The current state of the 13 flippable 2020 Senate seats

[Celerity]

Here is my completely up to date, most detailed post yet on the state of the races.

We need a plus 4 net to flip the Senate to a 51-49 Dem advantage (so no power sharing agreements needed at all) as it stands, and a plus 5 net if we lose Doug Jones, which is, unfortunately likely as Paedo Moore was crushed in the Rethug Primary, and I fear either Tuberville (probably the favourite to win the Rethug run-off) or Sessions will win.

We should absolute hold all our other seats. Jeanne Shaheen in NH is the only one that is probably not a 99% lock, with the Rethugs choosing between Don Bolduc, former U.S. Army brigadier general, Bill O'Brien, former Speaker of the New Hampshire House of Representatives, Kelly Ayotte, former U.S. Senator and former Attorney General of New Hampshire, Scott 'Pickup' Brown, U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa, former U.S. Senator from Massachusetts, and 2014 Republican nominee for U.S. Senate from New Hampshire.

These are all the remotely possible races where we can flip, all 13 of them. Some are very much a stretch, and also we are having a lot of big names refuse to run, in fact, all the arguably best candidates in 10 of the 13 seats have all refused, so far, to run.


These are the only 3 states ATM with our strongest possible candidates running:

Arizona Mark Kelly has a great chance at beating McSally. This was (until Hickenlooper got smart) the only state so far that we had the best potential candidate already running.

Colorado Hickenlooper now running makes it 90-95% that we flip this. Even if you do not think he is the best on policy, he still is the most electable. All I ask is that he knocks it off with the red-baiting (saying progressives are bringing back Stalin and Marx's policies), which is asinine and plays into the Rethug's hands. I would much prefer Joe Neguse or Andrew Romanoff to Hickenlooper strictly on policy.

Montana Bullock finally decided to run, and he gives us a great chance to flip this Blue.


Now the ones who do NOT have our strongest candidates running as of yet:


Alaska (I hope Mark Begich, our ex US Senator there, runs versus Sullivan, he has said he was not, but now may change his mind.) If Begich ends up completely declining, then it will probably up to Independent Al Gross, as Ethan Berkowitz, mayor of Anchorage, and Forrest Dunbar, Anchorage assemblyman and nominee for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 2014 have both also declined. If no Begich, this is a hard one to win.

Maine (Susan Rice, who has said no quite emphatically, would have been the best to knock out the POS hypocrite Collins IMHO, but hopefully we can find another great one, it looks likely to be Sara Gideon atm, I think Gideon can take out Collins, just was more sure on Rice, but she is not going to run.).

Tennessee (open Rethug seat, due to Alexander retiring, I so hope Tim McGraw (yes the superstar singer, who said for years he would run when he was 50, and he is 52 now) reconsiders his turndown, he would have the best shot from all I have seen, most of the other candidates we have are already one time losers, some just last year, or pretty unknown. The two I see who are the best should McGraw not change his mind are Jeff Yarbro and especially James Mackler)

Georgia With Isakson retiring (there will be an interim Repug appointed for the last year) There are now TWO seats we can flip. Stacey Abrams and Sally Yates would have had the best chances by far to beat Perdue and Rethug X, but each one has said no over and over, so it is going to be much harder I fear, even though Perdue is weak, and a shit campaigner. Jon Ossoff has now declared for David Perdue's seat, as have Teresa Tomlinson, and Sarah Riggs Amico.

In the other race, the Special Election, we REALLY need Sally Yates to change her mind, as so far we have no really strong candidates there, and it deffo is winnable as the Rethugs have a NASTY fight on their hands, between White Power Barbie Kelly Loeffler (currently sitting) and then Trump arse-licker uber scum, Doug Collins. So far the Dems who have declared are Matt Lieberman, businessman and son of Joe Lieberman, former U.S. Senator from Connecticut, Ed Tarver, former United States Attorney for the Southern District of Georgia and former state senator, Raphael Warnock, reverend and pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church, and Richard Dien Winfield, professor and candidate for Georgia's 10th congressional district in 2018.


