MATH From: American Hospital Association "Best Guess Epidemiology" for #codiv19 over next 2 months:

[kpete]

96,000,000 infections
4,800,000 hospitalizations
1,900,000 ICU admissions
480,000 deaths

vs flu in 2019:

35,500,000 infections
490,600 hospitalizations
49,000 ICU admissions
34,200 deaths

Link to tweet

?s=20

[BusyBeingBest]

1. Horrifying.

[JWMF]

52. "Self-quarantined in Seattle"

I live in Seattle. This is an extremely serious pandemic, but the slide is bogus. The title of “Best Guess ...” Would never be used by anyone in the scientific community and the term “epi curve” ... doesn’t exist, it’s actually called epi wave. It was probably created by someone with good intentions to wake people up, but it’s absolutely not a real document.

Stay away from large gatherings of people, social distance as much as possible, hydrate often, take your vitamins, don’t touch your nose, eyes or mouth unless you’re at home and have already washed your hands. Wash your hands often, for at least 20 seconds, don’t forget your nails and wrists.

You are most likely not going to die from this, but the life you save, may just be someone you love.


Best of luck everyone, stay safe and make good choices,
Self-quarantined in Seattle

[customerserviceguy]

54. Welcome

and thanks for your well-thought out post.

We're hunkering down here in SC, there will be no part of the US safe from this. All the best to you during this trying time.

[Nonhlanhla]

2. much of this could have been prevented

if we had had a actual president. WHERE ARE THE TEST KITS?!!!!

[Blues Heron]

3. How does this square with what happened in China?

are they on the way to 300,000,000 cases?

[NickB79]

49. They employed draconian measures

And locked down 500 million citizens to stem the spread.

[customerserviceguy]

55. We'd never do that

for a variety of reasons, including a chief executive who tells people to go to work sick.

[muriel_volestrangler]

4. In 2015, the USA only had 94,837 ICU beds

https://www.sccm.org/Communications/Critical-Care-Statistics

That would mean having to get 20 patients per bed in just 2 months - 3 days per patient. I think they'd need longer than that; so 1.9 million in ICU is what would be needed, not what is achievable.

[BusyBeingBest]

6. Soon people will have to postpone elective surgeries,

patients will have to be extensively triaged for hospitalization--if this holds up. I hope it doesn't.

[defacto7]

7. True. And the lack of ICU availability could translate to a higher death rate.

Healthcare facilities and healthcare workers are THE priority right now.

[customerserviceguy]

57. If cities turn into

ghost towns, you're likely to have a greatly reduced rate of vehicle accident trauma, that may help a tiny bit.

[Strelnikov_]

12. That is the crux of the biscuit

In essence, if these figures hold out, we are talking 1.5 m+ dead in 2 months.

[Renew Deal]

5. Is that US or global?

[KentuckyWoman]

18. US only

[bucolic_frolic]

29. US only! That's like 1/3 of the population

Holy moley!

[Dale Neiburg]

38. Nearer 0.5% nt

[bucolic_frolic]

41. 96 million is .5% of the population?

I don't think so.

[Dale Neiburg]

46. No, 96 million is 1/3 of the population.

But according to the OP, that's estimated total infections, so 1/3 isn't surprising. I've sen estimates in the 40-50% range. I thought the 1/3 number was being applied to the death rate.

[bucolic_frolic]

47. Ah, we looked at if from different angles /nt

[SiliconValley_Dem]

72. Epidemiologists project between 40% and 70% of population will be infected at some point

Before there is a workable vaccine

[Hortensis]

58. That was my first question, so thanks.

I didn't find the figures on quickish search.

[klook]

8. (UPDATED) Looks like a lot of people who should be hospitalized won't be,

so there won't be 4.8 million hospitalizations. There won't be enough beds.


On edit: After looking up info on hospital beds, I see my assumption is not necessarily correct. There are a little over 900,000 hospital beds in the U.S., so we certainly couldn't accommodate 4.8 million patients at the same time. But if we can reduce transmission rates, we can keep the simultaneous cases at a lower level.

This illustrates the vital importance of preventative measures such as quarantine, self-isolation, and diligent anti-viral cleaning. We can't stop the virus in its tracks, but with a concerted group effort we can blunt the impact somewhat.

