Informative thread on COVID-19 response from someone living in the midst of it in Seattle

[Dennis Donovan]

Darcy Burner ✔@DarcyBurner

[1] I live, work, & run a biz in the Eastside suburbs of Seattle which are ground zero for SARS-CoV-2 aka #CoronaVirusSeattle. Here are the things not being talked about enough:

1) Local hospital isolation rooms are full of COVID-19 patients who haven’t yet been reported.

[2] We are quickly approaching the current capacity of the hospitals to treat people.

There are far more cases than are being acknowledged; based on patterns of spread seen in China & reported in the WHO report (https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf …) we are probably looking at 1k-2k cases &

[3] between 50 and 150 people hospitalized on oxygen &/or ventilators because of the disease.

The people who aren’t hospitalized are currently spreading the virus largely unchecked, and right now have no way to get tested.

[4] This is an exponential growth problem. Roughly every 6 days, we get another generation of infections that’s more than 2x times the size of the last generation. So 1k->2k->4k->8k->16k->32k->64k->128k->256k by sometime in April. 20% of those people need hospitalization.

[5] 20% of 256k is about 50k people hospitalized. From this one cluster spreading. And it’s clear there is more than one cluster spreading in the US right now. We don’t have that many hospital beds or respirators.

[6] In China, they slowed the spread by doing massive testing, closing schools and workplaces, and contact tracing every case including the mild ones. That path is really hard for the US to follow.

There are some policy things that could be done to limit the damage.

[7] Policy item #1: make Coronavirus testing & treatment free for everyone (probably via Medicaid). You want to catch & isolate everyone case.

Policy item #2: Get massive numbers of effective test kits into the hands of docs & clinics ASAP. Fly them in from Germany or China.

[8] Every day of delay in testing people, the virus spreads to more people. Time is of the essence.

Policy item #3: Figure out a way to keep money in the pockets of anybody who stays home sick because of this. People need to pay rent and buy food, and this is a societal crisis.

[9] Policy item #4: Move quickly to keep businesses affected by this afloat. Businesses will be crippled by supply chain problems, people out sick, customers in isolation. Make SBA disaster relief loans widely available for any business who needs them.

[10] Cancel large gatherings and school sooner rather than later in areas of outbreak. Yes, it’s super inconvenient, but will also be inconvenient when kids have parents die of this because the child brought the infection home & there were no more hospital beds for the parent.

[11] Mandate that insurance companies cover 90 days of prescriptions now, & figure out how to do delivery of prescriptions & food.

This is going to be bad, but how bad it is will depend a lot on whether policy makers grit their teeth & do what’s needed.

4:20 PM - Mar 3, 2020

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[dewsgirl]

1. Seeing this thread and knowing the reality of the Trump administration,

somehow I now think this may be worse than I ever imagined.😔😳

[Dennis Donovan]

3. You probably won't want to read this, then. 😣

WaPo: The U.S. health system is showing why it's not ready for a coronavirus pandemic

[dewsgirl]

4. I just saw the thread about this article, thank you.😔

This all truly sucks, I'm trying not to be all doom and gloom, but as the thread points out, we are truly going to be in real trouble soon.

[Newest Reality]

2. That looks like...

That looks like exponential growth, in fact it is. I haven't checked into it, but this seems to be a highly contagious virus in that case.

Of course, we can all cringe when we have a Monster in the White House grinning like a macabre face of Death at us all when it comes to the suggestions for action that won't be executed as this plays its course.

What with the illness and deaths, there is so much collateral damage to come, as well, so it is not just about sickness.

[displacedtexan]

13. I read yesterday that Covid-19 has an R0 (R Naught) of almost 2.

A lot more contagious than seasonal flu, which has an R0 (R Naught) of 1.

[PSPS]

19. It's far too early to have an accurate r0

At the early stages like this, you can't have an accurate denominator because you don't know how many people were exposed/infected and recovered on their own without any intervention (thus, not counted.) As a general rule, the r0 will go down as more information is gathered.

[PSPS]

5. Darcy Burner is a crackpot

Other than #1 on her list, everything else is unattributed and/or unfounded speculation. Having once worked in the sales department at Microsoft doesn't qualify her as any kind of epidemiologist or qualified in any medical field.

People should get their information and advice from qualified, reliable and knowledgeable sources which, in the Seattle area, would be Seattle/King County Health or the Washington State Department of Health.

[Dennis Donovan]

6. I don't see anything listed that's been knocked down

...in fact, I'm seeing similar reports.

[PSPS]

7. "Reports" are usually just hysterical hyperbole like this. Cough up some authoritative links.

[Dennis Donovan]

8. *I'm* not going to cough up anything...

Move on if you don't like the OP.

[PSPS]

9. OK. I just think it's important to point out disinformation like this wacko Burner twitter nonsense

[Dennis Donovan]

10. You're the one calling it out.

Prove it wrong or move on.

[bluestarone]

14. Exactly!!

We know it's bad in Washington! Good thread!

[PSPS]

18. LOL "Prove it wrong"

I receive hourly telepathic communication from the planet Xenu. Prove me wrong!!11!

I don't know why you're taking this personally. I'm not going after you. It's just that there is so much misinformation going out, especially on social media like twitter, that people should realize that most of what they hear or see through such channels is not reliable. Burner's wild-eyed and non-factual rant can scare a lot of people needlessly because they will assume it's coming from someone who has actual facts (she doesn't) and is drawing logical and well-informed conclusions (she isn't.)

Like I said before, if someone wants meaningful and accurate information, they should seek advice and information from King County/Seattle Health or the Washington Department of Health. Don't assume anything you hear elsewhere, whether it's from Burner, Limbaugh or even the White House, is accurate.

[Dennis Donovan]

20. So, you can't prove it wrong?

Last edited Wed Mar 4, 2020, 11:54 PM - Edit history (1)

[Nature Man]

12. so says random, anonymous forum poster

eh . . .

[PSPS]

15. I'm not posting wild-eyed unsubstantiated rumors or fantasies as fact. The crackpot Burner is.

If you have something worthwhile to contribute, feel free to do so.

[Nature Man]

16. I will as soon as you have something worthwhile to

contribute.

[Nature Man]

11. [12] "Pray and die" - Republican Jesus

[jpak]

17. Yup Yup Yup and Yup, Yup Yup Yup

This is Apocalypse Now.