Kansas Open Rethug seat due to Roberts retiring, the right candidate for us has a shot, and that is Kathleen Sebelius, but she also just said no, and a big local paper says that really hurts our chances This is a carbon copy of Montana, just swap in Sebelius for Bullock, its a Red state and all the insiders say she is only Dem who can win. Sebelius needs to follow Bullocks' lead and jump in!!!

Iowa (Cindy Axne and Vilsack, probably our 2 best chances to beat the detestable Joni Ernst, both have declined to run, but I have hope Theresa Greenfield will be the Dem winner and has a great shot at beating the POS Ernst) Chet Culver (not declared) also has a decent shot, but my money is on Greenfield.

North Carolina Our two best candidates by far, Foxx and Stein, have both said no, and Cal Cunningham is now our nominee. I still think he can beat the really weak Tillis, who is very unpopular there.


now the two wishful thinking states:

Kentucky This is probably the 2nd toughest. Andy Beshear might have had a shot at dumping McTurtle, but he ran (and won!!!) the Governorship. Amy McGrath is who we are probably going to have to roll with, and it is not impossible, due to McConnell being truly hated even by some Rethugs, his overall approval numbers are worse than Rump by far, amongst the bottom in all the Senate. Overall a huge reach, but so hope Moscow Mitch goes DOWN. McGrath needs to make no more errors like the one she did right at kickoff (saying she would have voted yes for Kavanaugh for SCOTUS. The same thing crushed Bredesen in TN in 2018, it so depressed our base turnout.)

Texas Cornyn in Texas is the toughest reach, Cornyn is streets ahead of Cruz in terms of TX popularity. I like Amanda Edwards a lot, but she lost in the Primary, so now it is a runoff between MJ Hegar and Royce West. I think Hegar wins the runoff. I wonder if Democratic House member Henry Cuellar (who unfortunately won his primary in his deep blue district on Tuesday) will campaign for and fundraise for Rethug Corbyn against Hegar, as he sabotaged her in 2018 by campaigning and fundraising for her Rethug opponent, the despicable bigot and climate change denialist, John Carter. He seems to have a true dislike for her. If he does that again, I think he should be kicked out of the Party. He voted around 70% of the time with the Trump in the last full congress, is anti-LGBTQ, Pro Life, and A - rated by the NRA.

We would need to win FIVE of those 13 to flip it to 51-49 IF Jones goes down in Alabama, and only CO is even close to one that I would say is a pretty good chance to label a lock, and some are just downright so so hard, even if the best candidates change their minds and run. My true target is 6 flips, so we are at 52-48, and thus negate Manchin and Sinema, who vote with the Rethugs 55% of the time, far more than any other Democratic Senators. I SO hope Hickenlooper does not become the 3rd member of that posse.

Schumer and Cortez Masto have been so poor at recruiting the best candidates, it is one of the biggest stories of 2020 so far, although they FINALLY (I think it was Obama who got him) changed Bullock's mind. I am going to give up on pulling the people who I think are strongest in ME, IA, (those two I can be happy with who we have) NC, (already decided, it is Cal Cunningham) TX, GA, (the regular one, as zero chance Stacey Abrams will run now) and KY. We just have to roll with who we have there now. AZ, CO and MT (yay!) now have our best possible, so that leaves:

AK (Begich run!)
TN (McGraw run!)
KS (Sebelius run!)
GA (Special election) (Yates run!)


IF all those above change their minds and run, I can say, with at least 60% or more confidence, we will hit at least 6 flips, and maybe, IF Rump just gets crushed, win as many as 9 or 10.

[DarthDem]

1. Good detail

But I think your focus is off just a bit. Why focus on who didn't run? You missed Barbara Bollier in KS, who has a good shot if it's Kobach. I also disagree about ME - Sara Gideon was not only the best get, she has also run a fantastic campaign. And Schumer lobbied hard for Rev. Warnock in GA.

[Celerity]

2. the 'best ones' have been listed in all my posts for months now, I absolutely stand by

Sebelius in KS as the best, Rice in ME, and Yates (and Abrams who is deffo NOT running) in GA. That does not mean others cannot win (KS is probably the least likely if no Sibelius). I think Gideon has a great shot. I detest Susan Collins.

