We Are Watching the Probable Demise of Trump's Reelection in Real Time

[babylonsister]

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/were-watching-trumps-probable-election-demise-in-real-time.html


the national interest 12:27 P.M.
We Are Watching the Probable Demise of Trump’s Reelection in Real Time
By Jonathan Chait

snip//

Trump seemed totally oblivious to the danger of hardening his public image as the national-level equivalent of the mayor in Jaws, blithely ignoring reports of a gigantic shark because he didn’t want to hurt the tourism season.

Enough of the debacle has played out in public to supply Democrats with a campaign’s worth of damning video clips. Trump appeared in public insisting that the virus was “contained,” and that the number of cases “within a couple of days, is going to be down to close to zero.” Trump and his surrogates kept advising people to buy stocks after every dip. The strategy made no sense except as a desperation gambit to prop up the stock market on an hour-to-hour basis with dumb money from Trump’s marks.

For all the apparent durability of Trump’s personality cult, it is worth recalling that George W. Bush was once a figure of nearly equal stature on the right. He was the swaggering, flight-suit-wearing alpha male who had conquered Afghanistan and Iraq. The conservative media slathered over him in almost erotic terms. When things went south for Bush, after his failed attempt to privatize Social Security was followed by Hurricane Katrina and the unraveling of the Iraq occupation, they went south very fast.

It is possible that the public-health and economic catastrophes that loom so large at the moment will be gone by autumn. It is even possible that they will remain and Trump will somehow survive anyway. (After all, the mayor in Jaws had somehow retained his position in Jaws 2. And he was still minimizing shark risks!)

But it seems more likely that Trump has finally made his unfitness for office so blatant that even his own supporters will notice. The American economy, its health infrastructure, and perhaps more are plunging into foreseeable crisis. And every step Trump has taken along the way seems almost calculated to expose him to maximal blame. Trump is now quite likely to lose his reelection, and we will look back at the last few weeks as the time when he sealed his own fate.

[lame54]

1. Or a cancelled election

[TwilightZone]

2. States are in charge of elections.

Not happening.

[2naSalit]

4. +1

I've had to make this point several times now.

People need to get off the CT bandwagon.

[lame54]

9. Thank you for that...

I thought he had that power

I will quit bringing it up

[BComplex]

11. The Federal Gov't. can declare martial law anytime the president deems fit.

The elections might be that opportunity for trump to go Kim Jong-Un on us.

[TwilightZone]

13. Emergency powers don't cover state elections.

The Executive branch simply does not have the power.

Again, this is a Trump pipe-dream. We really should stop giving it oxygen.

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/RL32471.pdf

[BComplex]

14. I get your point, and I won't give it any more oxygen.

But I don't think that link applies to a pandemic or martial law to keep people under quarantine.

Just sayin'. We're in a whole new world since 2004. We never thought the law would permit a president to order a blanket defiance of subpoenas from the House investigators, and that it would stand.

[TwilightZone]

20. Martial law wouldn't matter, either.

Again, it's the states that are in charge. 50 state legislatures aren't going to agree to shut down elections just because Trump thinks they should.

[Moostache]

47. How many states have GOP governors? Does that matter now?

26 GOP
24 DEM
+ territories (5-1 DEM)

[exboyfil]

85. Red New England states make me nervous

[The Mouth]

91. Thank you!

God, I hate it when some fellow progressives are so stupid I really wonder if *THEY* should even be let near a polling place (I felt/reel the same way about people saying 'get rid or the electoral college). Fucking non reality based people embarrass me when they are also Dems

[Ponietz]

101. Seems now any of their crazy pipe dreams is just a 5-4 SCOTUS decision away

[Aristus]

21. It's important to remember that martial law doesn't mean the President gets to rule by

executive fiat, or that there are tanks and troops in the streets. That's Hollywood.

All martial law means is that military judges replace civilian judges in the criminal courts. That's it.

And despite 'martial law' being synonymous with draconian legal punishments, sometimes they can be quite practical. Hawaii was under martial law during World War II, and military judges handed down sentences for civil and criminal infractions. In the case of something like a speeding ticket, a judge might rule that the offender had to volunteer at a hospital, or donate a pint of blood for the war effort.

[geardaddy]

44. Interesting.

I wonder if Hawaii had been a state back then, if the Federal gov't would have had power to declare martial law. They probably could only do so since Hawaii was a territory.

