

He is an abysmal little piss ant and not worth any further consideration.

[patricia92243]

4. How can we get rid of the electorial college? That is the problem. The will

of the people is not being done.

[BannonsLiver]

8. It's actually pretty straightforward

We’ll need a constitutional
Convention and 2/3 of each state legislature must vote to abolish it. Should be a piece of cake.

[struggle4progress]

15. We certainly do not need a constitutional; convention

We need Congress to propose the amendment by two-thirds majority vote in each house, followed by ratification by three-fourths of the states

[brooklynite]

17. Actually it's 3/4...round up

[klook]

5. Cool story, bro. (nt)

[brooklynite]

6. Nothing factually wrong in his analysis...

If we pick up PA, MI and WI we win. If not, we lose. More voter turnout in NY and CA doesn’t help.

[ReformedGOPer]

12. Yes, you explained it better than I.

[karynnj]

18. I agree, but think the media has made too much of the NYT/SIENA set of polls

If you look at the sets of state level polls on real clear politics, it is clear they are outliers. Maybe they are the first of many that show Trump doing that well, but until then they are outliers. Another point is that they are likely voters. This means that beyond statistical sampling, they employed a heuristic model to adjust for their likelihood of voting.

I listened to the daily podcast that explained what they did. One comment they had was that polling in 2016 underweighted non college educated white voters. They spoke of correcting for that. I wonder if in doing that, they may now be overnighting them. They might also be underweighting POC and young people due to turnout in 2016. In addition, I was shocked how much worse the response rate was compared to a decade or two ago when there were articles raising concern then that as response rate fell, the assumption that those answering in a given cell were similar to those not answering.

So, two things
1 forecasting election results is more an art than a science. It is not a simple exercise in statistical sampling.
2. The media is very quick to call a poll with all the Democrats way ahead an outlier, but I have not heard it much on this set.

The overriding thing is that until the last vote is cast, we all need to work as though we are in danger of losing, knowing what is at stake.

[regnaD kciN]

30. Can't say for sure that they're outliers, but...

...I admit to being curious about results, in states in which other polls have shown Trump to be underwater, and ones where other polls have revealed that 46% of voters say they won’t vote for Trump under any circumstances, that show the most favorable matchup for Democrats is only 1-%-2%, with most tied or trailing. There’s a definite disconnect there.

[karynnj]

34. As I said, we may find that other polls are in the same range

At this point, looking at all polls that real clear politics, a right leaning site, has for these states, they are outliers. However, there are not a large number of polls. If future polls are all like the other polls rather than this set, they will be outliers.

However, given every state has the same pattern of being significantly worse, it is entirely likely that this is not due to simultaneously getting statistical outliers due to the nature of sampling. The cause is likely the model they created to determine likelihood to vote. I would bet that the reason they are different than the others is their assumptions on that.

From their perspective, they are correcting what they see as errors in their 2016 model. This is not something that sampling theory, statistics or any mathematical modelling can say is more or less accurate than other models. I suspect that if their new model had been used to predict 2018, they would have under forecast the Democrats.

[imanamerican63]

7. But that is where we go to work and flip other states, like Texas, Missouri, etc!

It time to fight and not given any wiggle room! Put American First, Not Trump!

[GulfCoast66]

23. We will carry Florida long before Texas or Missouri.

We voted for Obama twice. We get out our vote like Virginia just did we win here.

[iamateacher]

9. I live in Southeastern Pa.

Worked the Democratic table yesterday at election. Impeachment is mentioned often and dislike of Trump motivated historic results for us yesterday.

[BumRushDaShow]

14. THIS...

Three Philadelphia rim counties all around SE PA just had Democrats take over County governance - one, for the first time in decades, the 2nd, for the first time in over a century and a half, and the 3rd, for the first time ever.

PA won't be fooled again.

[ReformedGOPer]

19. Southeast PA, is outside of Philly. Philly and Pittsburgh are reliably blue.

Unfortunately, I'm in the county that actually tipped PA to tRump. But we voted for Obama in 2008 and 2016. We haven't voted red since 1988. I woke up this morning feeling great about Kentucky and Virginia. Then I heard the interview. I'm a little nervous, I admit.

[iamateacher]

25. A lot of people in my area did not vote in 2016

Boy, are they voting now! Turnout was huge! Enthusiasm very high.
Used to be my friend and myself at the table. Loads of people volunteering now, voters thanking us for volunteering, just a great day. Same last year also.

[BannonsLiver]

10. Sure, I have a few thoughts

1. Fuck Michael Smerconish for allowing this lowlife predator a platform.

2. Halperin isn’t objective about Dump because he loves Dump.

3. Halperin more than pulled his weight in debasing our politics and reducing it to a perpetual horse race narrative that will eventually play a role in the destruction of our democracy.

4. If Halperin has any honor and integrity he would live in hiding for the rest of his life or commit ritual seppuku and leave us all the fuck alone.

[eleny]

16. Lol! But I do appreciate his hammering home what states Dems need to concentrate on for 2020

Reminders are always welcome.

Btw, I love your nickname here at DU. It cracks me up each time I see one of your posts.

[ReformedGOPer]

20. +1000

[Submariner]

13. Halperin must be due to appear with Mika Mouse and Joe Scab

I'm wondering if it's Joe or if it's NBC keeping Halperin off Mornin' Joe.

[OnDoutside]

22. I hated Halperin from the first time he was shilling for Trump back in 2015. Sexual abusers have so

much in common.

In any case, I've seen enough reputable discussions that suggest Ohio may not be relevant at all. Ignore the asshole.

[Garrett78]

24. Are we talking about hypothetical matchup polls? They're historically misleading. Ask Pres. Dukakis.

Trump's "strongly approve" number is in the 20s and his "strongly disapprove" number is nearly twice as high. He has a deeply negative net approval rating in virtually every swing state. It'll take substantial election fraud (voter suppression, foreign interference, etc.) in order for Trump to win, even with the electoral college in place.

The problem is that election fraud is a given, so it's a question of how extensive/effective it is.

We just need to focus on boosting turnout among POC, youth and white suburban women. It's all about having higher turnout than we had in 2016.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

31. Why do we care about what that guy thinks?

As political analysts go, he has shown himself to be kind of an idiot.

[obamanut2012]

33. *yawn*