General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsI'm feeling better about Coronavirus than I have in days. Am I justified?
When Anthony Fauci, Director of NIAID (the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases) makes a point, I listen. I have seen him contradict Trump within minutes at a press conference (famously about the required time to perfect a vaccine, or yesterday after Pence made a muddled response to the question of the elderly taking cruises, he diplomatically corrected him).
Trump is so hot-to-trot to point out the mortality rate estimates omit unreported cases of the virus, that he pushes the that claim several times in one presser. Bullshit, right?
But when Fauci says it, I listen, and he believes it may even be below 1%, not the 3.4% projected by the World Health Organization, or even the 2% average touted by many others.
Then CNN had on another doctor, Doctor Jeremy Faust, an Emergency Medicine Physician at Brigham and Women's Hospital who wrote about estimating mortality the rates for Slate. He said the quarantined The Diamond Princess provided an "unfortunate laboratory" to estimate the mortality rate by having a more accurate denominator (which would have been unreported/unknown cases). He also claimed the mortality rate in South Korea was only .06%:
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=2808318612580374
(Now Faust was on Smerconish (who has a deinite opinion on the issue fo the virus's mortality rate.)
Am I right to feel better????
mshasta
(2,108 posts)We are just getting started
we need more information to make a better estimate.
drray23
(7,619 posts)It is the fact many have to be hospitalized and it will overwhelm the system. Thus will lead to others who have non Covid-19 issues having problems getting care and the economy to crash.
skip fox
(19,356 posts)I don't deny that, from a social-historical perspective, you're right.
Chainfire
(17,474 posts)I am a member of the white hair bunch too, with my share of age related issues. My wife is diabetic.
I wonder how representative the cruise liner is of the society in general. One thing that comes to mind is that they are are people with sufficient funds to take a cruise. That fact may or may not indicate that hey have better health care and therefore better health than the population at large. Too damn many variables, and too few facts to make reasonable judgement at this time.
Of course everyone wants to play with numbers, so here is a set: Six cases in Florida, two deaths. Sounds like a 33.3 percent death rate. Accurate statistics will not be available for years, if ever, until then, they need to be taken with a grain of salt.
In any case, we know people are dying from this flu. We don't know what, if any, long term effects the survivors will suffer. Playing with numbers to sugarcoat the illness is bullshit at this time.
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)... down cause this isn't the common cold.
People are only looking at mortality rate as if that's the only bad part of this contagion
pnwmom
(108,959 posts)I know a doctor who said his hospital was having trouble getting them.
at140
(6,110 posts)And best thing to do is prevention. And the best prevention is avoid touching face after touching anything others have touched. That alone will be more effective than anything else. It will not only reduce risk of covid-19 but also of the common flu and cold which has infected thousand times more people this season.
RKP5637
(67,089 posts)We don't know the rate. It could also higher than 3.4%.
It definitely is in Iran
TwilightZone
(25,430 posts)and the number of people who never have symptoms and are never tested, that statement is an opinion, not a fact.
The real rate may never be known, but it is unquestionably lower than known deaths divided by known cases.
JCMach1
(27,553 posts)That's where we are. even 2% is way worse than Influenza.
The prospect I find most frightening though is that this will now be a permanent fixture like the cold, or influenza that mutates every year...
TwilightZone
(25,430 posts)We don't know the number or ratio of unknown cases. The 2% figure is based on known deaths/known cases. Add any number of unknown cases to the denominator and the percentage drops. If unknown cases are equivalent to known cases, for example, the figure is 1%.
Math, with made-up numbers:
Let's say known cases are 20,000
Let's say known deaths are 2% of that, 400.
400/20,000 = 2%.
If unknown cases are 20,000, same as known cases:
400/40,000 = 1%.
Every mortality figure that ignores unknown cases (which can't be accurately known at the moment) is higher than the real number if the number of unknown cases is higher than zero. Which it obviously is.
AlexSFCA
(6,137 posts)58Sunliner
(4,372 posts)GemDigger
(4,305 posts)The US is not one of those aggressive countries. That is what worries me.
pnwmom
(108,959 posts)that were attributed to other causes . . . especially since the deaths are concentrated among old people and sick people who are unlikely to have autopsies.