[Duppers]

51. Ah...this?

"H.R. 5122, also known as the John Warner National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2007 was a bill passed in the United States Congress on September 29, 2006 and signed by President George W. Bush on October 17, 2006 becoming Public Law 109-364. In addition to allocating funding for the armed forces, it also gave the president the power to declare martial law and to take command of the National Guard units of each state without the consent of state governors.[19]"

https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2008/10/23/5081/think-again-the-invisible-battle-over-posse-comitatus/



I'm concerned.

[Under The Radar]

39. States that are Republican controlled will be happy to cancel.

[Duppers]

52. Then what'll we do? Not count them,

Let the blue States elected our new president.



Only halfway kidding here.

[Under The Radar]

57. Yea remember when Steven Colbert ....

...ran for president but only in the state of South Carolina?

[DENVERPOPS]

55. Short memory TZ

Do you recall 2000 gore vs bush ??????

[TwilightZone]

59. I don't recall an election being cancelled.

The topic is cancelling the election on a nationwide basis, not stopping a recount in one state. The Executive branch doesn't have the authority, and the SC isn't the Executive branch.

[DENVERPOPS]

64. Funny that

The Supreme Court and Dept of Justice and the Republican controlled Senate are seemingly all part of THIS "so called" executive branch, don't you think..........

[TwilightZone]

65. Which still makes it irrelevant.

Once again...the Executive branch does not have authority to cancel state-run elections.

It's not complicated. It's a Trump pipe-dream and we should stop giving it oxygen.

[DENVERPOPS]

70. They may not have the "authority"

It's not as if I don't understand your "point". But in todays world, Trump and Republicans have openly stated that they feel the constitution is an outdated, antiquated, obsolete, scrap of paper............AND thanks to DOJ-BARR there is no more rule of law or enforcement of any law against Trump or The Republican Party. (And, backing their plays, the Supreme Court that is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Republican Party.)

And they have been running rough shod over the constitution and the Rule of Law almost daily and not getting called on it for over three years

In the NET, they have proven beyond any doubt that they don't give a Rat's ass and continue to do anything they want, anytime they want, in anyway they want. Most recently, they "couldn't" remove an agency, so they t-boned it by totally defunding it. It doesn't matter what the law is, the net effect is our loss. And they go right on their merry way to do more of the same.

It's a whole new world as far as they are concerned................

I guess we will be able to know for sure, on Nov. 3rd or definitely on Nov.4th. Or who knows, maybe sooner the way things are going.

[LanternWaste]

97. Your precise argument was used in the Jade Helm melodrama.

[DENVERPOPS]

98. Get back to me on

November 4th...........

[not_the_one]

87. And a majority of states legislatures are republican controlled.

You don't think they will do as they are told?

[Fiendish Thingy]

29. Can't be cancelled, it's in the Constitution

How would TRump stop each of 50 states from holding their elections?

[DENVERPOPS]

100. How about

a vote in the Senate, followed by decision by the supreme court..........

How about the Impeachment??? We have already seen a complete travesty of justice by the U.S. Senate and the Dept.Of Justice......

[LiberalFighter]

31. The primary wasn't cancelled in Tennessee when the tornado hit.

[ace3csusm]

35. Once they declare national emergency

election is off ...

[sarisataka]

50. We currently have

33 active national emergencies going back to 1979.

Have we had an election since 1979?

[Duppers]

61. My fear is that's exactly what he'll do!!

The President may declare a state of emergency only when "the life of the nation is threatened by war, invasion, general insurrection, disorder, natural disaster or other public emergency" and if the ordinary laws and government powers are not sufficient to restore peace and order.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_Emergency_Act,_1997

[IronLionZion]

94. We must closing polling places in big cities and blue states

and only allow voting in rural areas and red states.

This is for security of course. We can't be too careful. If it saves even one child's life it's worth doing.

[Hoyt]

3. Or GOPers force trump out and run someone a bit less toxic, if there is such a thing.

[smb]

17. They Don't HAVE Anybody Less Toxic

The marginally rational ones like Romney have been cast out, and even if one of them did get back in after il Doofus vanished from the scene he'd be locked into a death match with the cray-cray faction that would make Joe-vs-Bernie look like a pillow fight.

[Wounded Bear]

24. They still have several that APPEAR less toxic, though...nt

[Bernardo de La Paz]

30. Then tRump would be only prez to be impeached AND resign or imp AND not run for re-election. . . nt

[mnmoderatedem]

86. they had their chance. They unequivocally embraced trumpism

way too late for them to reverse course.

