As the coronavirus spreads, one study predicts that even the best-case scenario is 15 million dead

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

and a $2.4 trillion hit to global GDP

As coronavirus cases continue to rise around the world, a group of Australian experts predict that the economic impact of the disease in the best-case scenario may total $2.4 trillion in lost global gross domestic product.

The coronavirus outbreak that originated in Wuhan, China, has killed nearly 3,300 people and infected more than 95,000. The virus, which causes a disease known as COVID-19, has spread to at least 81 countries.

More than 150 cases have been reported in the US, including 11 deaths across two states. The World Health Organization has declared the outbreak an international public-health emergency and warned that the window of opportunity to contain it is narrowing.

On Tuesday, the WHO noted that the global death rate for the novel coronavirus based on the latest figures was 3.4% — higher than earlier figures of about 2%. The WHO's director-general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said the new coronavirus was "a unique virus with unique characteristics."

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-spreads-one-study-predicts-101552222.html

[Proud Liberal Dem]

1. That's pretty bad

Hope that's wrong

[Throck]

2. I'll bet against it.

If I'm wrong, good luck collecting.

The panic insanity has to stop.

[obamanut2012]

7. seconded

[uponit7771]

11. 750 million Chinese were quarantined for weeks doubt it's "Insanity". (link)

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/18/806868972/coronavirus-lockdown-democratic-caucuses-and-primaries-ahead-weinstein-trial

[lapfog_1]

3. maybe... but the number of new infections in China has reached a steady state

actually declining a little.

The rest of the world... no. As Trump would say "we have some things to go through".

but China has a population of 1.1B... and the official infection stat is 80,500... and the unofficial infection rate is likely to be over 1M. but that is still .1% of the population.

China has implemented draconian isolation practices on virtually the entire population (can't leave your home in many cities, can travel out of your city without going through a testing checkpoint). I don't know if we will be able to do that...

OTOH, information and some misinformation is spreading about the virus... so many people in the US and Europe will self isolate, even if not ill, as much as possible.

So, while I don't discount what the pandemic projections are today, and they certainly seem possible... I have hope that we will fight this and it won't be as bad as they project.

But, as always, prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

[ibegurpard]

4. yeah it's going to be bad

Take whatever personal precautions you can and hope for the best.
Trump and the Republicans who continue to prop him up, however, deserve nothing but scorn and disdain for their lack of attention to it. Governments can do a LOT more than any one of us individuals.

[getagrip_already]

5. looking at the stats from wuhan.....

If you are under 60, you have a minuscule chance of dying from the virus. 60-69 it's something like 8%, 70-79 14%, and over 79 close to 50%. There have been no deaths in children under 10.

The probability of death goes up with underlying conditions like obesity, heart disease, pulmonary disease or impairment, diabetes, etc.

You can be pretty certain that anyone without health insurance stands a much higher risk of dying because they will delay care. About 14% of people infected will need hospitalization. Think about that number for a moment. In even a moderatly sized community, 100,000 people could be sick. How do you find beds for 14,000 people?

Trump's own base will be hardest hit by this. They are older, unhealthier, and more ignorant than most. He has been telling them it's a hoax, so they won't think anything of flue symptoms.

Oh, and one other thing, the median time from first onset of symptoms until death is about 2 weeks.

[Blues Heron]

6. that 3.4 percent figure is based on known cases

it doesn't take into consideration mild cases that didn't get entered into the system.

[obamanut2012]

8. Thank you!

This is driving me crazy, especially since authorities believe it's been in the US for months now.

[uponit7771]

12. +1, people are hyper focused on the death rate vs the rate people are getting sick from it.

[DFW]

9. Europe is so thickly populated

Even with people staying home, it is likely that a LOT of people, probably including me, will be exposed to it. I'm in a danger group (over 60 with heart disease), but relatively fit otherwise. My job requires me to travel constantly, although yesterday, and today, the train down to Paris was practically deserted. The train back up to Brussels in the evening was packed.

I just spoke to my wife, who is supposed to come home from Israel on Sunday. Her flight, on Austrian Airlines, via Vienna both ways, has been canceled, since Austrian may no longer fly to Israel for now (Israeli orders). Her travel group, who all flew with her from Düsseldorf, is collectively desperately trying to find a way to get home. I told my wife to start learning Hebrew just in case. She said both the written and the spoken language were impossibly beyond her, and she was not amused. She did say the food on her hotel was great, salads with unlimited palm hearts and artichoke hearts (when I heard THAT I almost got on the first plane--I could live on that stuff alone!).

But I am stuck with my schedule, and if meetings and events I am supposed to attend are not canceled, I really need to be there. I think.

Georges Clemenceau once noted that the cemeteries are full of irreplaceable people--all of whom were replaced. I should probably ponder that for a bit.

[muriel_volestrangler]

10. Actually, it's economists *assuming* the best-case scenario is 15 million dead

Paper here, from Australian National University - PDF will download automatically if you click on this: https://anu.prezly.com/coronavirus-is-highly-uncertain-and-the-costs-could-be-high?asset_type=attachment&asset_id=171409#attachment-171409ttachment-171409

Epidemiological assumptions

The attack rates (proportion of the population who are infected) and case-fatality rates
(proportion of those infected who die) and the implied mortality rate (proportion of total
population who dies) assumed for China under seven different scenarios are contained in Table
2 below

And their lowest assumption for the world is an "attack rate" of 10%, and "case-fatality rate" of 2%. So that's 0.2% of the world dying, which is the 15 million. What they're doing, as economists, is then predicting what that does to the global economy.

[Chainfire]

13. So, after this passes

Will it be easier for me to find an apartment?