[TexasTowelie]

3. Cuellar is not going to be kicked out of the Democratic Party.

If they let Bernie (who is only a Democrat for presidential primaries) and Bloomberg (who has supported many Republicans) run, then not only is Cuellar safe, but he also has the support of the majority his constituents which those two don't have. Cuellar also has the support of Pelosi.

Let's face it, Cuellar is the candidate that won the Democratic primary. I think that it would be arrogant to overrule the will of the people that voted for Cuellar and the backlash would be that the Democratic party would lose that congressional seat forever if we went through with your idea. Not a good move.

[Celerity]

4. I so hope a normal, centre-left, non Justice Democrat primaries him in 2022. And IF Cuellar

did actually have the jacobs to fundraise and campaign for John Cornyn, your damn right he should be booted. I draw the line at that. He is as barely a Democrat as one can get. Many of his views are repugnant and completely against the Party platform, he supported and fundraised for a bigot Rethug against a good solid Democrat in Hegar, and he votes with the Rethugs an insane amount of the time in the past.

[TexasTowelie]

7. I didn't vote for Hegar in the Senate race because I don't like her position on gun control

and her personality rubs me the wrong way. It appears that Cuellar has forged an amicable working relationship with Rep. Carter from central Texas which is why he supported him in the 2018 election. I don't know what the status of Cuellar/Hegar relationship so I'll wait to see what happens if Hegar wins the runoff in a couple of months. I ended up voting for Amanda Edwards for Senate because Royce West (the candidate that Hegar is facing in the runoff) has business connections with a Republican. I don't know who I will vote for in the runoff because Hegar's experience is solely as an advocate while Royce West has been a state senator since 1993.

While people from around the country contributed to Cisneros' campaign against Cuellar, the people that get to decide who is their representative are the voters in that district. Your ideological view of Cuellar doesn't matter unless you decide to move to 28th congressional district in Texas and you register to vote. The voters in that district see Cuellar as someone who can broker deals with Republicans rather than as an ideologue. To those voters having a Congressman that can bring jobs into the district is more important to them than his position on party platform planks. At this point I believe that we should respect the will of the voters rather than bash the Democratic candidate in the 2020 election (which is what you are doing since there is no runoff election in that district). Why should your opinion (or anyone else's opinion) mean more than the people who elected him?

[Celerity]

8. disagree on this the most

Your ideological view of Cuellar doesn't matter unless you decide to move to 28th congressional district in Texas and you register to vote.

as he votes on things that impact on a national scale.


btw

Gun control group Giffords endorses Hegar in Senate race

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200206/gun-control-group-giffords-endorses-hegar-in-senate-race


I assume you are upset because she (like most of the other the other Presidential Candidates running against Beto) did not support Beto's mandatory, forced buyback/confiscation. That stance is an electoral disaster waiting to happen IMHO.

[TexasTowelie]

12. You know what they say about people that make assumptions?

I wasn't enthusiastic about MJ Hegar at the outset when she announced her run for the Senate because she never has held any elected office. At least Royce West, Chris Bell, and Amanda Edwards have won elections (and have law degrees) which puts all three of those contenders ahead of her when I was making my decision for whom to vote. To put it simply, Hegar isn't the most qualified candidate and her position on the mandatory gun buybacks reaffirmed my commitment to support one her opponents in the primary. Even though Hegar wasn't my preferred candidate, I will vote for her in the general election if she wins the primary runoff.

And as much as you don't like Cuellar, the majority of voters in that district do like him. I can't blame the voters for picking an incumbent that has a BA, MA, JD and Ph.D over a 26 year-old immigration attorney who doesn't even hold a license in Texas to practice law and who hasn't even lived in that congressional district for most of her life as an adult (four years of college, three years of law school, and one year in New York). Cisneros' advocacy for immigrants may have been a detriment to her in the primary election since I've had several Hispanics make comments to me about not allowing more immigrants into the country.