And we need tattoo that indelibly on their foreheads. History is watching.

[procon]

5. I sure hope you're right.

I can't understand why anyone sees Trump as anything but what he is, an ignorant, braying ass. Looking at all his previous atrocities, I don't know if even the rising death toll from an unchecked pandemic is enough to make his believers see what he has done to the country.

[smb]

18. Nothing Will Make The Derplorables See Reason, However...

...the stock market and the larger economy going down the toilet are likely to convince the big-money people that Napoleon Boneyspurs must go.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

33. Another deplorable doesn't understand doubling or vaccines: (they will break quarantines)

We are like at early November for a flu season except NO vaccines. When infections with no resident immunities ("novel" viruses) spread they can double every second or third day. 12 doublings (maybe 24 or 36 days) would yield 2^12 = 4000 times as many deaths = about 90,000 deaths.

Many conservative sites, and conservatives on sites, are minimizing the virus.

This entire thing is massive FEAR MONGERING by the liberal media to try to make President Trump look bad in a Presidential election year. It won’t work.

In the USA this year ...
34 to 49 million people have had flu symptoms.
350,000 to 620,000 flu hospitalizations
64,000 people died of the flu.

So far, 22 people have died of the Coronavirus in the USA.
What is more important?
64,000 deaths from the flu or 22 deaths from the Coronavirus?

1,211 posted on 3/9/2020, 4:16:23 PM by Lions Gate

[procon]

36. The level of stupidity is enough to make me weep

or laugh hysterically, or maybe both.

[sprinkleeninow]

78. Napoleon Boneyspurs.... 😂

[northoftheborder]

90. "Napoleon Boneyspurs"!

new fav name

[Demovictory9]

6. I'm not so sure. he and GOP will do WHATEVER IT TAKES. Look for more voting laws

[customerserviceguy]

7. It depends

Will this coronavirus thing still be going on in October and early November? If it is over and done with by the end of summer, there will surely be some other issue taking its place.

One of the things that hurt Jimmy Carter was that the Iranian hostage crisis extended all the way from the initial act, all the way through the failed rescue mission, and into the election. Trump might not be that unlucky.

[smb]

19. Even If The Pandemic Abates, The Economy Won't Recover In Time To Save Him nt

[customerserviceguy]

23. He's counting

on shifting the blame to both "furreners" and underlings. Maybe even Pence.

[Ligyron]

67. Democrats

Don't forget the Democrats.

They always get us in there somehow...always

[erronis]

53. Look for massive tax rebates and handouts to the neediest.... Wall Street and corporatists.

[geardaddy]

49. Don't forget that Reagan dealt secretly with the Iranians

to keep the hostages in Iran until he was elected.

[customerserviceguy]

60. Certainly

but that was not widely known on Election Day 1980.

If something has overtaken the coronavirus crisis of 2020 by November, it will be much less of a factor in that election than it appears to be now. Two ways to run, unopposed, and scared.

[uponit7771]

8. He'll use this to call martial law, don't give him the botd

[pandr32]

10. Let it be so

Music to my ears as we sit at home avoiding people.

[tblue37]

12. His own supporters are still crowding together at rallies & claiming the corona virus

doesn't exist, or that it is no worse than the common cold.

[Chainfire]

15. Nothing has happened

So far, that would cause his base to desert him. Nothing has happened that would cause the Republican party to self destruct. They will dig their heels in and fabricate new lies and new excuses.

My hunch is that by late Summer, the markets will have stabled out, the flu will be old news and the Red Cap People will be singing Trump's praises for saving us from health and financial disasters.

If things get bad enough for the Republicans to bail on Trump, then we will probably have more serious problems than just Trump.

[Duppers]

66. " the **flu** will be old news" 😖

This pandemic should never be referred to as "THE FLU"** because before this it's over many hundreds in this country will have died, due in large part to Lump and his administration's inaction in testing. This pandemic is just now getting started.

Look at the exponential climb worldwide in cases and death rate:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


And in the U.S.:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/




**Sounds like Fox.

[OriginalGeek]

16. I wish I could believe this

but every trumper I know, and I know more than a few, loves him more and more every day. Absolutely denying he's done anything wrong and claiming any negative thing mentioned is just the hateful left making stuff up.

Every. Single. One.