With pathetic leadership at the Federal level, this is easier said than done.

[KentuckyWoman]

20. That's the point of containment measures.

I'm not one for general panic, but if they can just get the general public to take the same self protection precautions we should be doing every day to start with... it will slow things down. That's the real ticket it seems... just slow it down so the medical people can tread water so to speak...

I'm an old lady praying I don't have something big old lady wise in the middle of all this that requires a doctor.... any doctor.

[klook]

23. Yes, agreed.

That’s why measures like closing borders — or worse, stunts like wearing a gas mask to a session of Congress and pretending this virus is a Libtard hoax — are ineffective.

Listen to the scientists and behave accordingly should be everyone’s mantra.

Lots of us are hoping other health problems leave us alone until this thing is under control. Best of luck to you and to us all.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

73. Actually we are past containment. Japan and Taiwan managed it

But this thing has been spreading for some time and in no way even quantifies or contained. All US officials and private sector can only take measures to slow down the spread such that our infrastructure can manage the cases needing hospitalization.

[Fla Dem]

40. Even with reducing transmission rates, doubtful there will be enough medical personnel

to care for all those people. Medical personnel will be among those needing hospitalization.

[LAS14]

9. My daughter-in-law is an ICU physician and is furious...

.... because there is no plan in place (no plan to make a plan!!). So maybe they figure they'll be the exception that proves the rule and will have enough beds...

[uponit7771]

10. K&R, Red Don will say math sucks and M$M will repeat it

[LAS14]

11. Does anyone know why an attack like this goes away? The OP says...

... "community EPI wave 2 months." Why doesn't it just last forever? If it's because summer is coming, why is Florida getting cases?

tia
las

[gristy]

14. When people get better (and are no longer contagious) while infecting less than 1 other person

on average when then are contagious. When that happens it does indeed peter out. The difficulty is making that happen...

[Maru Kitteh]

36. I don't think we can count on this one to "peter out." I think it's more likely this is a new

influenza-type disease; globally endemic, that will present an ongoing challenge. We have an influenza season that varies somewhat from year to year, but influenza cases never drop to zero at any time. It simply waxes and wanes, and we do our level best to keep up with vaccinations that stupid freaking idiots make all manner of excuses not to get - but that's another topic altogether.

[gristy]

37. Yes. Our only disagreement might be simply on the definition of my technical term

"peter out".

[Hortensis]

59. And recurrent waves will occur until vaccination becomes widespread. nt

[defacto7]

62. I think it already has been determined to be a new cyclical

resperatory disease that will go around every year like H1N1. They're saying it will probably be added to the yearly vaccine regime.

[KentuckyWoman]

21. No - it means the wave moving through any one place is about 2 months.

In other words... once it hits the office/school/factory/apartment building you live/work in ... count on about 2 months for the level of new cases to start coming back down.

At least that's my understanding... someone correct me if I'm wrong.

[Claritie Pixie]

44. Not sure if it will ever go away. It may be among us indefinitely.

Watched an interview with an Infectious Diseases expert and he is concerned it may not wear itself out. Coronaviruses that cause the common cold are with us from year to year.

There's no evidence so far that warmer weather will stop it.

[OhNo-Really]

70. This graphic supports slowing down

https://flic.kr/p/2iBAwwB

Click to view

[gristy]

13. R0 in China never exceeded 1.5. And it is much lower now.

Why these folks use an R0 of 2.5 here is beyond me.

[klook]

15. Explanation of R0 for the Great Washed*

-- such as myself:
https://vitals.lifehacker.com/what-is-the-coronaviruss-r0-and-why-does-it-matter-1841264885

*I use the term "Great Washed" rather than "Great Unwashed," since so many of us are washing our hands way more often and way more thoroughly than usual.

R0 is one of the numbers epidemiologists use to describe how an infectious agent spreads through a population. But it’s important to remember that it’s simply a statistic that describes some of the numbers we see. It’s not a rating of how scary a virus is, nor does it dictate how deadly a disease is or how difficult it might be to contain. We need more information for that.

