COVID-19 Stats and an observation

[defacto7]

COVID-19 Stats and an observation

Looking over the stats I have a couple interesting observations. Compared to active cases, the number of new cases is increasing about 5% per day worldwide. The two hot-spot outliers are South Korea at about 12% per day, Italy at about 10% per day, and Iran at 30% per day.

Good news for China... they seem to have turned the corner and both deaths and new cases are dropping considerably. The number of deaths compared to cases with an outcome has decreased to 6% (overall)

But a statement by a representative of WHO has this to say:

China got patients in treatment early and have highly sophisticated health care treatment procedures. They are really good at keeping people alive with this disease. They have a survival rate for this disease I would not extrapolate to the rest of the world. (a mortality rate of just under 1% outside of Hubei province) What you’ve seen in Italy and Iran is that a lot of people are dying.

Bruce Aylward, World Health Organization Joint Mission to China
Link to complete statement here

These are just my observations today. Keeping an eye on statistics gives a better perspective on the situation than media reports. Stats are important.

[FBaggins]

1. IF the China numbers are accurate (a very big IF)... that's encouraging

It means that there's a corner that can be turned once we better learn how to spot it and treat it.

If a vaccine can be developed over the course of the year, Trump could end up with a blind squirrel moment.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. China took steps that would be unimaginable here

A complete lock down of a huge population center. Not possible in the US.

[defacto7]

8. Agreed. Even though the UK has stated that

they will shut down whole cities if they have to.

[defacto7]

7. I agree about China and their stats.

What makes me a bit more secure about the Chinese stats and methods was the WHO Joint Mission to China where they observed first hand. I'm getting the idea they are way above us in dealing with the disease although their methods may not be what people of democratized countries would submit to. Add to that our administration's incompetence and we will not likely see the Chinese death rates of <1%, they will be much higher.

[Ms. Toad]

3. The US is at a 6+% rate of deaths to confirmed cases. n/t

[Maeve]

4. The problem being 'confirmed cases'

We aren't testing enough to confirm milder cases, so it will tend to skew the numbers

[Ms. Toad]

6. Yup. That's why I'm very careful to be accurate in how I phrase things.

Unlike the orange idiot who keeps stating there are only 44 (or fewer) cases in the US, without clarifying that he is excluding the cases in the US that have ccurredn in people evacuated from Wuhan or the cruise ship. Somehow, if the come here on their own from Wuhan, it is inherently different from having the government transport them here. Enough different that he can pretend they don't exist.

[defacto7]

9. Yes, it's really right here in the US that we are bliinded to the stats.

Available info says 106 confirmed cases this morning. But who really knows. All we can do to possibly get more reliable info is to check state and city reporting and then only in blue states. Tedious work.

[Ms. Toad]

14. 109, now - with 9 deaths. n/t

[RAB910]

5. My take

Italy is a complete disaster. Hell, there are even cases showing up in China that originated in Italy

Thanks to Italy it's looking like Germany, Spain, and France are losing contain and may be joining China, Italy, South Korea, and Iran in having a full-blown outbreak

[defacto7]

10. I'm with you.

There are 2 social extremes with this thing, China where they lock down populations airtight, South Korea where they test on mass... and then the other extreme where people in Iran refuse to stop licking religious sites, objects and doors or North Korea where they just shoot those possibly infected.

[Wellstone ruled]

11. And no none is talking about

Canada. Noticed on a Guardian Plot map of known Cases,B.C.and Alberta had several active cases.

As per Wuhan,from a family member in Vietnam who use to teach in Wuhan City,the local Medical people are making sure those whom might be or are infected are Isolated ASAP.

[defacto7]

12. I'd imagine information from Canada will be very useful

to our doctors here since they can't get info from our own government.

[Wellstone ruled]

13. Sure hope so,

Hundreds of people cross the border into the US daily for work. Actually it goes both ways.