[LiberalFighter]

32. It is good to be wary. But keep in mind his core gets smaller day by day.

A net 1,097 of his 2016 supporters are dying each day.

Each day more and more are turning away from him because of his behavior and positions.

I know of workers in a position controlled by Republicans that despise him.

This all adds up.

[OriginalGeek]

63. I hope so

I do know other Republicans who hate him but they never liked him and they fear the damage he's doing to their party. Not sure if they fear it enough to do something about it but we'll see I reckon.

[LiberalFighter]

69. If they don't vote it still helps.

Any time they don't vote it is one less vote for Trump. A difference of one vote.

Any time they vote for the Democratic nominee instead of Trump is a net gain of two votes for us.

[Different Drummer]

71. Same here.

DD

[ibegurpard]

22. Don't count on it

His cult will follow him off whatever cliff he jumps and the rest of Republicans like what he's been delivering on. We need to be all hands on deck in November.

[babylonsister]

28. His incompetence besides everything else

makes me and I hope everyone want to vote even more.

[Different Drummer]

72. A-bloody-men!

DD

[Duppers]

62. Exactly!

[BlueJac]

25. Not so fast...

I do not trust voters logic on The Cult leader!

[bucolic_frolic]

26. Incompetence is the tipping point

"Heckuva job, Brownie!"

Bush should have known better. Why was his Katrina response so weak and slow?

Trump hasn't a clue that reality won't bend to his corporate PR Con Job.

"Heckuva job, Trumpie!"

[bobbieinok]

34. Bad FEMA response to hurricane in so FL really hurt HW reelection chances

The visuals of people living in tents protecting their kids with rifles and shotguns were really frightening. It was a world of no law, only what you could provide yourself.

One of 1st things Bill did was rebuild FEMA

[paulkienitz]

27. I think he was already going to lose.

The number of people who voted for him and then became disillusioned is not a huge percentage of the population, but it is a significant number of swing voters, plus some old-style republicans. On the other hand, people who didn't like him before but do now are practically nonexistent.

Some will argue that there'll be a lot of vote suppression and other cheating, but I say that they already had those about as fully deployed in 2016 as they do now. Trump won Wisconsin by just ~23k votes when ten times that number had been suppressed, and he won Arizona by ~91k when three times that number had been suppressed. I don't think he has any path to getting those close states back now.

But there's always the worry that our party will once again find a way to lose, so having him screw up so badly on this issue in such a public and quotable way is definitely reassuring electorally (though not for our health, of course).

[berksdem]

37. I will just say that I disagree...

we are dealing with a cult and no matter what cheeto does or say Trumpers will vote.

[Turin_C3PO]

45. Not all of his supporters

are hardcore, though. About 10% are people who just nominally support him. Polls show that. If the economy collapses or his response to this virus continues being horrible, he will lose many of those supporters and lose the election.

[berksdem]

48. I sincerely hope...

love the FZ avatar btw!

[edhopper]

38. I have seen no evidence from posts I see on Facebook

That Trump supporters have turned.

He is still doing everything right.

[Flaleftist]

42. They don't need to.

We just need some people who didn't show up in 2016 to show up in 2020 and his handling of things right now just might make that happen.

[Turin_C3PO]

46. We don't need his cult.

All we need are the Obama voters who turned to Trump. If we get even a fraction of them back, we can’t lose.

[calimary]

40. From NYMag to God's screen!

[seta1950]

41. Yes

I sure hope you’re right

[blueinredohio]

43. It's time for the 25th amendment. Before we are bankrupt.

[Miigwech]

54. "King killer" ... corona virus

[Ligyron]

68. Oh, good catch!

[Jrsygrl96]

56. I hope

they are correct. Even though I live in an eastern blue state, my area is swimming with MAGAts. Just today at lunch, a substitute teacher asked if we watched 45's CDC presser. We said no, and she went on to brag about how great and animated he was. I pulled up a snippet of another one of his recent incoherent rants and she said the media must have cut out parts to make it look incoherent. Under Bush, she would have called herself a Republican moderate. Now she is full on cult MAGAt. That is where they have gone. Too much Fox Noise for way too long. Critical thinking skills and reasonability are dead! There is NO WAY these people will ever see what is true or real. I have tried to reach them. They only make excuses and believe 45 is just being persecuted. They truly believe he was sent by God!