I don't believe that your opinion should overrule the will of the voters in that district--that is what democracy is all about. You can contribute to Cuellar's opponent in the 2022 primary if anyone decides to run against him. The boundary lines of that district will change prior to that election; however, the fact that Cuellar withstood this challenge after all of the money was poured into the primary from outside the district is going to make that race unattractive to any contenders in the future. If Cisneros hadn't received the endorsements from Justice Democrats, AOC, Warren, and Sanders along with the financial windfall that came with it, then the primary results wouldn't have been nearly so close.

[Turin_C3PO]

21. Cuellar is just horrible though.

Of course it’s ultimately up to the voters of his district to boot him out but I’d like to see him go. He’s anti-lgbt which is unforgivable in today’s environment. We don’t need bigots on our ticket. I’m very tolerant of moderates in our party, in fact I think they’re necessary but outright bigotry is where I draw the line.

[TexasTowelie]

24. Well you made me search online.

There is only one gay bar in Laredo (there used to be two). I doubt that there are any gay bars in the portion of Bexar county that is in his district so I doubt that he has much exposure with the gay population in that district.

FWIW, I think that Congressmen Gonzalez and Vela who are also in South Texas have somewhat similar records as Cuellar. The stated reason why they weren't targeted by Justice Democrats and AOC are because their districts are not nearly as blue as Cuellar's district. Occasionally I read the comments that are in the local media articles and there were some responses that said they would prefer Cuellar over Gonzalez because Gonzalez is an intellectual lightweight in comparison.

There simply is no tradition of liberalism in South Texas. Most of the region is over 50% Hispanic and Roman Catholic so we have to run candidates that appeal to those demographics. The educational institutions lean more towards vocational trades rather than the social sciences and liberal arts. The overall environment is more misogynistic than in urban areas or the rural areas of central Texas--those are the reasons why I went to college in Central Texas and why I would never want to move there again.

While I don't want bigots on our ticket, I would be reluctant to surrender the three congressional seats in South Texas over to the GOP by placing more progressive candidates on the general election ballot. In 2018, Democrats ran Eric Holguin for the 27th Congressional District representing Corpus Christi up to Wharton and he fared poorly in the general election since he is gay. Holguin won the Democratic primary this year, but I don't expect for him to do any better this election.

Let's face it, the region south of San Antonio is not going to elect liberal Democrats. The best thing that we can hope for is to hold onto those congressional seats so that we can keep Democrats as the majority party in the U.S. House. The "rock the boat" strategy to get more liberal representatives seems like a poor use of financial resources when we should be concentrating on other districts that we can flip from red to blue. Over $1 million was donated to Cisneros which could have been used more effectively elsewhere. I believe that Cuellar also spent that much on his campaign. Despite all the money that was spent, nothing was gained as far as getting a more progressive representative.

[wishstar]

5. Who is the Foxx in NC you believe was better prospective candidate than Cal Cunningham?

I guess the Stein you mention was Josh Stein?

[Celerity]

6. Anthony Foxx, he was Obama's Secretary of Transportation, and before that an extremely popular

Mayor of Charlotte, it's youngest Mayor ever. Yes, Josh Stein was the other.

[wishstar]

9. Oh yes, brain fog this morning! I do hope Foxx returns to public service in near future

[Celerity]

11. Cal Cunningham is hardly a disaster, I think he takes out the scum Tillis

The big 4 (5 if you count Abrams) misses are the ones I listed

Begich (even he would have had a hard time though)

and especially

Yates, McGraw

and the biggest one (and we have such little chance if she doesn't run) Sebelius

the likely Dem nominee, Barbara Bollier, was a Rethug until December 2018. We so need the RWNJ Kobach to win the Rethug primary.

Kansas has not had a Democratic Senator win since 1932, and only 3 total since it became a state in 1861. The last competitive race there was 1974.

[beachbumbob]

10. the possibility of a significant democrat landslide is growing closer as Biden becomes our nominee

the fear of trump/gop/putin is the massive voting that will happen can't be "fixed" enough. We could see the largest swing of political power in US history if you factor in state and local democratic victories in the making too.