BusyBeingBest
(8,052 posts)in some countries, including the US. It could be that lots of us will be carrying the virus, and only a relative few actually get sick or die, but there's no way to know without widely-increased testing. Also, there are apparently different strains, which complicates the mortality rate figures.
Response to skip fox (Original post)
dawg This message was self-deleted by its author.
TwilightZone
(25,430 posts)Once we learned that people who get it may never display symptoms, all of those rates went out the window, especially if that number is comparable to or higher than that of known symptomatic cases.
I think some are being much too alarmist, and I also believe that some are being much too optimistic (Trump) when looking at the situation from a worldwide perspective. I think the preferable reaction to the virus lies somewhere in the middle. Take precautions but don't panic and don't confuse conjecture and worst-case scenarios with what's realistic.
Turin_C3PO
(13,912 posts)that Ive read sources I consider to be very reliable stating that up to 40% of the population could get infected before this is said and done. That leaves the potential for millions of dead people. Sure, it might be a worst-case scenario. But its best to be very prepared and to act with appropriate precautions, as you say.
TwilightZone
(25,430 posts)They're simply false, yet few want to acknowledge that, including the experts who are quoting them. Every time they're posted, it should be accompanied by a massive disclaimer indicating that because of unknown cases, we really have no idea. Because that's the truth.
If the rates are false, all of the projections based on those rates are false, perhaps drastically so.
I don't mean to downplay the potential. I just think that it does no one any good to quote rates (and projections based off of them) that we clearly know aren't true. There's enough legitimate concern, as you noted, without the need to sensationalize it. I don't buy into the "scare the shit out of people to get them to pay attention" camp. I think it's more useful for them to get realistic information.
ooky
(8,908 posts)"May be" tells me he doesn't know, and I once had a virus nearly kill me. So until they have a handle on it and the news is encouraging, I won't feel better.
skip fox
(19,356 posts)I was deeply depressed yesterday (esp. after hear a projected 10-15% mortality rate for the elderly with underlying problems, which fits me exactly.
So these two reports give me a glimmer of hope that it won't be a bad as projected, though I'm still taking precautions. (Just not as much anxiety today.)
ooky
(8,908 posts)If you haven't seen my OP from last night, this may also help you to prepare.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213054263
I wonder had I done some of these things if I could have saved myself a lot of trouble my last virus caused for me. I was doing nothing but hoping it would go away. After several days of persistent high fevers and killer chills, that virus attacked my spleen, and caused it to rupture and I nearly bled out internally. When they found it, doctors gave my family a 50% chance they could save me the night I nearly passed. I was incredibly lucky to survive that ordeal. Viruses are the real deal.
I was 59 then, 67 now. Now, when I see something like this, I take it very, very seriously. It sounds like you are doing the right thing to get prepared. I would say you need that, we all need that, and luck, because it appears to me this virus is easy to catch and can be a nasty one.
dawg
(10,621 posts)and only a quarter or so of the country gets exposed, then the number of American deaths should be limited to around 375,000 or so.
If that's better than what you were originally thinking, then, yes, maybe you're justified in being less worried.
skip fox
(19,356 posts)I'm 73 with 2 heart attacks, a 4-way bypass, and a lung operation (benign).
I'd heard estimates of a 10-15% rate for people like me.
dawg
(10,621 posts)Otherwise, it'll be pretty bad for the country. Not completely devastating, but it may as well be so for thousands of families and loved ones.
For what it's worth, things could easily go better or worse. We just don't know. Lot's of people feel that this will just blow over like so many other panics before. But there is currently no good basis for believing that other than a "hunch" or a "feeling".
The more recent numbers coming from China, if they can be believed, are somewhat reassuring. But then again, they essentially locked down huge swaths of their country for weeks. We aren't doing that, and it is at least possible that it is already too late to do so.
TwilightZone
(25,430 posts)But we really have no idea. No one does. Until we have a better understanding of how many people get it and never have symptoms (and are never tested) or get it and aren't contagious (no clue at present), we don't have any idea what the real mortality rate is. What we do know is that most of the rates being tossed about are too high because they don't factor in unknown cases. They can't until someone comes up with a solid ratio of known/unknown. Donald Rumsfeld? (Sorry, bad joke)
Are you at higher risk? Of course, and you're aware of that, just like you're aware that you're at higher risk for flu or pneumonia or other age/history related ailments. For the most part, it just means that you'll have to be more vigilant and aware of precautions, etc. I think your OP is a happy medium - concern and awareness, but not unnecessary panic.
