How the heck is public support for impeachment going DOWN??

[budkin]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/impeachment-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

This is the lowest it's been since the Democrats first announced they were opening an impeachment inquiry. I DON'T understand how the heck it could be going DOWN since the public hearings started, even among Democrats. My only hope is there is no poll yet that accounts for Sondland's testimony. Anyone have any ideas?

[mucifer]

1. OMG I think I'm gonna cry

[evertonfc]

2. attention spans

and the majority of people are simply not following as much as we are. There is risk to us if this is a long, drawn out process.

[Amishman]

18. Plus news fatigue

Low/no information voters don't want the details, and are probably annoyed by the continued attention.

Sometimes I feel we deserve our broken dysfunctional government as punishment

[a kennedy]

24. this exactly.....

[marble falls]

3. I think those numbers will be changing now. Watergate numbers at this point of the process had to be

about the same as this.

[PatSeg]

4. I wouldn't pay any attention to polls

It will only upset you and can't possibly be a valid representation of public opinion right now. I haven't taken a poll in years and no one I know has either.

[RKP5637]

10. K&R!!! I don't know how they find the participants in these pools, but I have

never been contacted to participate in a poll like this, other than those I randomly see on websites.

[PatSeg]

40. Same here

They could be calling me, but I don't answer the phone if I don't recognize the number.

[smirkymonkey]

45. I think most people with cell phones don't answer their phones when contacted if

they don't recognize the number. Whereas most older, conservative people with landlines pick up the phone no matter what. I never pick up my phone unless I know who is calling me. I have never, ever been polled.

I am not buying the results that these bullshit polls are selling. I think the data skews heavily toward the right for a number of reasons.

[PatSeg]

47. I don't answer my cell phone or my landline

if I don't recognize the number and haven't for years. We have a landline because we get poor cell phone reception in the house, but I let calls I don't recognize go to voicemail. As I said in another comment, I am older (obviously not conservative though) and as such, I know a lot of older people. None of us picks up the phone if we don't recognize the caller.

Yes, I think they tend to skew to the right. I do remember in the past doing periodic online polls, but I haven't done one in a long time. I just can't take these polls seriously.

[Bettie]

33. Remember: polls are largely done by phone

how many people do you know who answer their phones if they don't know who is on the other end? Or even if they do?

[PatSeg]

39. I never do

and don't know anyone who does. Who on earth are they polling?

[Bettie]

43. Older people with an

authoritarian mindset, generally speaking, I'd guess. Authoritarian because they still recognize the "phone rings, I answer" social contract.

[PatSeg]

46. I can sort of understand that,

but I'm "older people" and I know a lot of older people, none of us answers the phone if we don't know the person who is calling. The few who do, would be a very small sampling of the population. Just imagine how many people they have to call before someone picks up.

[Bettie]

48. The older people you know are probably not particularly

authoritarian.

That's the big one, so ingrained on doing what they are "supposed" to do that they answer the phone every time.

[PatSeg]

49. That is true

[Imperialism Inc.]

70. Caution though.

Lots of people said that in 2016 as well. Even though the polls were mostly decent for Clinton, many were convinced the reality was even better for the same reasons you cite. Turned out to be the exact opposite and polls were slightly over-estimating support for Clinton.

[Bettie]

73. I don't believe any polls anymore

I see them as valuable for showing trends, but not accurate numbers at this point.

[Spider Jerusalem]

5. Three words: margin of error

[CincyDem]

6. Because great swaths of this country fall into the "SQUIRREL !!!" trap.

And the republicans - are screaming SQUIRREL at every turn. I know there are people saying it was clearer before all these hearings. Their strategy is, to some degree, working.

As has been said, nobody every lost a dime betting against the intelligence of the American population. Sad, but likely true for large swaths of the country.

[lunatica]

7. At this point in time it can't really go up or down

Don’t believe the knee jerk polls taken 5 minutes after someone speaks or during the proceedings. Opinions don’t get formed nor do they change this quickly. In most cases time is required.

These instant polls are hogwash.

[ReformedGOPer]

71. I agree.

[centrarchus]

8. The drop is among independents. I hate that. nt

[marlakay]

9. Most regular people only think about

What is happening in America. These hearings that I find fascinating, like a spy novel are boring to those that care only for themselves, their friends and family and maybe something happening in their job, city or state.