Be nice to wake up on Nov 7th with a 8 seat net democratic senate gain

[Luciferous]

13. Nice breakdown! It looks like we may have a tough time getting the majority, but hopefully

we'll have high turnout and flip those seats

[Celerity]

15. Assuming none of my big 4 enters in, and Jones loses, then I think we have a good chance to still

flip 5 or 6

CO
AZ
MT
NC
IA
ME

are the best hope

maybe one of the GA seats

the rest are rough because we did not get those 4, plus TX and KY are herculean lifts

Tim McGraw, Sibelius, and Yates are the 3 that really piss me off

McGraw has said for 20 years he would run when he was 50 (he is 52 now, and it's an OPEN SEAT!), and Yates and especially Sibelius are all over telly saying what a dire situation we are in, yet then do fuckall to claw back the Senate, other than pep talks for lesser candidates

[Squinch]

14. Thank you! And yes, this should have been given a lot more effort from the top than it was.

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

16. Gideon is better than Rice for Maine

Gideon has been involved in Maine politics. She is currently the speaker of the Maine House. She lives here and raises a family here. Rice has not been involved in Maine politics and doesn't live here. It's just about the worst thing to move to Maine just to run for a political office. Do not try that here. People that do that are guaranteed to lose badly. Mainers view that as outsiders attempting to use them for their own personal gain.

[Celerity]

17. this is a good point, and Gideon and Greenfield in IA were the first 2 that I accepted it really

was not that big a deal at all with missing out on the top want list. I think they both win!

I have been posting this list for month, since last fall, with updates, and this is the first time I got any real feedback as to some of my positings!

So glad to get it.

The next one will have no more 'would have, could have, should have' lamentations. LOLOL

cheers

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

19. You're welcome

Just wanted to share that I think Gideon is the best bet for Maine. I have a feeling she is going to win.

[llmart]

18. +1

I really like Gideon and think she has a good chance of beating Collins.

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

20. I totally agree. n/t

[Turin_C3PO]

22. Good analysis.

The one I’m watching closely is Kentucky, I’d love to see Moscow Mitch kicked to the pavement. What are your thoughts on SC? Do you think Graham has any chance of being booted?

[SKKY]

23. If Kentucky gets a voter turn-out like they did for the Governor's election...

...Moscow Mitch is done.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

25. Bookmarked. Thanks so much for educating us and

Reminding us to keep our eyes on the prize, for the good of all.

Would be GREAT to see update at eom

[beachbumbob]

26. in Kansas, IF Kobach is the GOP candidate, we don't need a Kathleen Sebelius as our

candidate to win this senate seat. Matter of fact the most likely candidate will be Democrat Barbara Bollier’s and her campaign announced Tuesday it raised more than $1.1 million in the final three months of 2019, a record for a Kansas Democrat and a signal that the party leaders regard the seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Pat Roberts as in play.

Read more here: https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article239032038.html#storylink=cpy

[Celerity]

28. paywalled and lets hope Kobach is her opponent, we have not won a Senate race in KS since 1932

[Stuckinthebush]

27. Good news because Alabama will likely go Red

I'm from Alabama and have no hope that Jones gets re-elected. It was the perfect storm against the Alabama GOP the first time. That won't exist this time. Alabama is way too red.

[haydukelives]

29. Hickenlooper

is a disaster. He actually drank fracking fluid, said "fracking excites me". He does not have a progressive bone is his body.
Im caucusing for Rominoff Saturday.

[mountain grammy]

30. I would much prefer Romanoff

Or Neguse, my congressman ❤️, but if Hick gets the votes, I’m all in.

[CrispyQ]

31. In one of my recent messages to Cory Gardner, I told him,

"I want you out of office so badly I will even send Hickenlooper some money."

[Danascot]

32. Thanks for doing these analyses

It's not overstating the situation to say taking back the Senate is critical to our future as a nation. Your updates help our understanding of where we are in the fight.

It's looking optimistic but it's not over until November 4 so we can't slack off. With Russia and the GOP subverting the election process we have to vote in overwhelming numbers.

If you're able to please support our Senate candidates in whatever way you can or donate to https://www.dscc.org/