Coronavirus: Expert's worst-case scenario is 96 million infected in US with up to 500,000 dead

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

A doctor has advised hospitals to prepare for up 96 million coronavirus infections and 500,000 potential deaths as a worst-case scenario for the potential extent of the outbreak, leaked documents reveal.

The documents, obtained by Business Insider, come from a presentation made during a webinar hosted by the American Hospital Association (AHA).

Dr James Lawler, a professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Centre, shared a series of slides with attendees about what his "best guess" was when estimating how the outbreak could impact hospitals and health officials. His webinar, titled "What healthcare leaders need to know: Preparing for the COVID-19", was presented on 26 February.

He estimated 96 million could become infected, and of those people 480,000 could die from the coronavirus based on how the virus might spread.

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-experts-worst-case-scenario-224941707.html

I've heard elsewhere it could be as high as 3 million dead but even so the lower estimate of 500,000 is still way too many.

[dewsgirl]

2. Yes, I have seen much worse.

[bearsfootball516]

3. My guess is the actual fatality rate is significantly lower than what's been reported.

Because that death rate is only out of cases that were actually reported. It seems that people aged 40 and younger tend to not have problems fighting it off. I would bet that a LOT of younger people have actually already gotten it, felt crappy for a few days, then got over it. And since they never went to the hospital or doctor and got diagnosed with it, it goes unreported in the statistics.

[Drahthaardogs]

5. That is Trump logic. Italy is seeing a mortality rate

Exceeding 3%

[bearsfootball516]

6. I'm not saying that we shouldn't do everything to stop it.

Older people and those with compromised immune systems or underlying health issues should be extremely careful.

But as a young person (I’m 27) who is surrounded by other young people, the general consensus in my age demographic is “meh, it’s no big deal, I’ll fight it off if I catch it” because the mortality rate for young persons is minuscule.

[TwilightZone]

8. We don't know that unless they've tested everyone.

If they haven't and the mortality rate doesn't account for unknown cases (no symptoms and not tested), it's going to be high simply because the math is off.

Mortality rate most are using = deaths/known cases.

If one adds unknown cases to the denominator, the rate goes down. If they're not being included, the rate stated is higher than the actual.

[Chemisse]

9. The fact that Trump is using it to downplay the outbreak

Doesn't mean that it is not a possibility that the rate is lower.

Until tests (studies) can be run on full segments of populations where the disease is occurring, we won't know how many are harboring it but not getting sick. The death rate will then be adjusted accordingly.

[TwilightZone]

7. Agreed, since they don't know how many unknown cases there are or the ratio

of known/unknown cases.

That's my main issue with a lot of the reporting. We know that some are asymptomatic and may never be tested, so the mortality rates aren't accurate unless they can somewhat accurately estimate the number of unknown cases and include them in the calculations.

From what I've seen, that's not happening at all, so all the stated rates are inaccurate.

[genxlib]

10. That assumption may already be baked in to his estimate

If you do the math for 96 mil and 500k deaths, the fatality rate is around .5%

[Newest Reality]

4. Deal Leader

aka, the Orange Pinata says that it is no big deal don't worry. Contained!

I have also been reading some calculations that indicate the peak may not occur until late April, (again, only calculations) at about 1-billion cases globally. I am just mentioning that because Dr. President Wizard King thinks it will go away by then.