Since they began I have briefly mentioned watching them to grocery store clerks, hair dresser, nurse at doctors office and all just said yuck I wouldn’t watch that.

I only have 2 friends on FB posting about it, one is into politics like me and one is a retired liberal school principal and very educated.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

27. I agree. I honestly don't understand why they have to be so long

So much is repetitive. But moreover it's confusing. Lots of dates lots of strange names. Only the avid ones like us will make the effort to follow. It is not being conducted like a story that low info's can follow.

Got flamed royally for saying this the other day. If our goal is to build consensus ?? Is it working
A responsible thing to ask.

[NewJeffCT]

11. Fox News and Republicans seem united

In 2016, 2017 and early into 2018, there would occasionally be Republicans that would shake their heads, express concerns or meekly say that Trump didn't use the best words. Sadly, Republicans have lost what little spine they had and now all mindlessly toe the Trump Line.

[stevil]

12. Look underneath the graph....

There are three clickable options. Link displays an aggregate as default. The second option is whether to begin the impeachment process (unchanged). The third is asking whether the president should be impeached (going down). We're still in early stages folks.

[yellowdogintexas]

20. actually I suspect gangs of MAGA people

are on their TVs clicking that third one in whatever way the question will reduce the numbers

[Vinca]

13. My husband and I and all of you here are the only people I know following this closely.

People just don't pay attention until something affects them personally. It's really too bad. The country is rapidly skewing away from a democracy into a quasi-dictatorship. If Trump wins a second term, that's the ball game. He'll be followed by Ivanka or Junior and the family funnel from U.S. Treasury into their bank accounts will be complete.

[maxsolomon]

25. My SIL this morning: "I'm sick of the whole thing".

She wants to launch Trump into outer space, but can't stand the process.

The GOP's strategy of dragging everything and everyone into the mud ALWAYS WORKS with "independent" low-info voters. They get turned off and revert to Both-Sidesism.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

29. I think we waited way too long to impeach. People

Lost interest and became more and more desensitized to trump attrocities.

[maxsolomon]

32. Yes and No.

Last edited Thu Nov 21, 2019, 08:57 PM - Edit history (1)

This is a much easier sell than the Campaign and Rusher.

It's a moot point, regardless. The Senate will set him free in short order, and we'll have to listen to how he was "found innocent" until the day he dies.

[budkin]

41. Totally

And TRUMP EXONERATED headlines until election day

[beachbumbob]

14. Not worth the attention at thus moment

[Liberal In Texas]

15. Differing from Watergate in that then you almost coulldn't go anyplace without the hearing being on.

Stores and restaurants and bars. In the days of 3 commercial networks and PBS. Now with cable and hundreds of different channels you have to make some effort if you want to see it.

For example, yesterday I was at a car dealership for scheduled maintenance and in the two areas you could wait in one TV had the local Fox station running syndicated talk shows and the other Home and Garden something or the other.

Many people are only getting this from snippets on the news. And the repubs are spinning a lot of lies and propaganda the the news these days feel obligated to dutifully report.

[TheRealNorth]

16. Most people Don't listen to the whole thing

They only get bits and pieces and then get a summary from whatever information source they get information from.

And you can bet the Republicans and independents are getting targeted on social media.

[Garrett78]

17. Most people don't listen to any of it. And millions don't even know these hearings are taking place.

[Downtown Hound]

19. Look pretty stable to me

It's going to fluctuate a little bit. That's the nature of polls.

[Kingofalldems]

21. Nope.

[Talitha]

22. Polls - bah!!! No one has EVER asked me to be in a poll.

A tiny slice of public opinon means absolutely nothing to me.

[Brainfodder]

23. My household is 100% for impeachment, no change.

Well OK 111% up from 110%, happy now?

[empedocles]

26. There tends to be ebbs and flows; in tides, human affairs, stock market fluctuations,

approval ratings, etc., etc.

[Miles Archer]

28. Fox News, for starters

My sister gets 100% of her "news" from Fox, and she's not alone.

I'm sure the "he did something bad, but it's not impeachable" meme has been pounded into a fine powder, easily snorted by Fox addicts. I couldn't tell you for sure...I never watch Fox, not even clips on Twitter or Facebook.