Response to skip fox (Original post)
JenniferJuniper This message was self-deleted by its author.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)bad as the impression one gets from the constant media reports, discussion groups, etc.
We still have to be cautious, otherwise we can make it worse. But, I'm not getting the feeling masses of people are going to die.
Definitely don't feel trump knows what the heck is going on.
I am really concerned about people who work in restaurants, hotels, movie theaters, and the like. I think they have more exposure to the virus, and will suffer economically from people staying away.
unc70
(6,109 posts)We, the IT industry, worked our tails off for 2-4 years to prevent the problems that would have arisen otherwise. We were vigilant, proactive, and very competent across the whole industry. The threat was not overblown, and it was no accident that the nightmare scenarios did not happen.
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)Hoyt
(54,770 posts)That sounds a lot like the bird flu, SARs, etc., at worse. We made it through that. If conditions change, well we'll stay inside.
But, please, if it makes you feel better . . . . . .
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)Of course there are only 3,500 dead they acted at faster than lighting speed and put people in their houses backed by armed soldiers in the streets in less than 2 weeks after reporting genetic sequence to WHO.
That's not going to happen here
The genetic sequence for CV19 was reported to WHO on Jan 12 and we still don't have more than 10 million WHO spec test out yet.
America's government response to this virus is less than adequate to contain anything.
This is from mid Feb - https://www.npr.org/2020/02/18/806918693/as-china-tries-to-slow-coronavirus-spread-ripple-effects-continue
Do you think since it was only 3,500 Chinese dead that means it's not as bad as quarantining 760 million people and crashing the second largest GDP in the world?
Also, do you know what the infection rate is yet?
No, it's worse than RO of 2 though based on what US is reporting and we don't have test kits yet !!
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)get to a hospital, they will do well.
Sure, there are lots of unknowns, but there is really not much you or I can do except for a few precautions.
Worry and anxiety puts us at greater risk.
uponit7771
(90,304 posts).. but right now since we both agree ... this is different ... we should take different actions.
stillcool
(32,626 posts)I believe it may not be. Neither matters. The reality is that we don't know.
HarlanPepper
(2,042 posts)uponit7771
(90,304 posts)AncientGeezer
(2,146 posts)uponit7771
(90,304 posts)FENG: She's saying, "our manager called student interns to work during the outbreak, but there were only seven or eight left so they called in all the other workers as well."
We've heard this from dozens of workers from these two companies. These student workers are basically just poorly paid students from vocational colleges, but they'll need to go back to school soon.
KING: In the meantime, 760 million people are under one form of lockdown or another. How is the Chinese government managing to pull that off?
FENG: There are various apps that require people to self-report their travel history and itinerary. I've filled those out before. China's state telecoms can also track where your phone goes. But the methods are largely low-tech - these millions of people who knock on doors, take your temperature daily and make sure that you're not wandering outside more than you need to.
HarlanPepper
(2,042 posts)I was speaking more to the Costco panic buyers carting pallets of water and toilet paper out of stores. The toilet paper part of it is especially baffling to me, unless people are worried about shitting themselves to death.
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)abqtommy
(14,118 posts)may be dire but after knowing this we can focus our energy on the preventive and treatment options
that also become more numerous by the day. We can and will survive and help others to do the same
and I admit this approach makes me feel better too.
hamsterjill
(15,220 posts)The two strain theory makes sense to me, one being much more lethal than the other. Im not ready to feel better until we understand what is going on and I have NO confidence in anything this administration - or anyone connected with it, which Fauci is - has to say. Fauci defended Trump quite vigorously last weekend saying that Trump was not stifling what the experts were to say or not say. I dont believe that.
Im sorry to be such a downer, but Im pissed at the way this has been handled.
uppityperson
(115,677 posts)For those it is serious for, it's quite serious and dealt deadly.
bronxiteforever
(9,287 posts)The South Korean figure along with the Netherlands and Switzerland show mortality rates below 1%. That is very positive.
Italy has a 3.8% mortality rate and I dont understand the why behind that figure.
I trust the science and it will give us a clearer picture and then we will know. I hope you are right.
