Let's step back, take a deep breath and review.

[Atticus]

(There is much information on the internet about the Covid 19 pandemic. This post is not meant to be a learned treatise on the subject. Though I will try to be as accurate as possible in stating information that I understand to be true and accurate, I will not be providing links for corroboration.)

As I've posted before, this coronavirus is not "just another type of flu". It has a fatality rate AT LEAST 20 times as bad as influenza.

An article written by an epidemiologist predicts that between 30 and 70 percent of the WORLD population over age 35 will eventually be infected and, of these, MILLIONS will die.

Epidemiologists also state that experience with past epidemics makes it likely that the number of people infected will DOUBLE every 6 to 7 days. This would mean a million Americans with Covid 19 by early May; two million a week after that; four million after the next week, and so on --- geometric progression. Unless serious action is taken YESTERDAY to interrupt this progression, our healthcare system will collapse.

And, while all this is happening---as the number of confirmed cases and deaths increase daily--- we are treated to the spectacle of Trump and Pence and Mnuchin and assorted paid-for fall guys telling us that, "thanks to President Trump" the coronavirus has been "contained".

As we read of sick people BEGGING to be tested--to no avail---we hear Trump assuring us that "anyone who wants to be tested" can be and "the tests are beautiful".

As we watch, the Trump regime is clowning their way through the biggest clusterfuck in American history. And, folks, a lot of us are not going to have to worry about global climate change. A lot of Americans will die in the next year because the arrogant ass in the White House is too ignorant, too power-mad and too greedy to tell us the truth about the danger we face and how we can best deal with it.

When lies lead to totally predictable deaths, the liars are criminals. Trump and company are criminals. That he continues to reside in the White House instead of a prison cell shames us in the eyes of the world now and will shame us in the eyes of our children and grandchildren when our apathy and cowardice are detailed in their history books.

Wash your hands, avoid crowds and take care of yourself because your government sure as hell isn't

[OceanChick]

1. Yep

Thanks for the reality check.

[defacto7]

2. Powerful statement

[Igel]

7. Undermined by mere facts.

The curve hasn't matched the "doubling every 7 days", which is the easiest prediction to test and is the real takeaway from such Truth-telling. (I tend to use "Truth" for revealed preachitruth or truthiness and "truth" for things that have the much less important feature of matching observational reality.)

The death rate's in flux--you pick your data set, you get your result. I tend to toss out the earliest data as non-representative. The numbers seem to converge on a rate far higher than the flu's mortality rate, but there's still variation.

The US data is sketchy, because the CDC protocol assumed that they knew the entry points and dates of the virus in the US and so they dismissed (as not meeting protocol requirements) a number of cases. Part of that was expert decision making (the protocol was pre-Trump, it needs to be pointed out), part was longer-standing regulation, part was reasonable interpretation of statute.

Even mortality by age cohort numbers, produced by a more cautious set of people, are still soft.

[Atticus]

8. I fear you have misjudged your audience. Saying "The curve hasn't matched the 'doubling every

seven days' " is, at this very early date, the equivalent of selecting one frame out of a candidate's video and saying it's bogus because it "doesn't look like him". DU readers are too smart to accept such assessments.

There is MUCH scientific evidence, based on experience with past epidemics or pandemics, that predicts a "doubling time" of between 6 and 10 days, with the lower numbers being mentioned more often. But, as you surely understand, this means the average doubling time over the course of the epidemic. Measurements over the course of shorter interim terms may show wide variations.

Your "facts" which supposedly "undermine" my post are just not relevant in assessing the doubling time I stated.

And, your characterization of my OP, which began with a statement that it was not intended as a "learned treatise", as a "preachitruth" was pure snark.

[uponit7771]

12. THIS !!!! Extrapolating peripheral data is meant to say what?! Even if its a tenth of that number it

... its still horrible.

Some are here to argue and be right not to progress a helpful narrative of be prepared.

[HarlanPepper]

9. +1000

I’m always intrigued by posts that begin with “let’s take a step back” and then proceeds to double down on alarmism. Pseudo experts are not what we need right now.

[Turin_C3PO]

10. Actual experts

are sounding the alarm on this virus. It’s no joke and could result in millions dead. Don’t believe the a Trump propaganda.

[uponit7771]

13. I'm more intrigued with post ignoring the fact that 10% of the human race is under quarantine & ...

...are hell bent on calling this issue the same as the other with nothing to back them outside of telling us to not believe our lying eyes.

[HarlanPepper]

15. Yeah

I’m holding the position that this response has been completely botched by the Trump admin and that it is an extremely hazardous world health crisis.

I do think that having watched some international news coverage on corona, especially the BBC (not the shitty BBC America version we get here on cable) the tone of the coverage leans more toward dissemination of important facts and information rather than whats being pumped out here.

In a nutshell, I’m interested in the we are all going to die scenarios, but am also interested in other POVs as well.

[Atticus]

14. Given the parenthetical statement which started my post, how do you conclude that I

claim to be an "expert", pseudo or otherwise?

Further, what part of my OP do you judge "alarmist"?

[uponit7771]

11. So what the curve hasn't matched doubling every 7 days. It can be .5 ever 14 & that's still horrible

... what kills me is the pettifogging to "not horrible, this is different" using peripheral data.

Anything that doesn't add to that isn't worth mentioning.

[jalan48]

3. K & R

[yaesu]

4. Been watching, reading about it since it first started to cross the news wires. Life as we know it

is about to change dramatically & not in a good way. This is definitely the worst crisis I have seen in my lifetime & I remember the Cuban missile crisis. What struck me like a brick today was hearing the report from ABC news about the adult care homes that residents are going from no symptoms to dying in the space of one hour.

tRumps news services, the post, NY mag, fox news are all pushing the "nothing to worry about" bs. Droves of twitter bots doing the same. They should all be bought up on murder charges.

[Renew Deal]

5. If Trump can take the credit for "containment", I'm sure he can take the blame if things go badly.

[Warpy]

6. It's not a pandemic. It has the potential to become one

so people need to start taking the advice in your last sentence seriously and put it into practice now, so it will be ingrained behavior in case the worst happens with this bug.

Hoarding anything at this point is the absolute height of stupidity, although I realize people are spooked and desperate to do something, and it doesn't matter much if it's the wrong thing. If you're going to buy a year's supply of something buy soap, the plain kind. It works. It also doesn't tend to go bad over time, so you won't feel like an idiot if this turns serious and you've used up what you hoarded now.

This can be quite serious. The death rate for people who are old like me is holding steady at about 15%. The epidemiology figures China has been sharing with us might not hold up in a country run by a self obsessed lunatic surrounded by fluffers. We have no functioning Executive Branch and state public health agencies are going to have to do their work in spite of them.

Wash your hands. Get in the habit of scratching your nose/eyes/mouth with the back of your wrist instead of your fingers. Cough or sneeze into your elbow and if you're not flexible enough, use your forearm. If you smoke, stop now and let your lungs heal as much as possible. And did I mention wash your hands?