As we have assumed all along, it will probably pass a party line House vote...I would NOT expect any Republicans to vote in favor, and then it's off to the Senate, where McConnell and his loyal crew will squash it.

[Joe941]

51. And rush Limbaugh

[0rganism]

30. the polls are correct, imho. the GOP strategy seems to be working.

many here are confusing the content of the house members' ludicrous remarks with their actual strategy. that has not been the case from the start. they all know what he's done is utterly indefensible on a factual basis.

their strategy:
show up and make the proceedings as ugly and distasteful as possible. when they do that, it reflects poorly on all involved, not just them. look back at all the impeachment-following threads and look at how many DUers reached for the mute button as soon as the GOP questions began. the difference between this and what the non-politically-interested folk of the country did is this: they never turned the sound back on.

try it sometime, news channels work really well for this. turn off the sound, and just watch how the footage, the bobbleheads, and the chyrons set the tone. this is the key. many who are exposed to the hearings (or any news, really) will see it without clear audio (in bars, breakrooms, etc.). under these circumstances, appearances rule the day.

the point of all the signs behind the GOP reps? inserting talking points is only a side benefit. the primary usefulness lies in how ugly it makes the room look. those signs were ugly and half-assed by design.

the GOP got people to tune out and regard impeachment proceedings as ugly and divisive and partisan, simply by acting ugly and divisive and partisan themselves.

sorry, GOP wins this round. and they'll probably win the next round when articles go to the floor for a vote. and they'll win however many rounds there are in the senate, too. and if Democrats don't get our shit together and figure out how to present a media image which can overcome GOP ugliness and engage the public, Trump's getting a second term.

[John Fante]

52. Cool story, bro.

Not gonna drop the impeachment, sorry.

[AncientGeezer]

74. Likely an accurate reading of it.

Nobody said drop Impeachment....certainly not 0rganism.
It will die in the Senate....I do disagree with 0rganism though that dumpster gets a 2nd term...I suspect he gets beat like a rented mule...but that's how he's removed.

[Bonx]

31. Everything i read at CNN, Rawstory, The Nation etc. looks like impeachment is well supported

[Buns_of_Fire]

34. Perhaps they're shifting their preference to drawing and quartering. nt

[rzemanfl]

53. I'm more of a boiled in oil or broken on a wheel kind of a guy myself.

It's a matter of personal preference.

[MontanaMama]

79. I support this.

Surely we could sell tickets to such an event?

[marlakay]

35. Just got back from errands

Group of people about 30 or so were holding impeachment signs and chanting as cars drove by in downtown Medford OR.

What’s cool about that is I live in one of the conservative towns in Oregon. Takes more guts to protest liberally here.

[doc03]

36. I don't know of anyone that has been watching it. Myself I watch MSNBC in the evening for the

highlights. The comments I have heard is it's a circus, it's a joke, Democrats trying to undo the election and this morning I heard Democrats know they can't win next year. Even for me they are unwatchable, I can't stand to listen to Nunes or Jordan for 45 minutes, I would smash the TV. There is really no point in watching because no matter what happens the Republicans in the Senate won't remove him. Neither side will change their mind and the so called independents don't much care. That's why they are independent they
are too damn stupid to take a side.

[budkin]

38. Pretty much how I feel about "independents" these days

"too damn stupid to take a side"

[Progressive Jones]

37. Cooked books. nt

[XRubicon]

42. Yes - we should keep the constitution only if it is polling well

Yeah... that's it. Something something republic.

[Tennessee Hillbilly]

44. Don't overlook ...

Don't overlook the recent elections. The public has been seeing a lot of impeachment-related news for at least two months. But it didn't prevent the democrats from doing extremely well in the elections. To me, a vote in an election counts for more than a telephone poll response.

[Joe941]

50. It truly boggles the mind.

[ritapria]

54. A Big chunk of the Population know Trump is corrupt and don't give a damn

The Deplorables , about 30% of the population, share his racist views ….While another 15% think all politicians are corrupt to the core and say to themselves: " Hey my 401 K is going up.. WTF … These hearings are boring as hell " …..