The main concern I have is for the older sick folks or just sick. My nephew has brain cancer and is set for a life saving operation in California in two weeks. He is in his early 30s and married just one year ago. The pressure that poor family is under is just horrible. Outside of finding out about a devastating diagnosis, they now have to contend with this virus.
Also will our hospital system survive if it is overwhelmed. Just think about having a heart attack or a car accident and the er and icu cant handle you promptly. Lots of unknowns here unfortunately.
FM123
(10,053 posts)In our county (Broward in South FL) they told us very little and refused to give any detailed information - we have no idea who or where the new patients are and if they had contact with the general public like in a nursing home, hotel, school etc. This is the opposite of NYC where they seem much more transparent.
https://cbs12.com/news/local/broward-county-officials-hold-news-conference-on-coronavirus-updates-in-the-county
Totally Tunsie
(10,885 posts)to contact health authorities if we've been exposed to her.
There's just one flaw in the system: For privacy reasons, we're not being told of the woman's identity or location. How do we know if we've been exposed if we don't know who she is? She could be the counter person at the dry cleaners, the waitress who served our dinner last night, or the manicurist who just did our nails...we have no idea.
Books_Tea_Alone
(253 posts)For two reasons that stand out on the surface:
1. Those countries have paid sick leave which we do not. People will go to work when they are ill.
2. Their governments reacted quite differently. The population was tested and mandatory quarantines were implemented way ahead of where we are right now.
3.The schools were closed immediately. I am a teacher and when I glanced up at a random point yesterday 9 kids had their hands in their mouths, three were picking their noses and two had hands in their pants. They cough & sneeze into the air. We are down to our last bottle of sanitizer and I cannot leave the classroom to wash my hands whenever I want. My students have severe special needs and cannot go wash their hands alone. We are always down staff and we would be in the bathroom all day long which would pose a risk to the ratio of kids left in the classroom. I believe the schools are the new front line and they need to be closed immediately.
mshasta
(2,108 posts)Our schools should have being closed down, or it least provided them with sanitation of classrooms, extra help for special need children, our teachers have families too, America is not taking the necessary precautions, why? Because of big government is not going to tell me what to do type of mentality and if Im sick so what
empedocles
(15,751 posts)customerserviceguy
(25,183 posts)dangerously close to Trump's hunch about the fatality rate. Maybe that's where he got it from.
WhiteTara
(29,693 posts)thereby slowing the spreading rate of the virus. Clean hands are safe hands. Use hand sanitizers (you can make your own) and wear gloves to prevent you from inadvertently getting the virus on your hands from public spaces (handrails, door handles, etc) which you can keep in your car or bag.
I'm becoming very aware of the face touching thing and am changing that normal human habit. Do you think we touch our faces to remind us that we exist?
skip fox
(19,356 posts)I could be at the lip of the grand canyon with 350% panorama of nature, but if there is one face, even 50 yards away, the eye zeroes in on it like a heat-seeking missile.
Closer up, the human face has multiple terrains (visual provinces) which combine under a specific combination of emotion/thought/imagination/etc. to form a unique aspect.
How could we possibly keep our hands off?
(I'm improvising on your very interesting speculation.)
WhiteTara
(29,693 posts)much closer to the truth than mine.-----
skip fox
(19,356 posts)pnwmom
(108,959 posts)but only our face itches are bad itches these days!
skip fox
(19,356 posts)Perhaps we touch our faces three times more than simply to scratch an itch, couldn't there be philosophical-psychological reasons as well?
pnwmom
(108,959 posts)itch, but I know why mine do: histamines!
Raine
(30,540 posts)pat_k
(9,313 posts)...although, with the CDC testing debacle and delays, we may be closing the barn door after the horses have fled.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213048575
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)pnwmom
(108,959 posts)directly from COVID-19. It's about serious cases completely overwhelming the medical system, and beyond.