The basic idea is this: the average sick person, in a totally susceptible population, must be able to get at least one other person sick (R0 = 1) for the disease to spread. If a disease spreads to fewer than one person, on average, an outbreak can’t happen.

So, all epidemics involve something with an R0 of more than 1. Seasonal flu has an R0 of around 1.2. Measles has one of the highest R0 numbers, although it’s hard to pin down an exact number: 12 to 18 is typically cited. Many diseases, from the terrifying to the mundane, exist in the 2-7 range: Ebola, HIV, the common cold. The Guardian has a chart here that compares the R0 of several well known infectious agents, if you’re curious.

There are some important caveats about this number. First, it represents what happens in a population that is completely susceptible. Nobody has been vaccinated; nobody has had time to develop immunity. And second, it says nothing about how fast the disease will travel, just how many people it will eventually infect.

More at link: What Is the Coronavirus's R0 and Why Does It Matter? (Lifehacker)

Also see this 2018 Video from a Penn State epidemiology course:

[uponit7771]

16. Then why did they quarantine 750 million people? Thx in advance

[gristy]

17. They did that because the R0 was 1.5

The quarantine has been effective in greatly reducing that number, and as a result there are far fewer cases and deaths in China today than there would have been without it.

[uponit7771]

24. They are still in shut down now, they are not out of quarantine I know this from first

... hand accounts.

That there are still people getting it in China sounds dangerous after two months.

[dalton99a]

19. +1. Estimated mean R0 for the Spanish flu is 2

Seasonal flu has an R0 of 0.9 – 2.1, with a mean of 1.3; the R0 of the 1918-1919 pandemic-causing Spanish flu is estimated to have ranged from 1.4 – 2.8, with a mean of 2.

https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/public-health/100-years-after-spanish-flu-lessons-learned-and-challenges-future

There are a lot of assumptions and guesses that go in the formula:

R0 ~ (infection/contact)(contact/time)(time/infection)

More specifically:

R0 = transmissibility (i.e., probability of infection given contact between a susceptible and infected individual) TIMES the average rate of contact between susceptible and infected individuals TIMES the duration of infectiousness.

[Recursion]

64. 50% of the Kirkland staff are now symptomatic

That sounds more like 2.5 than 0.7

[gristy]

68. For communities of individuals in such close proximity, R0 will indeed be higher

The data isn't showing an R0 of 2.5 for the population at large. The goal is to lower R0 for all communities so that the R0 for the population at large (that is, the average R0, which is what they've used in this model) is as low as possible. By social distancing, hand washing, not touching the face, quarantine, etc. All the stuff they've been talking about.

[JudyM]

22. Their CFR of .5% doesn't square with WHO's CFR, much lower.

[defacto7]

67. I just scratched my comment. There's a much better explanation down thread.

[JudyM]

71. Link?

[Hugin]

25. But, but, but... Old Yeller's economics tv guy said the viral spread was contained!

or was that the spread of test kits? I forget.

[Grasswire2]

30. "Old Yeller" hahahahahahah!!!!

EXCELLENT

[Alsteen]

26. Don't forget

The only reason that the Spanish flu ended was that it killed everyone on earth that it could...

[gristy]

35. Not quite. Once enough of the general population was immune,

after having caught and survived the Spanish flu, that in addition to those who could never catch it because they were already immune, there was enough herd immunity to stop the epidemic. So there were still plenty who could have been sickened by it but never caught it.

Wikipedia tells me that the Spanish flu infected 27% of the world's population.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

[beachbumbob]

27. numbers, models, statisics and forecast. Many assumptions but the fell is worse case scenario

and we have good reason to be concern with Nero fiddling while watching Rome burn in the Whitehouse


brings back Book of Revelations and the anti-christ feel right?

[AllyCat]

28. We don't have 1.9 M icu beds!!

[lutherj]

31. The source for this slide does not indicate the next 2 months, but rather

this seems to project a profile of the peak of the epidemic over a two month period. If you go to the link and scroll down you will see the slide shot and disclaimers. This may be splitting hairs, but might as well be accurate.

Source:

https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-us-hospitals-preparing-for-millions-of-hospitalizations-2020-3


“AHA webinar
The slide does not give a particular time frame.

