E-mail from my brother-in-law - (Corona virus)

[LAS14]

Last edited Fri Mar 6, 2020, 03:37 PM - Edit history (1)

"In New Rochelle, a neighboring town to mine, an attorney on his way back from a trip, infected his five family members, the Uber driver who brought him from the airport and the postman who he greeted at the door…. TOTAL OF EIGHT just as quick as that ! Before that, NY State had NO cases."

A SEQUEL:
In less than 36 hours the total infected cases here in Westchester has gone from 8 to 17. The additional 9 came from a visit to the attorney after he got home, from a friend in White Plains who happened to be a MD. The MD and his fellow docs and their staff are all infected, and the whole Practice is now temporarily CLOSED. What a story.

[Beringia]

1. trip from where

[Yonnie3]

3. The man had recently returned to New York from a trip to Miami

Here is a link.

https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-second-coronavirus-case-attorney-law-firm-grand-central-2020-3

[Beringia]

22. Thanks so much

[dewsgirl]

2. I bet he was asymptomatic, many super spreaders are.

The Colorado governer stood up there last night and said, asymptomatic cases are not contagious.😳

[Sanity Claws]

7. That man had severe symptoms

He was hospitalized.
His neighbor, the one who got infected, drove him to the hospital.

[dewsgirl]

10. I mean before, I was aware he is very sick now.

[karynnj]

11. In the link above, it says he is hospitalized and the neighbor who drove him to the hospital

is one of the people infected. However, he might have had a period when he was contagious, but did not know it - as it speaks of concern for people who attended services on February 22 or a funeral on February 23 at his synagogue. I hope that they have contacted everyone on his Miami flight.

[dewsgirl]

13. I must have been posting at the same time as you,

I am aware he is severely ill now and yes I meant before.

[Arkansas Granny]

4. Just that fast. What is the incubation period for coronavirus?

[jpak]

15. 2-14 days

n/t

[customerserviceguy]

55. Maybe

By the time this whole story is written, my guess is that one of the major mistakes in handing COVID-19 is making assumptions based on previous coronaviruses.

[SWBTATTReg]

5. Wow. And of course all of these people dealt w/ other people later, too...

especially the mail person and Uber driver. Wow...this is an easily spread virus.

Just from the recent reports I've heard, there is so far a mortality rate of 2-4% (I'm ignoring the POS in the WH and what he says).

I had just one question/comment, if a virus is so lethal, how does it in the long run continue to spread? That is, why from a long term genetics basis, would you want to kill all of your hosts...if you kill them all, then you (the virus) has killed yourself.

Also, since this virus is so infectious, is it perhaps subject to mutating over time as compared to other less infectious viruses (logic here is that less infectious viruses experience fewer diverse environments vs. those viruses that are very infectious, more different environments leads to more genetic changes).

[coti]

6. Why would humans want to make the environment they live in uninhabitable to them? nt

[SWBTATTReg]

8. I have no idea of what you are trying to say here...doesn't make sense.

[coti]

9. My point is that, despite evolution, things kill themselves off nt

[SWBTATTReg]

12. and where did I suggest humans kill themselves off, by changing their environment? I was ...

talking about a virus...perhaps I'm missing your whole thought process here...

[coti]

14. You asked why it would be advantageous for a virus to kill off its host

I pointed out that humans are doing the same thing (to themselves).

Nevermind. Don't worry about it.

[SWBTATTReg]

16. I didn't realize that your answer was being rhetorical vs. mine, on actual virus propagation...

Of course it wouldn't be advantageous for a virus to kill all of its hosts, I was being rhetorical here too.

Thanks, and have a nice Friday!

[jberryhill]

31. What happens if the foxes eat all the rabbits?

[jberryhill]

30. Nonsense

You are babbling nonsense.



That graph does not support the notion that "humans are killing themselves off".

Natural selection does not work on a predictive basis, but on the accumulated events up to the point in time under consideration.

[coti]

50. Well, hopefully your graph never goes to zero,

but forever's a long time, you know.

And if/when it ever does, we've taken such power over and have such an incredible impact on our environment that I have a feeling we may have something to do with it.

That's not to say that we could ever destroy the Earth or all life, even if we tried- we can't. But I do think we're more than capable of destroying ourselves, and maybe not THAT far in the distant future. We haven't yet evolved the maturity and discipline that is necessary to go with our power.

[jberryhill]

51. I'm sure it will

But the point is that evolution favors reproductive success, not wisdom or foresight.

[lostnfound]

20. Maybe if we are lucky it will evolve into a much less lethal version that immunized us all

Hoping for a not-lethal type that will nonetheless create immunity to the more lethal type.

