Can Democrats turn Texas blue?

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Texas has been one of the pivotal states in the current Democratic presidential primary. Joe Biden’s surprise win over Bernie Sanders in the Lone Star State was a key element in a Super Tuesday surge that has made him the front-runner for the nomination.

For all of its importance to Democrats in the primary, Texas has been more or less been written off in the general election for a generation. Republicans have carried the state in every presidential contest since 1980, often by substantial margins. Texas hasn’t had a Democratic governor or senator since the early 1990s. Both houses of the state legislature have been red for nearly 20 years.

Despite all this, Democrats have eyed Texas as a possible game changer for a long time. As the second most populous state, Texas carries an Electoral College payload that could fundamentally shift the balance of presidential power. “If Texas turns back to a Democratic state, which it used to be, then we’ll never elect another Republican [president] in my lifetime,” said Sen. John Cornyn of Texas. The state’s other senator, Ted Cruz, put it more bluntly: “If we lose Texas, it’s game over.”

Why there’s debate

Any hope Democrats have of flipping Texas starts with the state’s changing demographics. Its population is getting younger, more diverse and more concentrated in big cities — all indicators of a shift to the left. Optimists in the party believe Donald Trump’s adversarial politics may cause a combination of a surge in Latino turnout and a shift in support among center-right suburban voters that could give Democrats the numbers they need to win the state.

https://news.yahoo.com/can-democrats-turn-texas-blue-180624119.html

[muntrv]

1. Turnout, turnout, turnout.

[TexasBushwhacker]

7. Yes! Voter registration, GOTV and encouraging early voting

It seems like the problems (ie voter suppression) happen ON voting day, not during early voting. I think one if the best things the Dems could do is advertise early voting.

[TwilightZone]

2. Texas doesn't have party registration so it's difficult to tell raw numbers.

I have read reports that say that there are still an estimated one million more Rs than Ds in the state, so D turnout would have to be remarkable to overcome that for statewide races, if true. Trump got as many votes in the primary as the top four Democrats combined and he doesn't even really have an opponent.

Not that we aren't trying to overcome. The key goals are to continue to get Dems registered for November, improve our below-average turnout, especially among Latinos, and get out the vote.

[napi21]

3. I HOPE SO! I lived in San Antonio for 9 years quite so time ago. When I first moved there

Ann Richards was Governor. When she retired Shrub became Governor. Pubs were still ruling when we moved. I know a lot of people moved to TX from La. when they were flooded and they always have quite a few immigrants from Mx. Some become citizens and all the ones who were babies are now grown & hopefully registered to vote.

[MagickMuffin]

6. Actually Gov. Richards didn't retire, she didn't win her reelection.

Karl Rove started a whisper campaign that Ann was a lesbian among other political dirty tricks.

[TexasBushwhacker]

8. Ann knew she wouldn't get reelected when she vetoed the concealed carry

referendum. She knew it would cost her the election, but it was the right thing to do.

[napi21]

9. Sorry. It's been a LONG TIME. I guess I forgot. I still think Ann was the best Governor Texas

ever had. Hopefully they'll elect a Dem next election.

[SCantiGOP]

4. Texas going Democratic in 2020

Has obvious huge consequences for national elections going forward.

But, the GOP looking at being shut out of the White House for the foreseeable future might just be the one thing that could shock them into a re-evaluation of their racist, sexist and obstructionist approach to governing.
And that might have more positive long-term impact on this country than just winning the 2020 election.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Probably have to win the national popular vote by at least 8 points to drag Texas along

Preference is everything, not turnout. That state has 43% self-identified conservatives. States with higher than 37% conservatives do not vote Democratic in tight elections. It would have to be a semi-landslide.

This isn't a primary where voters are sensing the same thing at the same time and there can be massive late shifts among likeminded people. In a general election those rigid stacks of self-identified liberals and conservatives in each state dictate the outcome. Everything else is basically meaningless. You apply the national margin to each state and they spit out the logical result based on ideological split.