General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsUK Election: Labour facing worst election result since 1983
The worst election in the postwar period for either of the UKs major parties was the 1997 General election for the Tories down to 165 seats, the Tories lost 178 seats from the notional, post-redistribution numbers and the final results the next day, falling to 165 seats. It would take them 13 years, 2 more losing elections, an economic meltdown, and a coalition agreement to get off the opposition benches. Going back to that period, there was a lot of crap spewed by Conservative politicians who knew the danger that was coming and didnt have any way of stopping it. They clearly knew they were speaking crap, but they had to say it the performative art of not conceding youve lost, so as to try and leave things as easy as can be for the new leader. That is what Labour are doing right now.
They are staring at their 1983 result again, except without Scotland a result which would have meant around 160 seats back then. Without Scotland, which new polling is showing to be gone with Edinburgh South probably gone, even and the Tories on the march across most of the North, and the Lib Dems and Labour splitting most of the Remain vote across the south, the Labour Party is walking into a decade further in opposition. The thing is, we know they know this. Two stories this week prove they know the disaster is coming.
For Tom Watson deputy leader of the party, Brown-ite plotter, and generally seen as the head of the Corbyn-sceptic movement, such as it is to not re-contest his West Bromwich East constituency was not about renewal or spending time with family or any other reason people may admit it was about the fact that Watsons no fool and he was in trouble in a lot of in, in fact back home. He was down 6% per the LeanTossup model, with a good chance that the mini-revival in the Midlands seen up to that model run might have been
overly optimistic for him, as opposed to a true statistical signal. Watson wouldnt have left if he thought he was home and dry in West Bromwich, and the fact that he left shows the way that Labours political class the people who see the internal polling, who get the strategy updates, who hear from candidates feels about this race.
The second story is the leak about the Labour Party having co-leaders a male/female, Leave/Remain, City/town combo split leadership in some theres more that unites us than divides us fantasyland nonsense thought up by some very clever (read: morons) came up with as a solution to the problem that well off Remainers who you need to vote for you in the south and leavers in industrial areas of the North dont actually agree with each other. But beyond that, why is that story leaking now? Theres an election, and everyone in Labour is behind Saint Jeremy, nest pas? Nobody would ever be on maneuvers for the leadership, since there wont be a vacancy when Jeremy wins? Oh, sorry, I slipped into fantasyland. Theres obviously going to be a vacancy, because Corbyn is very clearly going to lose, and everybody knows this.
https://leantossup.ca/labour-knows-their-fate/
ritapria
(1,812 posts)They ended up trailing the Conservatives by just 2% ...