This one spreads rapidly but doesn’t kill as rapidly. I think people who get a severe case are in the hospital for a month (and on respirators for much of the time.)

[SWBTATTReg]

21. Indeed! I have heard about the demand for respirators too. I hope that we'll have enough...

of them down the road, but of course the best thing is that it runs its course, w/o any deaths, especially since it already seems to be here, whether the rump admin. admits it or not. Perhaps this refusing to face the facts is why the stock markets and other markets have been going down. Because no one believes what the admin. is telling people.

Perhaps a lesson will be learned by the rump administration on where and when to cut budgets, but I kind of doubt it.

This will hang over the rump administration like a dark cloud, as it should. Cutting budgets for the pure numbers doesn't work in environments such as in a pandemic, and you would think that the republicans and rump would already know this, but sadly no. Greed over lives.

This should be stuck onto the faces of every single rump supporter, every republican senator, and every person playing the numbers game in the rump admin. Profit numbers never equals lives, never.

[cwydro]

24. Think about how many people the mail carrier probably interacted with - touching everyone's mail,

co-workers, his family, everyone he or she spoke with on the route...

I talk to my mail carrier almost every day, and usually take the mail from his hands to mine.

[CaptYossarian]

39. The rural ones have to manually open those roadside boxes.

And after touching all the ones before them. Then people come home and open those same boxes.

We'll have to clean the handles with a disinfectant wipe before opening, but the paper contents are porous and will hold the germs.

There's also putting groceries into your cart. And there's...

Okay, we're doomed.

[dmr]

52. My son insists we no longer order off Amazon, and anything

outstanding that hasn't yet been delivered goes into a covered bin down the basement. I don't remember how long he said he'd store them down there. As an added precaution, he's sprayed them with Lysol.

He said earlier today, he'd rather the family not eat out. I guess if you're going to take precautions, now is a good time to start. But as you're trying to say in your post ... there are a lot of precautions to be considered ... so, "okay, we're doomed", lol.

He's concerned about our family, but I know he's especially concerned about me. If I catch this thing, I won't make it. Besides my Metastatic breast cancer, I'm on oxygen here at home. So chances of me surviving is pretty dismal, dammit!

The best way to do this is to be a total shut-in. Who wants that?

[CaptYossarian]

56. I'm glad he's looking out for you.

Be well.

[intrepidity]

28. Because it can

Ultimately, in any natural selection situation, the answer is always "because it can."

There's no strategy or planning or thought of any kind.

It's purely practical, pragmatic. It does it because it can. The very proof that it works is that it survives long enough for us to notice. Jury is still out on how long it will continue to exist--as it is for us all, with evolving circumstances.

(But, as a matter of fact, this virus doesn't kill *all* of it's hosts, that truly would deem it eligible for a Darwin award.)

[stopdiggin]

32. there is science

or at least theory on this subject
High mortality vs low. Highly infectious vs less so. Rapid conduction vs slower. And how all of that ties into to propagation (survival, evolution) of the virus.

you can do your own search, but here is a reasonably user friendly article I can across --
https://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/news/071201_adenovirus

[SWBTATTReg]

44. Very interesting and thank you so much for the site. I know that there is loads of science on the..

stuff, evolution and stuff, etc. Nice to have a spot to read on now, because it seems to be of interest now (unfortunately because of the CV), I've always been interested in the science / research stuff (being an ol' computer guy), and the .edu resources are especially nice, being that they are so chock full of information to read. Thanks so much.

[csziggy]

40. It's now spreading because of a fairly long asymptomatic period

By the time someone shows the signs, he could have spread it to hundreds of others. Repeat, over and over.

[Ms. Toad]

49. It's not killing them before they have a chance to infect others.

Quick lethality does burn out, but a 14+ day lethality gives the host 14 days to infect others.

[Nay]

54. SWB, it is not that lethal -- it's not like ebola, which kills you in hours or days.

You can have no symptoms for days or weeks (if you come down with symptoms); you can have such mild symptoms that you don't even go to the doctor; you may be a carrier with no symptoms; you may be totally immune but carry germs on your hands.

When you feel fine, you are walking around shedding virus and infecting others. No one, including you, knows you are even sick yet. That's how this sneaky thing gets around.

It looks like this virus may kill from 1% to 20% of the people infected, depending on the age (over 60, bad news) and condition (underlying health probs or a smoker, bad news). Many people will catch it and be fine.