The slide represents "his interpretation of the data available. It's possible that forecast will change as more information becomes available," a spokesman for Nebraska Medicine told Business Insider in an email.

The American Hospital Association said the webinar reflects the views of the experts who spoke on it, not its own.”

[beachbumbob]

33. such studies and models and webinars been done for years. The outcome is all the same

the WORLD is not prepared to handle any pandemic as we don't have the capital to undertake worse case preparation of building a massive medical infrastructure as well as having the talent to be ready when one may hit.

It is what it is and best case to be personally prepared for such events when it comes about. If you have to honker down for a month, be ready to do so

[appalachiablue]

43. A month or several months ok but the idea of a year

looks pretty weird although the alternative is far worse..

[lutherj]

48. My point is that Seth Brannon misrepresents his source. This is not a projection for the next

2 months. The numbers are a projection for a two-month duration at the peak of the epidemic in the US. It could happen this summer, a year from now, or not at all.

Of course everyone should take precautions and stock up sensibly on medicine and food. But don’t run out and fill up your pickup truck with toilet paper.

http://theconversation.com/a-toilet-paper-run-is-like-a-bank-run-the-economic-fixes-are-about-the-same-133065

[beachbumbob]

56. My best friend is a CEO at a good size hospital in the midwest and he verified these

numbers are more correct than not when risk assessments are down concerning pandemic impacts. All hospitals do such planning. So the prognosis is more correct and valid than not. My friend and his top people are not sleeping too well at the moment knowing what the future may bring them


like any models, they are models but there is valid data with in

[defacto7]

66. Thank you.

[Cousin Dupree]

32. Meantime Pence gets himself as much media coverage as he can by running around the country

meeting with “important people”. And the general public desperately needs guidelines on what to do if they suspect they are ill, how and when to self-isolate, how to contact health care providers, etc etc. etc. This is what you get when you put an uninformed politician in charge of something he knows nothing about. Disgusted beyond words.

[enki23]

34. That's optimistic. Hospitalization rate thus far has been nearly twice that

.

[usaf-vet]

39. There was a time when military medics would be called into service. But the medical corp in

the military has been so downsized to accommodate privatization of the military's medical services that can't be an option now. Civilian practitioners are not going to fill the gap.

[SunSeeker]

42. Wow!

[spanone]

45. As our 'president' lies to Americans daily about this very virus

[JWMF]

50. I live in Seattle, the pandemic is Real ... this slide is bogus, here's why!

I live in Seattle. This is an extremely serious pandemic but the slide is bogus. The title of “Best Guess ...” Would never be used by anyone in the scientific community and the term “epi curve” ... doesn’t exist, it’s actually called epi wave. It was probably created by someone with good intentions to wake people up, but it’s absolutely not a real document.

Stay away from large gatherings of people, social distance as much as possible, hydrate often, take your vitamins, don’t touch your nose, eyes or mouth unless you’re at home and have already washed your hands. Wash your hands often, for at least 20 seconds, don’t forget your nails and wrists.

You are most likely not going to die from this, but the life you save, may just be someone you love.


Best of luck everyone, stay safe and make good choices,
Self-quarantined in Seattle

[smirkymonkey]

53. K&R

[Brainfodder]

60. Learned nothing from South Korea's fine method?

Car wash style, patient(s) stay in vehicle, questionaire, check vitals, and treatment and/or escalation as required, for anyone who drives in, no cost!

I am already hermit-lite enough!

[fleabiscuit]

61. Science Friday...

Science Friday
Looking To The Genome To Track And Treat The New Coronavirus
17:18 minutes

Scientists have sequenced the genome of the novel coronavirus from two patients in Washington state. Here's how the genetic information can help treat the illness.

https://www.sciencefriday.com/segments/genome-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR2EIS2Ci7Ko6hbX0jEjZqF6efxb5vDJVKkgK-LrA8GKdCZWTUvbRB45lcc

[Recursion]

63. We have 980K hospital beds total, including the VA system

So, twice as many hospitalizations as there are hospital beds.

[KentuckyWoman]

69. I do believe the goal is to not have all of them hit the hospitals simultaneously.