This is by a PhD biologist.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html
Liz Specht
@LizSpecht
I think most people arent aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to #COVID19 because they simply havent run the numbers yet. Lets talk math. 1/n
Lets conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits; Ill address implications later of under-/over-estimate. 2/n
We can expect that well continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts. 3/n
Were looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go. 4/n
As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely wont slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population. 5/n
What does a case load of this size mean for healthcare system? Well examine just two factors hospital beds and masks among many, many other things that will be impacted. 6/n
The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc). 7/n
Lets trust Italys numbers and assume that about 10% of cases are serious enough to require hospitalization. (Keep in mind that for many patients, hospitalization lasts for *weeks* in other words, turnover will be *very* slow as beds fill with COVID19 patients). 8/n
By this estimate, by about May 8th, all open hospital beds in the US will be filled. (This says nothing, of course, about whether these beds are suitable for isolation of patients with a highly infectious virus.) 9/n
If were wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that only changes the timeline of bed saturation by 6 days in either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by ~May 2nd. 10/n
If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until ~May 14th. 2.5% gets us to May 20th. This, of course, assumes that there is no uptick in demand for beds from *other* (non-COVID19) causes, which seems like a dubious assumption. 11/n
As healthcare system becomes increasingly burdened, Rx shortages, etc, people w/ chronic conditions that are normally well-managed may find themselves slipping into severe states of medical distress requiring intensive care & hospitalization. But lets ignore that for now. 12/n
Alright, so thats beds. Now masks. Feds say we have a national stockpile of 12M N95 masks and 30M surgical masks (which are not ideal, but better than nothing). 13/n
There are about 18M healthcare workers in the US. Lets assume only 6M HCW are working on any given day. (This is likely an underestimate as most people work most days of the week, but again, Im playing conservative at every turn.) 14/n
As COVID19 cases saturate virtually every state and county, which seems likely to happen any day now, it will soon be irresponsible for all HCWs to not wear a mask. These HCWs would burn through N95 stockpile in 2 days if each HCW only got ONE mask per day. 15/n
One per day would be neither sanitary nor pragmatic, though this is indeed what we saw in Wuhan, with HCWs collapsing on their shift from dehydration because they were trying to avoid changing their PPE suits as they cannot be reused. 16/n
How quickly could we ramp up production of new masks? Not very fast at all. The vast majority are manufactured overseas, almost all in China. Even when manufactured here in US, the raw materials are predominantly from overseas... again, predominantly from China. 17/n
Keep in mind that all countries globally will be going through the exact same crises and shortages simultaneously. We cant force trade in our favor. 18/n
Now consider how these 2 factors bed and mask shortages compound each others severity. Full hospitals + few masks + HCWs running around between beds without proper PPE = very bad mix. 19/n
HCWs are already getting infected even w/ access to full PPE. In the face of PPE limitations this severe, its only a matter of time. HCWs will start dropping from the workforce for weeks at a time, leading to a shortage of HCWs that then further compounds both issues above. 20/n
We could go on and on about thousands of factors # of ventilators, or even simple things like saline drip bags. You see where this is going. 21/n
Importantly, I cannot stress this enough: even if Im wrong even VERY wrong about core assumptions like % of severe cases or current case #, it only changes the timeline by days or weeks. This is how exponential growth in an immunologically naïve population works. 22/n
Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-informed complacency. Its wrong to assuage the public by saying only 2% will die. People arent adequately grasping the national and global systemic burden wrought by this swift-moving of a disease. 23/n
Im an engineer. This is what my mind does all day: I run back-of-the-envelope calculations to try to estimate order-of-magnitude impacts. Ive been on high alarm about this disease since ~Jan 19 after reading clinical indicators in the first papers emerging from Wuhan. 24/n
Nothing in the last 6 weeks has dampened my alarm in the slightest. To the contrary, were seeing abject refusal of many countries to adequately respond or prepare. Of course some of these estimates will be wrong, even substantially wrong. 25/n
But I have no reason to think theyll be orders-of-magnitude wrong. Even if your personal risk of death is very, very low, dont mock decisions like canceling events or closing workplaces as undue panic. 26/n
These measures are the bare minimum we should be doing to try to shift the peak to slow the rise in cases so that healthcare systems are less overwhelmed. Each day that we can delay an extra case is a big win for the HC system. 27/n