[Meowmee]

77. Great and animated

Wtf was she watching???? She is delusional. He was there for 3-4 minutes, praising himself etc. looking terrified the whole time and drugged, nothing specific about the virus except how great he is doing, LOL, and everything was about the induuuuustries and how they will be saved, then he ran away because he is terrified of getting the virus, 😹🤯

They all looked TERRIBLE, a bunch of liars and cowards. ALL of them.

[OMGWTF]

58. Shrub wasn't even invited to the ReThuglican's 2008 Convention!

[Hotler]

73. I've learned not to get my hope up. nt

[captain queeg]

74. The nail in Bush's coffin was the banking crisis

[Cha]

75. Sealed his own fate one again.. like with getting

himself Impeached

[elleng]

76. and it's a great thing.

Watching A NIGHT TO REMEMBER, The crew and passengers of the Titanic fight to survive when the legendary ship strikes an iceberg, and feeling optimistic about TODAY. Weird, eh?

[MFM008]

79. It figures

It would take a " biblical " plague to rid ourselves of
Such evil.

[John Fante]

80. Trump wasn't going to win anyway. No FBI investigation, no Comey bomb, no DNC hacks.

The public is more savvy with regards to Russian meddling and the Bernie Bro shenanigans that were effective in softening up HRC are backfiring as we speak.

Gump has to run on his abysmal record this time. He didn't have to in 2016.

[DarthDem]

83. Good post

The same attacks that softened up Hillary, just as you put it, aren't new this time and they aren't seeing success.

[totodeinhere]

96. I hope so but who knows what tricks the Russians might have up their sleeve. n/t

[WePurrsevere]

81. Hopefully but we also shouldn't underestimate...

the power of stupidity, greed and Putin's influence. I plan on fighting just as hard for our candidates for president, the senate and house as I would if all of this hadn't happened.

[Awsi Dooger]

82. I don't know how anyone can be confident in defeating an incumbent

I'm hopeful but if forced to wager I would definitely wager on the incumbent. Situational influence is vastly more significant than day to day stuff.

We need Trump's approval on 538 to drop back to 40 or 41% level. At that point I'll start to believe we might pull this out.

Incumbency wouldn't be quite as meaningful without the electoral slant toward the GOP. Those two variables combined are what gives Trump a much greater chance than is accepted around here.

[cwydro]

84. People have been predi ting his downfall since he entered the primary.

I’ll believe it when I see it.

[VOX]

88. 45 & Rebublikans have a reptilian sense of survival.

And within the impenetrable membrane of the Trumposphere, all is well— this virus pandemic is being cast as everyone’s fault but 45’s.

His cult followers will not desert him. Corporations and the 1% will not stop investing billions into his re-election campaign. Project Veritas will not stop its infiltration of the Democratic Party. Fox “News” will still sing his praises. Breitbart will not stop being the unflushable toilet of disinformation.

The ONLY way to knock out 45 is at the ballot box. Even that’s an uphill battle, given gerrymandering, voter suppression, shortage of polling places, etc. But he CAN be beaten, if progressives and Democrats will just row in the same direction .

[Blue_Tires]

89. LOL at that!

"But it seems more likely that Trump has finally made his unfitness for office so blatant that even his own supporters will notice."

Yeah, don't hold your breath on that one... The Trumpers in Peoria will happily sacrifice their grandmothers as long as they get to keep their guns and open season hunting of minorities...

But Chait is probably correct... It's just that I'm really pissed that people have to DIE before the nation wakes the fuck up.

[lambchopp59]

92. Holiday wishes... a bit premature... LOL

[blakstoneranger]

93. REMEMBER--HE'S LUCKY

Trump really only has one thing going for him---HE'S LUCKY!! He doesn't have great luck, but he's lucky enough to have stayed rich as long as he has. So don't count him out yet--we'll have to see how good his luck is between now and november.

[totodeinhere]

95. I think we are in uncharted territory. Who knows what nightmare scenarios might play

out? What if Joe Biden catches it? What if it gets so bad that the entire infrastructure of our government falls apart? After all, it's not just Republicans who could be affected by this. Speaker Pelosi who of course is second in line in the presidential succession is 79 years old and would be very vulnerable if she catches the virus.

So I am not going to start celebrating Trump's demise just yet. It could be the demise of a lot more than just him.

[maxrandb]

99. Never underestimate the media's ability to convince a minority in the electoral majority

that Donnie Shit for Brains has handled this like a genius.