[dustyscamp]

64. Exactly

[Grammy23]

55. This evening on Last word Laurence O'Donnell

ran an ad that is being released by Republicans for Rule of Law. It showed Gordon Sondland testifying saying that, “Yes, there was a Quid Pro Quo.” Then showed a clip of Lindsey Graham saying he would consider impeachment if they could show there was a Quid Pro Quo. It was an effective ad that showed in a minute or so what the hearings took hours to show. I hope they will show this ad in many markets. And get other short but information heavy ads on tv, radio and internet. People will tolerate short ads and they might perhaps penetrate for them to think about. It can’t hurt to try.

[Poiuyt]

57. I agree

This is going to take some effective marketing to persuade the public.

[customerserviceguy]

56. There are three kinds of people in this country

One group was ready on day one of the Trump presidency to impeach him. They're the ones paying the most attention to the impeachment proceedings, since it feeds their predispositions.

Another group doesn't give a damn about impeachment, they think that the end justifies the means, and they're waiting for information that Joe Biden is corrupt for having his son take big bucks from Ukrainian oligarchs in exchange for getting off the hook on corruption charges. If they don't get what they want, they will simply assume that not enough digging was done.

The third group hates politics, and if they bother to vote at all, they wait until the weekend before an election to decide who scares them the least. They go out of their way to avoid political discussions, or even political thoughts, and shoving the impeachment hearings in their face makes them very resentful.

They're the group that is making public support for impeachment to go down, if that polling is correct.

[uponit7771]

58. ? Nov 20 yes is at 50% ... thats up

[budkin]

59. I'm referring to the averages graph at the very top...

It's down to 46.3%. Hoping the next few polls nudge it up once the Sondland testimony permeates...

[DeminPennswoods]

77. Why does anyone put stock in polling averages?

The only polls that reflect current opinion are the latest ones. Polls done months ago are simply not relevent to anything.

[Celerity]

61. November 21, 45.6% support Impeachment, 45.5% do not

you have to pull out the polls that ask about starting the process, as it already has started


We are a long way from this yet, BUT IF the support drops to around 40 to 42% (September 25th it was at 38.2%), Speaker Pelosi is going to have a really hard time getting 40 or so swing/red/pink/purple district Democrats in the House to vote Yes. It only will take around 20 or so saying NO to scupper it. There are around 5 already who will not vote for it, and Gabbard will probably say no as well, which cancels out Amash saying yes.

Hopefully we can drag it over the line.

[Jakes Progress]

60. Sad, but there are a lot of really ignorant people.

I mean a lot.

[NCLefty]

62. I never realized before Trump quite how many dumb Americans there are.

It's really demoralizing.

[nitpicker]

63. Some may think as I do

That directly, impeachment is pointless because the Senate won't convict and remove him.

Indirectly, however, it may make some people so disgusted that they either vote to "throw the rascals out" or stay home.

[Loki Liesmith]

65. One poll. Learn statistics.

[Polybius]

72. Not one, but an average of all major polls

[budkin]

75. Not one poll. Learn to read before being an a-hole.

[tavernier]

66. It hasn't.

You’re being suckered.

[crickets]

68. +1

[MFM008]

67. Believe NO POLLS

None.

[Imperialism Inc.]

69. Could easily just be statistical noise.

Still, at best it has stayed pretty flat. Frankly, it probably didn't help that most of what the witnesses had to say was leaked out during the closed door hearings, via their statements. The means everyone heard it all twice and people have short attention spans.

[doc03]

76. Because of those 45 minute ramblings from Nunes

and Jordan. They have they accused every Democrat since FDR of conspiring against Trump.

[Cicada]

78. People expect leaders to play politics

I think people assume everyone “plays politics.” Trump pressured Ukraine to harm Biden. What’s new? I prefer focusing on obstruction of justice. Trump was being investigated by Mueller. He ordered several employees to lie to the prosecutor. That is a more understandable crime. If John Gotti orders someone to lie to the cops or prosecutors then that is an obvious crime. And that is exactly what Trump did. We need to broaden the grounds for impeachment. Also our preeminent anti corruption law is the emoluments clause. It flat out outlaws a President taking money from foreign countries. Trump has taken money from 22 countries. That is illegal. Also Trump stole from his charity. He paid a two million dollar fine. Stealing from your charity is clearly wrong.