And yes, you really should prepare to buckle down for a bit. All services and supply chains will be impacted. Why risk the stress of being ill-prepared? 28/n
Worst case, Im massively wrong and you now have a huge bag of rice and black beans to burn through over the next few months and enough Robitussin to trip out. 29/n
One more thought: youve probably seen multiple respected epidemiologists have estimated that 20-70% of world will be infected within the next year. If you use 6-day doubling rate I mentioned above, we land at ~2-6 billion infected by sometime in July of this year. 30/n
Obviously I think the doubling time will start to slow once a sizeable fraction of the population has been infected, simply because of herd immunity and a smaller susceptible population. 31/n
But take the scenarios above (full beds, no PPE, etc, at just 1% of the US population infected) and stretch them out over just a couple extra months. 32/n
That timeline roughly fits with consensus end-game numbers from these highly esteemed epidemiologists. Again, were talking about discrepancies of mere days or weeks one direction or another, but not disagreements in the overall magnitude of the challenge. 33/n
This is not some hypothetical, fear-mongering, worst-case scenario. This is reality, as far as anyone can tell with the current available data. 34/n
Thats all for now. Standard disclaimers apply: Im a PhD biologist but *not* an epidemiologist. Thoughts my own. Yadda yadda. Stay safe out there. /end
Addendum: to anyone who found this useful or interesting, highly recommend you follow @trvrb who actually does modeling and forecasting for a living. This thread is a great place to start:
Trevor Bedford
@trvrb
Replying to @trvrb
If growth continues unabated, this cluster alone may be responsible for 1100 (210, 2800) active infections by March 10 and 2000 (370, 5000) by March 15. 5/7
Trevor Bedford
@trvrb
Replying to @trvrb
If growth continues unabated, this cluster alone may be responsible for 1100 (210, 2800) active infections by March 10 and 2000 (370, 5000) by March 15. 5/7
Jarqui
(10,122 posts)Sometime in May, there's a good chance that every serious case won't get hospital care because there will not be enough available beds.
Without the masks, supplies, controls, etc, how many scared medical people are going to go to their cottage for a couple of months to ride this thing out ?? How many will get sick and for how long? We could lose 3.4% of medical staff. Mortality rate over 60 doubles to about 7%, over 70 about 10%. The older doctors and nurses cannot be on the front lines.
"This is the most frightening disease I've ever encountered in my career."
Link to tweet
I do not think one can make light of this situation. This disease could kill millions.
Well, for a few hours today I got to feel what it was like to go about without doom echoing my every step.
pnwmom
(108,959 posts)skip fox
(19,356 posts)pnwmom
(108,959 posts)doc03
(35,300 posts)brain for medicine. Trump should have been a doctor instead of president, he would have found a cure for cancer years ago. Don't worry believe me.
pnwmom
(108,959 posts)Then he would have had access to a prescription pad, and he would had never been able to control himself, and he'd have ended up dead from an overdose or in jail.
Sigh.
58Sunliner
(4,372 posts)I don't know what kind of test they using. They certainly got out the testing early. Is it reliable? I hope so.
Totally Tunsie
(10,885 posts)Sorry.
skip fox
(19,356 posts)Peter J. Hotez, Dean for the National School of Tropical Medicine: Baylor College of Medicine, was just interviewd on CNN (or MSNBC) and he's still maintaining a mortality rate of 10-15%for those over 70 is likely.
pnwmom
(108,959 posts)a hospital bed because someone else was there with covid-19 -- there are going to be millions of uncounted extra deaths related to this disease.
Newest Reality
(12,712 posts)I don't and won't rely on any sources within yelling range of Trump, period. The credibility there is already compromised and the bias is expected to be within the narrow range of Trump's dictator attitude, regardless of who is reporting there. Fool me once...
I also won't rely on questionable online sources or conspiracy theories or Joe and Jane YouTube. Obviously, the Internet in the social sense is often a hysteria machine driven by argumentum ad populum and an illustration of what herd mentality looks like online.
There are a host of reliable sources of information that are science-based and knowledgeable, especially those that don't jump the gun and report and explain "what we know so far" rather than making any definitive statements, (which can be a warning sign). These are two new strains and we have to learn all we can as they emerge.
In that case, I am not relieved, nor do I panic. I am, however, very concerned, especially for my age group.
OrlandoDem2
(2,065 posts)We wont beat this if we keep up life as normal.
dewsgirl
(14,961 posts)across the globe, I hate to sound all doom and gloom, this is a rapidly declining situation. Trump being in control and refusing to test, is turning a bad situation into a severe catastrophe in the making, it is not getting better anytime soon. I am sorry...I hope I am wrong.
applegrove
(118,501 posts)want people in my life to get it. I don't know how long it will be here. I don't want so many victims everywhere. I wish they could find a treatment for it right away that would mitigate the worst cases. I go around in circles.