[Tanuki]

18. It's even worse...their rabbi and several others are now infected

Services at the temple gave been halted, and many of the congregants are in self isolation. So are students in the classes taught by the rabbi at Yeshiva University. Much more about this broadening cluster at link:


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york.amp.html%3f0p19G=7900

[spanone]

19. Jeez ...When the numbers are finally tabulated and revealed trump will go on a 'fake news' tour

[nolabear]

23. My son's an Uber driver in Seattle. He's my biggest concern.

We bought him a UV car sanitizer to plug in and clean it every night but still...

[uponit7771]

25. Have the test kits been distributed yet? I'm wondering how people know. Either way sounds like

... this is very infectious virus

[beachbumbob]

26. how much is being held back from the public under the guise of "public good"???

[ramapo]

29. It'll become self-evident

This will spread like wildfire. It will not be pretty. Not unexpected really... just everybody was making believe this would never happen

[Traildogbob]

34. Sorry

Not for the public good, only for trump, stock market and billionaires good. Always their playbook. Follow the money. Good news, this killer does not give a shit about money. Every ecosystem has a way of thinning overpopulation. Single celled Plankton in the ocean has a specific virus that takes it down when the population is too dense. See, “Planet Ocean”. Early in the show while they are discussing the base of the food chain. People have met the earths carrying capacity. Just science though, all lies from the gates of hell. Quote from Repub senator. Be best y’all!

[stillcool]

35. I think New York is more pro-active..

in taking care of people.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-cases.html

2,773 People Are Under Quarantines in New York City
The mayor revealed that figure as officials said 11 new coronavirus cases had been identified in the state, bringing the total to 22.

[Squinch]

38. Cuomo is doing a great job. NYS will be doing its own testing

and not depending on the CDC shenanigans.

I am very happy to be a New Yorker right now.

[SunSeeker]

27. Wow

[moriah]

33. Article to support this (prefer them to emails)

https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/03/05/coronavirus-cases-new-york-westchester-county-new-rochelle/

At least 18 of the confirmed coronavirus cases in New York trace back to a man from New Rochelle. Hundreds of people who attend his house of worship are under quarantine.

And as you can imagine, that is raising any number of difficulties, CBS2’s Tony Aiello reported Thursday.

The event was staged, but sincere. Elected officials ate at a New Rochelle kosher Chinese restaurant, where coronavirus concerns are taking a bite out of business.

“We are here to demonstrate support for and confidence in a neighborhood and a business community that has borne an especially heavy burden,” New Rochelle Mayor Noam Bramson said.

[Squinch]

36. It's up to 21 cases now from that guy.

[CaptYossarian]

42. And we don't know who transmitted it to him in Miami.

Somewhere, there's a Patient Zero, and they might not necessarily be in China. That's just where it hit the hardest early on.

To avoid all Chinese people is as ridiculous as thinking there's a virus that knows your orientation (remember those days?).

[Squinch]

43. Yes, I do remember. I have an order of Chinese ribs every Thursday.

Not giving THAT up!

But the widening circle of cases from one person tells us how contagious this is.

[CaptYossarian]

45. Someone on TV once said the same cold germ has been going around for centuries.

You might get the same cold that George Washington or Napoleon once suffered from.

People really should start washing their hands. I know water is a new invention, but really.

[Squinch]

46. That's kind of a cool thought though.

[CaptYossarian]

48. Maybe a germ from Jefferson or JFK could attack Trump's brain.

There's plenty of room I there.

[LAS14]

37. A SEQUEL :

In less than 36 hours the total infected cases here in Westchester has gone from 8 to 17. The additional 9 came from a visit to the attorney after he got home, from a friend in White Plains who happened to be a MD. The MD and his fellow docs and their staff are all infected, and the whole Practice is now temporarily CLOSED. What a story.

[Texin]

41. For Arkansas Granny & JPak

The incubation period of this particular Coronavirus has not been definitively nailed down. The initial incubation was said to be from a couple of days to about 14. It's subsequently been changed, as people who were exposed to the virus (I believe the people under quarantine/observation were among those on that first cruise liner), have had symptoms appear some 28 or more days. Of course, that might simply mean that they were exposed to another person(s) who were infected but asymptomatic after they were released from quarantine.

Right now, my working premise is that anyone I meet or see wherever I am is a carrier or about to develop obvious symptoms of the disease, and that anything and everything I touch is contaminated with this virus. I know it sounds crazy, but maybe everyone needs to adopt that working premise. This is a little bit extreme, but right now in the Dallas area, pollen counts are high and rising higher, and anyone who suffers from seasonal allergies, and those who simple colds, etc., are sneezing and coughing.

[Ms. Toad]

47. Nothing to see here . . . move along.

COVID 19 is just a figment of our imagination. No worse than a common cold.

, in case I need it.

[gldstwmn]

53. I'm supposed to go to California in a few

Weeks and I'm honestly afraid to go.